ANOTHER Bottom?

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36 thoughts on “ANOTHER Bottom?

  1. Arbs

    “Another bottom”: crikey broadsheet.ie, are you trying to wind up ABM again – you’ll send him into another telling frenzy!

  2. stoneruile

    I was reading the Indo (found it in Mc Donalds) on Saturday and couldn’t believe my eyes. There was an article saying property prices had risen month on month for the last three months.

    1. Sido

      The rise in property prices is now a regular Indo troll.

      An article around the 15th Dec 2012 was remarkable inasmuch as it suggested that the “smart money” had already moved back into property.
      And as a consequence the killing the average tw*t in the street could make had been reduced. That’s the regular fate of the simple minded though.

  3. Leaning to the centre

    Nah huh! To be a new bottom it’ll need to drop below June (all properties – National), August (Dublin houses)

  4. paul

    only the cheerleaders of the septic tiger (the newspapers) are in cahoots with certain property representatives bigging up the property market (their livelihoods rely on it). Everybody knows prices are still heading south. Cash transactions are well below asking prices, unfortunately you HAVE to rely on anecdotal evidence for that by it’s very nature. Similarly rent prices, that every month upon every year they say are going up, simply not true.

  5. JP

    In Nordie land we somehow manage to produce an official houseprice index (with hedonic regressions, ie. comparing like-with-like) which includes all sales, including cash sales and repos. It can’t be that hard, the Revenue will have the data.

      1. JP

        As mentioned above the PPR includes cash transactions – the CSO only works from mortgage transactions. Daft are already using the PPR data.

  6. teal

    it was less than 10 years ago that penalty points were introduced for traffic violations – and the gardai were drawing up their own tables (rulers and all) because of the lack of computerisation to collect and store the data. there has always been a lag in terms of utilising technology and efficiency when it comes to the collection of data that may actually serve and/or protect the public. http://historical-debates.oireachtas.ie/D/0565/D.0565.200304160002.html

    1. cluster

      To be fair, the Guards threatened all sorts of industrial action when a new computerised system was being introduced to make their roleas easier and more effective.

  7. Iwerzon

    I’m delighted house prices are dropping – I might actually seriously think of making the plunge if they continue to ‘normalise’ and become a reality for many like me and herself.

    1. John MCork

      CSO stats exclude cash buyers which is really lacking in accuracy in today’s market. Banks are not lending so cash buyers are a bigger proportion than ever but sure we won’t let a simple fact get in the way of a good conspiracy theory.

  8. paddy de plastered

    Roll on the reposessions and the effects of the property tax and then maybe we will see the bottom.
    The stay of execution on repo sessions is artificially inflating the market and reducing available stock.
    Beleaguered homeowners need to suck it up.

  9. General Waste

    Any of you lot actually in the market at the moment? Dublin house prices (especially Southside, especially 3 & 4 bed) are on the rise. No doubt about it.

    We’re currently house-hunting and demand for family homes in decent locations (on both sides of the Liffey) is far out-stripping supply.

    1. JimmyV

      I’m looking too and it’s the decent locations that’s the killer

      But there’s LOADS of gaffs at decent prices in places that are… a bit rough

  10. Counter Punch

    From an economic perspective, Irish residential property prices are still correcting down towards historically normal levels. If the Irish experience mirrors that of other countries that experienced similar bubbles in property, then prices will drop more than 70% from their peak before stabilising at around the -70% mark.

    Unfortunately for the Irish situation, a massive oversupply of vacant inventory (circa 300,000 units within a total stock of 2,000,000 residential units) and net emigration (mostly affecting the First Time Buyer cohort) has the potential to push prices down a lot further.

    But they’re just the facts. I’m sure the marketing departments of the estate agents will spin a more palatable story.

    1. cluster

      You may well be right on the -70% but you are bing a bit too gloomy on your other points.

      1) Much of the over-supply is in areas where it is not needed nor will it ever be needed. So in many other areas there is an under-supply.
      2) We may be experiencing net emigration (approx 34000 per annum) but the population is still growing.

      1. BrianD

        In reality, topline population growth is a red-herring. The only group in the country that matters to the property market is the mid-twenty to mid-thirty somethings … the group that are FTB’s and doing the new household formation (making new families).

        The younger half of that group are exactly those worst hit by unemployment, so little or no savings to put towards a house purchase and the overall age profile is the group that makes up the majority of those emigrating. Have all the topline population growth you like … babies won’t be buying for another 30 years.

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