Total Probability

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Political analyst and founder of Irish Election Stats David Higgins (above) writes:

Your readers might like to know that Irish Election Stats has launched this morning with probability figures for all candidates standing at the election.

I’ve been working on a statistical model for the Irish elections over the past year. It incorporates opinion polls, past elections’ results and candidate data. As polls change over the next two weeks, the forecasts will update on the site.

Irish Election Stats

Previously: Living In Fear

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32 thoughts on “Total Probability

  1. Cup of tea anyone?

    I am lucky enough to be in Dublin West with Joan Burton.
    I feel I am doing a service to the country by voting for someone else.

    She is also on 4% probability of getting in. I like those odds..

    1. Bertie Blenkinsop

      Likewise.

      Looking forward to a nice cold glass of schadenfreude when she gets her marching orders.

      1. Neilo

        I would totally drink a wine called schadenfreude. And I’d imbibe it through a hobo’s jocks for added piquancy.

      1. Bertie Blenkinsop

        Yes, yes, yes, Fingal, you said, but where EXACTLY?
        I need to know for April when the legs are done!

        1. meadowlark

          I’ll send you the message by decodable pigeon. Highly sensitive information, the unveiling of the legs. Watch for my signal.

          1. Bertie Blenkinsop

            It’s fine Neilo, I’m like a dog chasing a car, I wouldn’t know what to do if I ever actually caught one.

  2. Willie Banjo

    No particular side to shill for here but those predictions are seriously way off….SF won’t take that many seats and FF will probably get more seats than he calculates. Alan Kelly will regrettably poll much better in Tipperary than predicted here. Michael Ring coming 4th in Mayo? Some of the local predictions defy all expectations. That said, the only poll that counts is the one on election day, going forward in fairness.

    1. Frilly Keane

      I’m predicting 70-72 seats between the Republican Parties. Plus 3 Social Dems. Hey ho.

      Roisin Shortall Minister for Health………………..

      1. Owen C

        The “bonus seat” forecasting is notoriously difficult. I assume they have sought to avoid it to some degree, and just go on the basis of first pref alone, which is understandable, albeit as you say there may be some obvious ‘errors’ in the likely forecast v outcome.

        Great site btw.

        1. Frilly Keane

          If you have any experience of the Tally

          Its not.

          Look at Dublin West
          Their two poll toppers will not transfer to Joan. Leo’ll get a few of ’em, but thats all.

          But when Joan is eliminated. Look were her transfers will go. Back to the Poll Toppers. When the early batch of eliminations take place, all those transfers will not transfer to the Government Duet either.

          Prediction. Head on Block time. That Green might out run Joan.

  3. Davey T

    Cork South Central- SF 100% probability of getting a seat?? Martin and McGrath facing the cliff edge?

    Buddy, you put the figures in wrong

  4. Frilly Keane

    Brilliant site
    But from Dublin South Central, Eric Byrne is not going to produce that result
    Also in Dublin West. Joan is deffo a gonner. Varadkar will not have enough transfers to dig her out.
    Yay!

    BTW that vote for Noonan is crazy. No wonder they’ve no Luck in Limerick. A pox on anyone that votes that gimp afaic

  5. Tish Mahorey

    They need to show the FF/LAB/SF coalition which is very possible and a more likely one that FG/LAB/Loads of others

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