Political analyst and founder of Irish Election Stats David Higgins (above) writes:
Your readers might like to know that Irish Election Stats has launched this morning with probability figures for all candidates standing at the election.
I’ve been working on a statistical model for the Irish elections over the past year. It incorporates opinion polls, past elections’ results and candidate data. As polls change over the next two weeks, the forecasts will update on the site.
Previously: Living In Fear
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There be no Soc Dems in my district so all I want to know is how best to cast a vote against O’Snodaigh…. :)
Oh, and nice site… look forward to giving it a go over the weekend!
There are no soc Dems in my area either. It is a pity. I was waiting for one to pop up.
Same. All I have is James Reilly’s smug mush to look at. Gick.
Vote for Devine and ignore him altogether.
We’ll cancel each other out so.
Why do you dislike O’Snodaigh? (Genuine question. I’m trying to learn.)
I am lucky enough to be in Dublin West with Joan Burton.
I feel I am doing a service to the country by voting for someone else.
She is also on 4% probability of getting in. I like those odds..
Likewise.
Looking forward to a nice cold glass of schadenfreude when she gets her marching orders.
I would totally drink a wine called schadenfreude. And I’d imbibe it through a hobo’s jocks for added piquancy.
I’d drink it standing on the deck of my dinghy called “Dignity”.
Nice Deacon Blue pull there
She’s also popped up here in Fingal. I had hoped to be spared this.
Yes, yes, yes, Fingal, you said, but where EXACTLY?
I need to know for April when the legs are done!
I’ll send you the message by decodable pigeon. Highly sensitive information, the unveiling of the legs. Watch for my signal.
Only 48 more sleeps!
Are we gonna have to slip bromide in your tea again, Bertie?
It’s fine Neilo, I’m like a dog chasing a car, I wouldn’t know what to do if I ever actually caught one.
No particular side to shill for here but those predictions are seriously way off….SF won’t take that many seats and FF will probably get more seats than he calculates. Alan Kelly will regrettably poll much better in Tipperary than predicted here. Michael Ring coming 4th in Mayo? Some of the local predictions defy all expectations. That said, the only poll that counts is the one on election day, going forward in fairness.
I’m predicting 70-72 seats between the Republican Parties. Plus 3 Social Dems. Hey ho.
Roisin Shortall Minister for Health………………..
The “bonus seat” forecasting is notoriously difficult. I assume they have sought to avoid it to some degree, and just go on the basis of first pref alone, which is understandable, albeit as you say there may be some obvious ‘errors’ in the likely forecast v outcome.
Great site btw.
If you have any experience of the Tally
Its not.
Look at Dublin West
Their two poll toppers will not transfer to Joan. Leo’ll get a few of ’em, but thats all.
But when Joan is eliminated. Look were her transfers will go. Back to the Poll Toppers. When the early batch of eliminations take place, all those transfers will not transfer to the Government Duet either.
Prediction. Head on Block time. That Green might out run Joan.
which parties are the republican parties Frilly?
FF SF
Cork South Central- SF 100% probability of getting a seat?? Martin and McGrath facing the cliff edge?
Buddy, you put the figures in wrong
Brilliant site
But from Dublin South Central, Eric Byrne is not going to produce that result
Also in Dublin West. Joan is deffo a gonner. Varadkar will not have enough transfers to dig her out.
Yay!
BTW that vote for Noonan is crazy. No wonder they’ve no Luck in Limerick. A pox on anyone that votes that gimp afaic
Is there a column this week Frillser?
Try next door Bert
Yep, just saw it :)
Making this site sound very 3 dimensional.
They need to show the FF/LAB/SF coalition which is very possible and a more likely one that FG/LAB/Loads of others
This guy was on the journal. I still see he’s insufferable