Gerry Adams (left) and Michaél Martin
The author has done the maths and checked the form.
In a week’s time we will have a grand green coalition.
Frilly Keane writes:
Since this thing was called, it’s been poll-over after poll-over, helter skelter games with the seat numbers, and errors of margin that only qualify one poll as being identical to another.
I’m not complaining I love this sport; from the selection conventions to the church gate durty’shoulders to get ta’the spare spot in the funeral party’ pew; from the state of the Leader debates to the lawlessness of the Count.
I’m positively horny about your Frill-bit this week.
Hopefully I’ve timed this particular climax just as Noonan is finally recognised for the creep he is, and Enda is still plastered in debate sh1t he can’t scrub off, and Joan. Well. Joan. It’s all over bar the crying speech, the Garda escort into the night, the tributes, the lump sums, the handy gigs, the Marian’s and the Miriam’s.
A Republican Government.
I’m not being sentimental and it’s not my notorious Tiocfidh showing its influence. It’s for real. You read it right. A Republican Government.
From my most recent set of sums, the Shinners have 50 runners, and the FFSakers, 72.
Since polls don’t really consider the PR system, to someone like me who has a nose for the transfer markets, they’re useless.
So I’ve actually gone from Constituency to Constituency and sniffed around the FF/SF candidates one by one meself, and I’ve inspected the local tracks to get a better suss of the running conditions.
So I’m sticking with my New Year’s numbers: 70 – 72 ish seats between the two Republican Parties. I’m going with 37 – 40 Shinner, 33-37 FFSakers. The head is on the block. And I’ve no problem leaving it there since I’m also predicting that Donegal Pearse will fill two more seats on his surplus + transfers.
The Soldiers of Destiny have only themselves to blame for handing The Republican Party Top Table spots over to the Mary-Lous.
And it all started when Mickey Martin refused to let Eamonn O’Cuiv run for the Áras. What the FFs did by snubbing that election was ordain Martin McGuinness as the Republican President, and while Mrs Windsor had a grand time in Cork, she all but curtseyed when Martin Mc came to visit, she made him a Statesman. The King of the North.
I still believe that if O’Cuiv had’a ran, Martin McGuinness wouldn’t have seen a quarter of those 1st preferences. In fact, I don’t think Martin would have ran against O’Cuiv. (Ach sin sceal eile.)
It may look like Mickey and his backseat bhoys are doing everything they can to run away from the banner they still use “The Republican Party” with their NO NO NO to any mention of a Coalition with the other Republican Party. But I actually think they’re scared sh1tless. Not so much about the prospect of Martin Ferris giving one’a them a good clatter, but that they will be found out.
Found out for the Empty Shirt, H.dips, Jobs for the Boys, Dynasty Seat Fillers, Galway Tent Brigades they really are, and not the Republican Party they got too grand for. The Republican Party they’re afraid of standing up for. The Republican Party they’ve forgotten they once were. The FFs are a scared of where they are from. (That makes them BlueShirts btw)
Over the last few days I’ve being driving myself stupid trying to do the seating arrangements around the Cabinet table. The state the last crowd left the place in is not worth working with, so rather than suggest who could manage the portfolio for both Gaeltacht Affairs AND Natural Resources with any effectiveness; I’ve isolated a few biggies for the purposes of this gig, and bundled in a few portfolios. I have also introduced a third party. You’ll see why in a sec.
Republican Government 2016
Taoiseach Suspended
Tánaiste Suspended
Chief Whip Mary Hanafin. FF. She has to be in there somewhere, but we need to keep her ProLife Family Values (my arse) claws out of Justice, Health, Ed. Hanafin is the ‘wan for this, she’ll have them all in line, and they’d be no blaggarding in the Dáil bar when she’s in charge.
Health: Roisin Shortall. SD. (Best there is for this 14 Billion+ monster) Pearse should be in the gig, but he’s needed somewhere else.
Juniors: Máire Devine. SF. (Just by turning up she’ll out perform Kat’leen Lynch)
Chris Andrews. SF, (also to gig in Justice & Social Welfare)
And if Jim O’Callaghan FF gets past the post, he can do a good job here and with a Justice brief.
Finance: Pearse SF, Michael McGrath FF, and Catherine Murphy SD , the latter working with Banking, Corruption and Statutory Bodies and to double job in Justice. The FFer to focus on Public Expenditure & Reform. But they answer to PoD.
Foreign Affairs Mary Lou. (and a few former Shinner Warriors Gerry, Martin Etc)
Minister for Social Protection etc Joint Venture with Caomhin O C. SF and Timmy Dooley FF. Both daycent, hardworking and not afraid to admit they get it wrong. Both are also savvy enough to know when reach out and seek independent expertise if required.
