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A table in relation to job creation claims in Ireland by Constantin Gurdgiev

Further to the recent claims from a junior minister that the Fine Gael/Labour coalition have been creating more than 1,000 jobs a week

Adjunct assistant professor of finance at Trinity College Dublin, Constantin Gurdgiev writes on his True Economics blog:

There is a simple matter of arithmetic.

Recall that the current Government came into power at the end of 1Q 2011. Let us suppose the Government really got down to ‘creating jobs’ by 1Q 2012. Which means the Government has been at its jobs game for roughly 14-15 quarters through 3Q 2015 or, at the lower end 3 years and a half.

That means that the Government should have created “over” 182,000 jobs in that period. This benign to the Minister claim, because if we are to look at the record of the entire duration of the Government, his claim would have equated to roughly 221,000 jobs created.

Keep the two numbers in your mind: we are told that the Government has ‘created’ either more than 182,000 or more than 221,000 jobs over its tenure, depending on where one starts to count.

Now, consult CSO QNHS database – the source of official counts for numbers in employment.

Between the end of 1Q 2012 and 3Q 2015 (the latest for which we have data), total employment rose 158,000. But wait, these are not all jobs. 4,500 of that increase is in the category of Assisting Relative. And 121,200 of these additions are employees, including schemes. Beyond this, the above increase also includes 30,100 new (added) self-employed with no employees.

It is hard to assume that the Government can claim it ‘created’ self-employment jobs where there is not enough activity to hire staff, or that it increased the need to help relatives.

Numbers speak for themselves. By the very best metric, Government is more than 1/2 year shy of the lowest end of the claim of ‘more than 1,000 jobs created per week’. It is more than 1/2 year shy of the claim that there were ‘1,000 jobs created per week’.

‘More than 1,000 jobs per week’ Government Claims v Reality (True Economics)

4 thoughts on “One Job

  1. fmong

    the original blog post by Damien English is completely bonkers

    https://damienenglish.wordpress.com/2016/01/23/future-proofing-the-irish-economy-through-skills-research-innovation/

    A few years ago the Irish people, and the Irish economy hit the pain barrier but we have kept on going on the road to recovery.

    Now a few miles short of the finish line to achieve full employment, who pops up at the final water station with burgers and beers encouraging you to party again but Micheal Martin. When really what you need is an isotonic drink that will steady you and keep you going. Likewise Fine Gael’s Long Term plan is the isotonic drink that will keep the will keep the economy steady and well on the road to full employment.

    eh.. what?

    1. Christopher

      WTF. Apart from the terrible language Ireland is a LONG way off full employment last time I looked at the figures.

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