Dr Kieran McQuinn who published a paper this morning for the ESRI, claiming houses could be undervalued up to anywhere between 12 and 27%
Yesterday, the ESRI published a paper called Projected Population Change and Housing Demand: A County Level Analysis by Edgar Morgenroth.
Reporting on the paper, yesterday’s Irish Times said:
From 2011 to 2021 an additional 180,000 households across the State will need somewhere to live. The current oversupply of houses in vacant or “ghost estates” will be able to accommodate about half that number, leaving a need for 90,000 houses or apartments to be built between 2011 and 2021, or an average of 12,500 each year.
Today, Dr Kieran McQuinn published his academic paper, entitled Bubble, Bubble Toil and Trouble? An Assessment of the Irish Housing Market for the ESRI.
On Dr McQuinn’s report, today’s Irish Times says:
The ESRI predicts real Irish house prices will grow by a further 8 per cent this year and by 9 per cent in 2015, before moderating to growth rates of 4.9 per cent and 3.9 per cent in 2016 and 2017. Population growth alone will require about 25,000 houses to be built annually, it said, whereas only 15,000 are projected to be built next year.
The report’s author, Kieran McQuinn, dismissed any suggestion that the recent level of price growth constituted another bubble. He said the stock of mortgage credit is still falling while the level of transactions was still registering negative growth. But he did warn that a prolonged period of sustained price growth could turn it into a bubble.
H/T: Rob Kitchin