Justice: Annuder JV: Donnacadh Ó’Laoghaire SF, James Browne FF, & Catherine Murphy SD
Ed: Mickey Martin FF & Carol Nolan SF. Both teachers, I know, but Mickey has big ministry experience and Carol Nolan is a ‘wan to watch imo
Ag, Food Seán Ó’Fearghail FF. Former party whip who is a grafter and does it all without whinging to the press, smirking for the camera and gets his sh1t done. He knows how to work with people so he should pick his own Jrs.
Trade & Transport Willie O’Wee is well able for this as a soloist, but I would shove Niall Collins in here too. Two FFers, without complaining or causing ructions, would make up the damage Marmy O’Rourke did when she was there.
Sports, Tourism, Culchees Etc Martin Ferris & Eamon O’Cuiv
Science, Innovation, Enterprise etc Darren O’Rourke SF. A lad with a CV you won’t see in any of the Big Parties. Doesn’t need a Jnr
Arts Heritage Gaeltacht Seamus Browne SF with a dig out from O’Cuiv
Environment, Community & Local Government John McGuinness FF (No Jrs, no-one would work wi’im tbh) I also think the Shinners should lay’ve him at it. They’ve need to move on from community and local authorities and widen their working profiles into the big budget/ industrial departments. If some ballast is needed, bring Mattie in from the Indo benches.
Communications Energy etc Put Billy Kelliher FF and Eoin O’Broin SF in here. They can manage each other and keep to themselves without anyone knowing they’re Ministers.
Special Minister without Portfolio Gerry. This gig was created originally for Pat Rabbitte back when. Not that I would dream of saying there’s a bitta “same sh1t different bucket” going on, but Gerry can’t add any skills or experience to a Government department, nor is it worth the taxpayer’s indulgence to train him in.
He could do a meet and greet role in Defence and in Foreign Affairs/ Trade. But one thing’s for sure, I can’t wait to see Ur’Ger’reee with his Garda Minders and Drivers.
I didn’t bother with the 15+ other gigs currently held by the last government. Not because I wasn’t arsed but they don’t seem important enough to be taken into consideration.
A few things ye should note before the hidin’ starts.
The majority of the Shinner Candidates have CVs that should put all the other parties to shame. Meritocracy trumps. So Tough Shit to all the usual bigger party suspects, passengers, gender quota winners and waggoneers, (I’m looking at you Colm Keavney btw.) Look at each of those gigs, and picture them filled with FFs& FGers…Did some sick just come into your mouth?
Have an idea about AG. But thought the better of posting it here.
FFs should remember a SF coalition will keep manners on John McGuinness for them.
I deliberately suspended Taoiseach and Tánaiste. I don’t see the need in the short term.
All parties in Government can have their own boss for Ard Fheis speech and to be in charge of the Lotto Syndicate. But the titles n’trappings within the next Government are just Vanity. Health Ed Finance Housing etc need all the Ministerial time, skill and resources they can get.
Remember. Vote early n’often. If you don’t know who to vote for. Give them all your Number 1.
And anyone that votes for Noonan, The Curse of Frilly Keane on ye all. May ye get flooded, again, and again, and again, may ye all get Lime Disease and a dose of the scour that has yere arses burning for a fortnight.
BTW, is yer man in the TV3 tan Noel Cunningham an’ting to Sean Fleming?
Frilly Keane’s column appears here every Friday. Follow her on Twitter: @frillykeane
I understand this is probably at least partial satire, but the laws of physics still need to be respected – how do you get to 79 seats? “70-72” for SF and FF, and, we’ll assume 4-5 for the Soc Dems. That still leaves u almost a handful short. There also doesn’t seem to be any rationale as to just why FF would rather a SF coalition over a FG one.
FRILLY IS SILLY , I THOUGHT WE WERE GOING TO READ A EDUCATED VIEW, INSTEAD IT TURNED INTO A FG/LAB.BASHING.
I BET SILLY FRILLY 100euro THAT SF WON’T GET AN ASSES GALLOP NEAR BEEN INVOLVED IN NEXT GOVERNMENT.
dear tom,
if you hold down CTRL and ALT while you press the number four you’ll get a € symbol.
that way you can shout your head off without ever unlocking caps.
also, if you don’t press any keys you don’t come across as being unable to speak english.
you don’t seem all that bothered, but i thought it was worth mentioning.
You’re forgetting one thing. Sinn Fein won’t go in as the junior party. They voted democratically on it with their members and the members voted No to going in as junior to FF, FG or Labour.
