‘I Suspect It Will Look Very Like What It Looks Like Today’

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RTÉ reports:

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar is to make a make a a “positive statement to the country to provide reassurance on Brexit” within the next hour, according to the Tánaiste.

Simon Coveney said that an agreement on the wording around the issue of a border on the island of Ireland is very close.

He said that progress was made this morning and the discussions are moving in the right direction. Mr Coveney added that he hopes there will be an agreement on a “balanced wording” in the next hour.

Mr Varadkar is to make a public statement on Phase 1 of the Brexit negotiations at 2.30pm.

The Tánaiste said he believes the border between Ireland and the UK will not change from how it appears today.

“I suspect it will look very like what it looks like today which is to remain largely an invisible border, with no barriers to movement and trade and the normality on the island of Ireland, as we’ve grown to appreciate over the last 20 years,” he said.

Taoiseach to make ‘positive statement’ on Brexit talks (RTE)

Meanwhile…

The Guardian reports:

“The British government appears to have bowed to the Republic of Ireland’s demand that Northern Ireland will stay aligned with key EU laws and regulations after Brexit so as to ensure that a hard border does not return to the island.

“According to sources, MEPs were told by the chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, that Theresa May had conceded after days of intense talks that the province would be treated as a special case.”

A draft of the text of a 15-page joint statement between the European commission and the British government is said to include a commitment in paragraph 48 that “in the absence of agreed solutions the UK will ensure that there continues to be continued regulatory alignment” with the internal market and customs union.

MEPs say UK has conceded on Ireland border in Brexit talks (The Guardian)

Rollingnews

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71 thoughts on “‘I Suspect It Will Look Very Like What It Looks Like Today’

  1. Charger Salmons

    “in the absence of agreed solutions the UK will ensure that there continues to be continued regulatory alignment” with the internal market and customs union.

    That’s how diplomats earn their corn.

    If there’s a trade deal everything stays the same.If there isn’t it’s a Hard Brexit.

    Nothing has changed.

    No-thing.

    1. Brother Barnabas

      Time to lay off the Pinotage, me old flower. Don’t say you didn’t know when you saw that €4 label that it wouldn’t end well.

      1. Charger Salmons

        I can’t hear you over the deafening screech of your favourite Bowie record Tin Machine.
        It’s either that or someone on here has a dodgy timing belt.

        1. Brother Barnabas

          I never said it was my favourite :-)

          You did though announce that you’d bought a crate of “really nice South African pinotage”, wholly ignorant to the fact that its essentially cooking wine. Haven’t laughed so much since the Queen Mother caught her t1ts in the mangle.

          I’ll admit I felt moderate pity for you when you admitted to picking it up for €4 in Aldi.

          1. Listrade

            In fairness, Brother, I literally lost sleep this weekend fuming at the comment that without Tin Machine there would be no Nirvana.

    1. Charger Salmons

      Brexit talks move on to second stage with agreement by all parties.

      You’re getting desperate now,old cock.

      1. Brother Barnabas

        How could I be desperate, I don’t even care!

        But you do appear to be a little tense today.

      2. martco

        I’ll see your delusion @Charger and raise you Arrrghleean throwing her toys outa the pram just now

        Wont be long till Teresa is getting her P45 and the Scots are voting again

        the new Empire not getting off to the best of starts I’d say

      3. TheRealJane

        I must say, the brexity spirit is a wonderful thing to behold. There is literally nothing that cannot be construed as anything other than the complete success of brexit and the defeat of the brexiter’s deadliest enemy, reality.

        It’s going to be brilliant and this astounding climbdown is proof that it’s all going amazingly well.

        I give it till teatime for the UK to have made arrangements for some kind of association with other European countries, probably around common customs, regulatory unity and reciprocal citizen’s rights. They might suggest that it’d be great to join a common travel area and currency. They will be prepared to pay billions for the access to this organisation.

        Now, a name for this novel idea.

  2. Listrade

    Nothing to see here. Britain went into a negotiation and conceded on all points. That my friends is the art of negotiation.

