Gurdgiev’s Friday Buzzkill

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…due to high birth rates, and collapsed employment levels, ameliorated by massive emigration, Ireland is the worst performing country of ALL SOEs [Small Open Economies] (in fact we are the worst performing country amongst all Advanced Economies). This distinction was earned for the first time (since 1980) in 2011, the year when this Coalition came to power.

 

Employment rate in Ireland – beating wrong records (Constantin Gurdgiev, Tre Economics)

32 thoughts on “Gurdgiev’s Friday Buzzkill

  1. David Higgins

    Employment rate is different to UNemployment rate.

    I’m surprised he isn’t looking at that measure instead.

    There’s no denying we’ve seen massive unemployment since the crash.

    His little jibe at the co-alition is childish and surprising for an economist. He knows the situation in 2011 was passed on by the last government.

    The real statistics are that we have LESS people on the live register now than we did this time last year.

    Past trends aren’t important. Future ones are.

    1. Tommy

      The only real statistic is full time employment, not unemployment. Unemployment is regularly underestimated for political reasons.

    2. Rosie

      The reason we have fewer people on the live register is because they’ve all emigrated!! And stop apologising for this crowd of incompetents, they knew what they were getting into, they knew how bad it was, but they lied through their teeth just to get into power!! They also knew how easy it would be to keep blaming the previous administration.

      1. C Sharp

        He didn’t apologise, he just pointed out that the coalition coming to power the month the figures started dipping below the next country up is irrelevant, which it is.

        1. jon

          @David and C Sharp. Did either of you read the blog post before commenting?

          “This distinction was earned for the first time (sine 1980) in 2011, the year when this Coalition came to power.

          Of course, the problem is not solely due to the present Government policies, but the chart above hardly supports the claim that this Government has delivered significant gains in employment. “

          1. C Sharp

            Jon,

            Yes I did.

            “but the chart above hardly supports the claim that this Government has delivered significant gains in employment. “

            No it doesn’t, but then that’s not the claim Contantin seems to be making is it?

            It doesn’t suggest the opposite either though, which does seem to be his point.

    1. David Higgins

      Of course they do, but Constantin is going for drama by just looking at open economies.

      Lies, damned lies and statistics.

      Compare our changes in unemployment over the past two years against the rest of Europe and you’ll see a very different story.

      Unemployment has risen sharply in the PIGS countries and elsewhere in Europe over the past two years.

      In Ireland unemployment has stayed much the same.

      Notice how I only used one ‘I’ in PIGS

      Italy, not Ireland.

      1. steve white

        isn’t us being an open economy suppsoed to be our greatest strenght so why not compare us to other SOE’s

  2. mark

    Employment rate can be low if there are a lot school age children relative to other countries. This is what Gurdgiev refers to with his mention of “high birth rates”.

    Does Gurdgiev want us to send our kids into the mines to get our employment rate up?

    Also, even his own graph shows he’s wrong to say we bottomed out in 2011. I can see we were bottom in 2000 aswell – back when unemployment was quite low, but we had a relatively young population.

    In short, the graph is fairly meaningless.

    1. C Sharp

      His seemingly relentless drive to wave negativity in our faces can be tiresome.

      “Hey, stop being optimistic, look at my graph, it’s been really bad”.

      We know Contantin, we lived it.

      Next.

      1. Zaccone

        You forgot the (completely unrelated to his own interests) “INVEST IN GOLD” subtext of his pessimistic releases.

        1. C Sharp

          A sentiment he shares with Max Keiser, who’s fond of the oul silver as well.

          Perhaps, come the apocalypse, they hope to trade their shiny nuggets for access to the Thunderdome.

      2. mark

        If you misread the graph as being ‘badness’ (as the man seems to want) you’d think that we had low employment during the celtic tiger years. Actually we had effectively full employment during those years, and one of the lowest unemployment rates in the EU. At one point 25% of all new jobs in Europe were in Ireland. 25%.

        All that graph is saying is that our population is young (which is a good thing, economically). And we know that already.

        Gurdgiev is getting lazy.

  3. Mrs Stapleton

    For such a self-satisfied man, he’s incredibly lazy. He has created an opinion (things are actually getting much worse) and uses data selectively to support that opinion.

    He craves the attention – look at his childish tweets about not being invited onto certain radio stations – but has stopped doing his homework.

    As others have pointed out, that chart doesn’t show what he is saying it shows, and it doesn’t tell the story he wants to tell.

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