Did I say they were going ta’ be the Juniors there Pete?
Re: Sinn Fein candidates.
What do make of this Frilly?
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/news/poll-both-healyrae-brothers-set-to-be-elected-in-kerry-but-sinn-feins-ferris-is-at-risk-34459457.html
Yeah. I know
( I kinda had Kerry sorted in mevhead before Healy Rea eile caught the gravy train)
But sur why not
That milage
Those wages
Savage expenses
Bonkers pension
And only one campaign to run..
Jobs for the boys right there
The people of Kerry deserve a storm that’s goes through several alphabets
P.S. That poll has a 3 per cent margin of error.
Number of poll respondents: 500
Horses are frightened.
thank god I already emigrated.
that was pointless
And just plain wrong. The reason why: Fianna Fail would be the new SDLP. Fianna Fail know that if they go into government with Sinn Fein they,
(a) legitimise them, guaranteeing FF’ers who currently refuse to vote Sinn Fein would do so next time, and
(b) would be flanked out on the left and Republican side which Sinn Fein would manage with ease.
It’s not gong to happen.
“Vote for SF or FF” says the person who openly defends both blackface and confederate flags as “just a bit of craic”.
Wonderful playing to stereotype there.
A bitta’ve an Indo stretch there now Gav
Yep. I’m proud of my Home of the Dixies tradition and Flags. I’ve even got a stars n’bars bikini. (I’ll tweet a pic for you). And I won’t make apologies for it. I’ll die a rebel.
However. In my memory I only spoke of Blackface ONCE, before this post, and that was to tell ye about a lad who went as Sammy Davis Jnr to an Old Christians Fancy Dress Do almost 30 years ago. And I thought he looked the biz. So.
Do your thing
Indo Gav.
This isn’t an ad hominem argument here. Now you’ve defended blackface (at least) twice, since you’re obviously keeping count, and confederate flags more than that. Way to show your stripes. Whats your stance on making jews or muslims display armbands?
Anyway, nothing Indo about me, I’m afraid. Just cause I think you’re a dreadful self-parody and represent just about everything disappointing and backwards about Irish culture doesn’t mean I’m automatically a blue-shirt wearing, DOB loving, SF hating fascist. Quite the opposite in fact. It might just be that I find both your views and your whole paddy-whackery persona abhorrent?
My worst nightmare, thanks Frilly :(
Good
Depressing. One party wrecked the economy twice in my lifetime, the other spent 30 years in low level civil conflict that wrecked thousands of lives . And 20 years talking about how great they are stopping it.
Jesus.
And WTF is a “Republican” anyway. Can someone define it for me.
its someone who’se gone back to pulling pints
Ba-doom tish! Well played.
One for the Uxbridge English Dictionary.
That’s fantastic Iwerzon
That was amazing, by far your most amusing fantasy piece yet Frilly – it really hit the spot, fair play ;)
Total nonsense.
….em, that’s kinda the idea……
No it’s not Clamp
You’re some gobpoo
Do you seriously want Michael Noonan in Finance insteada Pearse O’Doherty
Or Simon Harris managing the Homeless / Social Housing insteada say Chris Andrews
Who’d do you think is a better Minister for Foreign Affairs Terence Flanagan or Mary Lou?
Or Leo insteada say, Darren O’Rourke
Or Frances Fitz over Carol Nolan
Look in your own constituency
Máire Devine is less deserving if your vote than Cat’trin Byrne and Eric Byrne
You need to cop on ta’ yerself
If the fact that a Sinn Fein Government will cost the taxpayer around a third of an FG led one, is lost on you.
Then that makes you
One’a them
A stupid spoilt self entitled school bhoy brat
Ha! I’ve just described Coveney
If I had thinner skin Frilly :)
Either you have the skin of an elephant or the comprehension on of a flea.
Depends on the time of day and the day of the week.
How will it cost less? The salaries and allowances are the same draw from the Exchequer for all parties. The portion of those salaries/allowances that are unused by deputies will end up in party coffers.
Pensions will be less for start
Gerry won’t get allowed, wha’ a third?, of what Pat Rabbitt is ûcking off with
And so what if it’s going to Party coffers
Bates lobbiests pumping money in
And it definitely bates filling their own pockets
Childish drivel. Doherty hasn’t a clue about Finance. The only defence they ever offer for their hairbrain arithmetic is that “aaar numbaars have been checked by the Depaartment of Finance”. Not true. DoF only provide some input data. They don’t stand over all the second order effects that need to be modelled (i.e. how much economic activity and therefore tax revenue gets chased away if you jack up taxes). Just ‘cos someone talks at 90 mph rattling off dubious “facts” doesn’t mean they understand their brief. All it means is they’re good at preventing any real meaningful interrogation.
