Paddy Power odds on the make up of the next government
Polliing is open.
But what are the bookies saying?
Shane Heneghan writes:
The bookies never lose as they say but the odds should be seen both as a reflection of what is likely to happen and where punters money is going.
There are many different books open ranging from betting on the turnout to the results in each of the 40 separate constituencies and, for the record, Laois is the favourite to be the first constituency to return a first count.
When it comes to government formation, the clear favourite remains the ara-sure-it’s-grand coalition of Fine Gael and Fianna Fail. This is not surprising as it is in step with what polls are saying.
It is interesting to note, however, that Betfair, Paddy Power and Ladbrokes have all recently shortened their odds on a Fine Gael minority administration indicating perhaps that a Tallaght strategy style arrangement where Fianna Fail supports a Fine Gael minority government (without taking seats at cabinet) is a strong possibility.
This makes sense in the light of both Civil War parties down playing the idea of a full blown coalition. How stable such a set-up would be is another matter.
Ladbrokes are saying a second election this year is incredibly likely at an unbackable 8/15.
In other news, for those watching out for the potential effect of the new gender quotas regime Paddy Power seems to predict that the number of female representation is likely to remain static quoting odds of 5/6 on it remaining at 19.5% or less.
It should be noted that in the last UK election the betting odds tended to follow the opinion polls, despite the traditionally perceived bias that they traditionally tend to have a bias towards the Conservatives.
Shane Heneghan is a Galway-based psephologist.
Meanwhile…
Gavin McAllister tweetz:
Once again Paddy Power on the ball! Nearly spat my coffee out!
I’d expect FF and FG if they made up a coalition to spin it internationally that two civil war parties have finally made a truce and Ireland is no longer at war and is now an even better country in which to creatively manage your companies finance in such a way that it can avoid paying tax. Double Irish.
I’d usually back the bookies but I find it hard to see this happening. If only for the fact that it would strengthen SF as the largest in opposition, and the largest party in opposition always gets in at some stage.
I’m not ready for an SF govt for at least 20 years
I think Fianna Fáil might split if Martin takes them into coalition with FG.
Would see lot leaving either party. Dunno if the young guns or the older would be more likely to leave, maybe a combination.
Would be kinda ironic if they left and ended up forming their own party
Continuity FF and Real FG.
Well let us know when you are ready Harry. We’ll be waiting patiently for your signal.
Ha, thanks I appreciate it ☺
A FG/FF coalition will expose the sham of 80 years of pretend opposition between the wealthy farmers party and the wealthy businessmen party.
And it will open up the ground for a strong left/centre left in Sinn Fein which will be in Government in 2021 :)
The main reason FF and FG exist as separate parties is to block the Left and deny people real power. That’s why they kept using Labour to prop them up, so Labour could never grow into a genuine part of the left.
I agree with you on that point, an FG FF coalition would be the best possible result for sinn fein and this is exactly what they’re after
FF / SF @ 33/1
FG/Lab/Renua/Other @ 14/1
off to split my mortgage on these two
I doubt an FG/FF coalition would lead to the left/right alignment of politics that has been fabled for decades. For one thing, between them FF/FG would have a tight monopoly on electoral resources (money, contacts, branches)
Secondly, the left would still find things to fight over. They always do. D’ya reckon Mary Lou and Joan will be BFFs the minute Enda and Michael set up shop?
I think an FG/FF coalition could potentially be as immovable as the ANC is in South Africa.