    1. Charger Salmons

      1. The UK went into the negotiations with a commitment to honouring its existing commitments to the EU. This it has agreed. A further transition period has been negotiated between the two sides and the UK has agreed to continue with its normal budgetary commitments during this time.It would have had to pay them anyway so it has conceded nothing.Anyone remember €100 billion ?
      2. Citizen’s rights – the UK offered a deal on this before negotiations had started as the EU wanted to use this as a bargaining point.What has been agreed in negotiations is what the UK originally offered with a fudge over the ECJ.
      3. The Irish Border – the UK has successfully fudged a deal to make sure nothing formal is agreed until the end of trade negotiations when the deal will likely mean everything remains the same as it is today – under QMV terms.
      All in all I reckon that’s a pretty good negotiation.

      1. Listrade

        Which is all the EU wanted. Nothing concrete, commitments to show it had a plan and pay the money the UK owed.

        So for all the puffing of chests and blathering in the press about being held to ransom, the UK as done exactly as it was asked to do. Exactly as asked.

        1. Charger Salmons

          Except for the ludicrous amounts of money being conjured up out of thin air and the idea that Northern Ireland would somehow remain in a customs union and single market.
          Well worth 7 months of hard negotiations which appear to be running according to the timetable laid out.

          1. Listrade

            There was never a ludicrous amount of money and it was never conjured out if thin air. It was actual debt accrued over 40 years of EU membership. The only difference was how it was reported…by the British press. €113bn was the gross figure, but was never the actual figure the EU wanted. The EU took into account UK share of EU assets and the British rebate and used a figure of €60-65bn as the discussion point.

            Funnily enough, more or less what was agreed (we don’t know the actual figure).

            About as ludicrous as if you were getting a divorce and splitting up assets like the house.

            Theresa May said no hard border. EU don’t want a hard border. NI would be the only border. That’s why the EU sees it as more than just an Irish thing.

            But there is no there no other model for a soft border without something similar to Norway (even then customs is an issue, ask the Swedish about trade with Norway). But that would mean freedom of movement and May didn’t want that. No freedom of movement can only mean hard border with current policy.

            So all EU wanted was a plan, as in WTF how the F are you going to maintain the peace deal, have a soft border and restrict freedom of movement? How about coming up with a plan so we can see what the deal is and then we’ll move on to trade.

            The demands only extended as far as give us a clue as to how you’ll sort out NI.

      2. Nigel

        The fundamental achievement here is symbolised by the style of CS’s mode of expression in spinning it. Instead of braying like a racist ass, he is obliged to expresses himself in something resembling the mode of a civilised adult human being. As below, so above. ‘Enjoy’ it while it lasts.

        1. Charger Salmons

          You know when you have to speak very slowly to someone who doesn’t understand simple concepts ….

          1. Nigel

            Are you actually typing slowly because you think you’ll be easier to understand? Are you also typing LOUDLY?

        2. Ban the Poo. Ooh-er!

          poor Nigel. ” I must be right and I must tell others they are wrong. WRONG! WRONG!!”

    2. Go A Way

      Incredible how successful the much derided strategic communication unit has been at duping you and other tigers here. Your naïveté would be touching if it wasn’t so laughable.

  3. Steve

    Sure the shinners could take up their seats in SW1P and end the leverage Arlene has over Theresa. End of story. Brits go into phase 2

    Who would see that coming

    1. bisted

      …all the people in the north who voted for the shinners and increased their percentage of the vote wont see that coming…unlike labour, the shinners tend to keep to their election pledges…

  4. RiderOnTheStorm

    This whole thing is stuck.

    Arlene has held the line so, Juncker still talking to May……therefore he can’t notify Tusk……therefore Leo told to postpone and is redrafting his spiff

    Clearly a bad case of premature speculation.

  5. some old queen

    If they have conceded that NI remains within the single market & customs union after Brexit then that places the customs border along the sea. That is not a fudge, that is a complete climb-down. The ball is now in the DUP’s court. Will they walk? I doubt it. Time will tell.

    This week is looking good already.

    1. Charger Salmons

      The whole point is that they haven’t conceded that.
      ” Continued regulatory alignment ” in some key areas is not the same as staying in the single market or customs union.
      This is a classic EU fudge that keeps the show on the road and the DUP on board until a trade deal is reached which will mean everything remains the same.
      Remember the old EU adage ? Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.
      Hence those celebratory head-bangers on here will end up with a headache in the morning.
      Like this nutter who somehow managed to be elected Mayor of London telling lies.
      https://twitter.com/SadiqKhan/status/937687376167604225

        1. Charger Salmons

          That’s the point.No-one knows.It’s a fudge.
          But basically if the UK and EU agree a trade deal with no tariffs between borders then nothing will change in Ireland.
          If there is no deal then there will be a hard border.
          So nothing has changed.