Ah would ya give over
Even on his worst day PoD is a better Minister for Finance for ALL of us
Than the misogynist dothery dithering fully fatted pocketed gimp Noonan
Or anyone else in the FG line up
Now that’s a FACT
You mean you’re trying to be taken seriously with this drivel?
Hahahahahaha
This is what I’ve always imagined those notebooks were filled with in John Doe’s apartment.
I like when you come round.
so do I, he funny
Jaysus Frilly, u have all the blushirts upset, be prepared to be ravaged by a savage sheep!
The phrase is “savaged by a dead sheep”.
No, it’s ‘flogging a dead horse’.
The phrase is whatever I say it is, I’m not confined by your blushirt dogma
*Snort* Gotta give it up to you, dav, that was amusing.
or by spelling.
Spelling was introduced to Ireland by Eoin O’Duffy, smuggled in a potato concealed up his hole.
….alongside his head.
a savage dying sheep at that
The only reason the’d form a joint adinistration if they had the numbers
as they are fishing for votes in the same gene pool, however they have a
distrust of each other, will the taste of power overcome the inhibitions
It all depends which of them have the most seats. if SF have the most
FF will trot off and get into bed with FG….its really all about the survival
of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael not the country, and the more paranoid the
media become about the rise of SF, the more they will grow, its simply
the electorate suspision of the governing elite who have a mess of the
running of the Country and then awarded theselves huge salaries and pensions
I’m certain that when their time comes, PIRA/SF will do the right thing and refuse these ‘huge salaries and pensions’ just as they refuse all the allowances for staff and office space etc. that they’re offered in the UK.
In southern optics there is a time lag but FF and SF are definitely from the same gene pool. From what I can see, transfer analysis always misses that the more chance the 2nd has, the more likelihood it will get it.
Another one is not the water charge per se but the ‘We will meter and you WILL pay’ slogan of the then Irish Water. They fc*ked up the most important utility in the history of the state and brought more people on the streets than any other. Interesting how this has not been a serious election issue… so far.
A high five Frilly!!!
if humour is the pinata, the writer of this piece is stevie wonder swinging a feather 3000 miles away under the sea.
Wow – that was; oh my… zing!
I am seriously considering coming back … this made me think again. As much of a male genital as Cameron is, he’s no Gerry Adams.
Love it!
Please put Pierse Doherty as Min for Finance, the man is erudite and knows economics well :)
Mary lou as foreign minister? At least she could bring friends to a Sean Russell Commemoration
Adams for Taoiseach? My ma said I shouldnt trust a man with a beard so I dated a woman with one instead
He fupping doesn’t. If he was that erudite he would not have ended up in DIT. FACT
Ha!
N’ I thought I was the rabble rowser!
Paul,are you implying that DIT is for failures or those who are not well learnt?
Have you had a relationship with anomnom or Jonotti?
Is the sky blue?
I am stating categorically that the majority of those who attend DIT are not the brightest in the land.
How did get she get to such a senior position within Sinn Fein. Anyone ever ask the question. A bunch of lowlifes and if voted in they will be an accurate reflection of the Irish.
Martin Ferris for Minister for Justice
Anyone ever question whether Marylou was in the IRA? A woman rising through the ranks of the Shinners . Is it for show or was she pulling the trigger?
I’m not into betting myself, but just seeing there, 33/1 odds with Paddy Power for a FF/SF government.. You could be onto a nice little earner there Frilly.
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=591647
When the Guard stamped my form to get on the supplementary register, he started laughing saying, ara shur would you be bothered? I’m beginning to think he’s right..
He wasn’t asking you out
To vote
Oh you included SDs too.. that’s 50/1
Is Frilly running in Dublin Central:
http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/candidates/767296-kerry-guinan/
I don’t understand how you can call FF and SF republican parties, there is nothing republican in their track records – that is belief in a nation of citizens equal under the law – both parties seem to believe their adherents are not subject to the same rules of law and taxation as everyone, that those who support them are entitled to a greater share of the fruits of the nation – just because you call yourself something does not make it so
That’s what they call themselves Bull
Mary E. Fitzgibbon, Minister for Health.
Mark Humphrys, Foreign Affairs and Trade.
David Quinn, Education and Skills.
Kate Bopp, Primary Care, Social Care and Mental Health.
Patrick Talbot, Arts, Heritage and the Gaeltacht.
Cora Sherlock, Children and Youth Affairs.
Paddy Manning, Justice and Equality.
And so on.
Oh fupp off we all know what it means in the Irish context.
Sham if it means something different in an Irish context, say a desire to bring about a United Ireland, the implication of FF and SF being republican parties is that all the other parties do not want to achieve that, but that is not the case. SF and FF both wish to bring about a United Ireland and both accept the principle of consent of the people in the 6 counties on this question so their position on a United Ireland is no different from Fine Gael, Labour, Social Democrats, Renua etc….. When SF and FF call themselves Republicans what they really mean is that they are Nationalists, they believe in a fixed idea of national identity as the basis for the state
So what are the possible possible configurations now?
FG / Lab / Soc dems / inds – could be flaky
FF/FG – nope, but ending civil war politics in 2016 has a poetry to it, the Leonard Chen kind.
SF / AAAPBP/ Inds – yeah, but who will be elected 3 months later when the in-fighting & splits happen?
FF/SF – nope
SF /Lab – not going to happen.
Any others?
Even on latest polls, I would expect FF and FG to have 80 seats between them.
There will be no majority government without FF or FG, unless there’s a large swing in the next 4-5 days. The media are trying to manufacture a swing against SF as we speak.
Furthermore, I don’t believe SF will translate support into seats in the way that FF can, and FF stand to gain from transfers amongst, lets face facts, a majority support for FF/FG/Labour.
As of today, I think FF and FG will form a government, and they will split within 18-24 months, or by their second budget. FF won’t ride the polls down for Martin to stay as Táinaiste, and will make or manufacture a grandiose principled exit from government in an attempt to win election 2018. Martin may be toppled prior to this incident, or as part of this incident. Enda if he lasts until then, will be similarly toppled. SF will quietly get on with being the main opposition party and can become the largest party afterwards if the headwinds against FG are strong enough.
If there’s a swing and FG manage to cobble together a coalition without FF, they will play into their hands with a much weakened coalition (measured against 2011) and one or two crises away from a toppled government. You’ll see a much more emboldened FF and SF then, coming from a larger seat base and delivering blows to the government regularly and putting pressure on coalition backbenchers in the process.
The smart move for Enda is to woo FF, and keep them close, rather than waiting for them to strengthen. The smart move for Martin is to stay in opposition, but he might take the bait.
The nightmares continue! We have a collective memory of goldfish.
“The media are trying to manufacture a swing against SF as we speak.”
Actually I think Gerry is doing that all by himself. I listened back to his radio interviews from yesterday. Was stunned at the ineptness. GF would be red faced if Enda was that bad.
SF are *always* the victims, though.
Enda is that bad & more, I’m afraid. Sorry to urinate on your Cheerios.
That’s depressing. I’m glad you said ‘the majority of Shinner candidates’. They’ll have to keep this lad off the tweet machine. http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/rightcol/victims-sister-slams-betrayal-by-election-candidate-chris-andrews-34463844.html
…great analysis Frilly and I’d love if you are right but I think it’s just a bit too aspirational this time round…next time round – and that may only be a matter of months – and this model would be an alternative and attractive option for the numbers to add up. The grouping you suggest need to hold their collective nerve and not betray their supporters like labour did.
Anyone who supports Fine Gael is OK with the vulnerable of our country being oppressed and marginalised even more and a pernicious campaign of oppression and hatred of the less well off.
Anyone who supports SF don’t have that much of a problem with people being burnt alive in hotels, people being forced to be suicide bombers, or child-rapists being spirited out of the country to escape punishment.
This genuinely seems to be the only response FG supporters on here have for every accusation thrown at their beloved party
Maybe it’s not just Enda who endlessly supports the notion that he was dropped on his head as a baby. Maybe it’s an epidemic that effects everybody who has any connection with FG on any level.
Question: Why has Catherine Murphy been waiting nine months for The Department of Finance to release details about the liquidation of IBRC, for which the department has been reprimanded by the Information Commissioner, & for failing to follow guidelines.
Answer: Durrrr…. Gerry Adams was in the IRA,
Very good chance of a FF/SF/SocDem government.
But this is so badly put together. Stop post this crap from Frilly. It’s painful.
Shut your
Stupid potty mouth
This is dreadful. Can Broadsheet please commission someone who at least writes in English?
Nice one again Frilly !! Could well break up many cozy Cartels which have had free hands for Generations now !! Give a No.1 for Ireland & our true faith by many in the True Ideals of a Republic & show ourselves how strong & resourceful we as an Island can be !! Enough of internal Division & Strong Corporate Sectors chewing at our ideals of Dec 1919 !!