          1. Steve

            I’m going to speak slowly so you can understand.

            The EU will not negotiate a free trade agreement between it and UK after 2019 because that would mean London got cake and ate it. Then whole EU falls apart.

            Not gonna happen

          2. Charger Salmons

            Then we get Hard Brexit under WTO rules.
            Suits me old cock as that’s what I wanted all along.
            Ireland will be left swimming in brown stuff though so you’d better hope you’re wrong.

          3. Happy Molloy

            That’s what ye wanted all along? I’m hearing this new narrative a lot. It certainly isn’t what Boris et all were promising.

          4. scottser

            a hard border will never happen mate. by the sounds of it, wales, scotland and even london want deals with the eu. UK? there won’t be even be a UK to negotiate with the EU at this rate.

          5. Charger Salmons

            @BB.
            I don’t.
            I want a good tariff-free trade deal between the UK and the EU but I’m aware that the EU will do its utmost to punish the UK for having the temerity to Leave and will be prepared to destroy the GFA if necessary.
            The EU played no part in the GFA and Ireland has allowed them to become involved in using it as a negotiating pawn.
            I’ve said from Day One that a Hard Brexit with WTO rules is the most likely outcome.
            Might as well crack on with it now.
            It’s still a very popular view in Blighty.

          6. Brother Barnabas

            A hard border would finish NI economically – it would become 10 times the basket case it already is.

            What does NI cost the UK every year? I recall hearing £11.5 billion for 2017… something like that.

            What would the annual cost be if the NI economy collapses? £20 billion? £30 billion? I don’t think that’s been factored into the Brexiteer’s calculations.

          7. Listrade

            Hang on charger you say above you wanted a hard exit and WTO rules all along and then when brother asks why you want that you say you don’t?

            You can’t even keep it consistent between posts.

            Do you fully realise what WTO rules mean for Britain? Like really know?

            No body, not even the brexiters wanted a hard border and no trade deal. They just wanted less forigeners, to be able to sack pregnant women and less of that human rights stuff that gets in the way of employing nannies.

          8. Listrade

            @charger re EU and GFA. Start doing some basic research before spouting opinion. Of course the EU played a role, it was two member states, they were there offering support amd advice. They’ve also contributed €650m to peace projects. It was also EU membership that formed the crux of the agreement. They may not have had diplomats at the photo ops, but EU delegates were heavily involved.

            Also DUP have no power here. Its a confidence and supply agreement. That means shut up and do as we say or lose that money we gave you. Their only hope is that May will allow parliament to vote on the final deal. Even then the most they would do is abstain.

            But she won’t do that, because that would mean giving parliament sovereignty over itself…Wait wasn’t that what this was all about???

          9. Charger Salmons

            North-South trade accounts for 10% of NI exports – the rest go East.
            I think it would survive.

          10. Brother Barnabas

            You just made that up, didn’t you!?!

            Around 60% of NI’s exports go to the EU, with more than half that going to Ireland.

            Add the number of NI residents who cross the border everyday to work – in 2014, that was 65,000. I’d say it’s higher now. Will that be permitted under a hard border?

            And add too the fact that NI has been fairly successful in attracting FDI (mainly US firms looking for EU foothold). That won’t continue. NI’s single biggest employer is Bombardier, which has already said it would have to reassess if there’s a hard border.

            The structure of the NI economy is also against it – food, beverages and agricultural products make up 35% of NIs exports to the EU (compared to only around 10% for the UK overall), so it’s in a far weaker position.

            There’s no doubt that a hard border would hammer NI.

            And the UK will have to pick up the annual bill for that… let’s say £20 billion a year.

            And it’s extraordinary that the DUP would put “constitutional integrity of the UK” ahead of NI’s economic welfare.

  6. Kolmo

    The DUP were bribed £425,000 sterlings to push for a brexit, they are fully intent on cutting off their noses to spite their faces, just like their less-than-reverend founder, their introduction to any given situation makes it infinitely worse (see Troubles 1968-1997). Increasingly irrelevant yesterday men and women.

  7. ReproBertie

    The Brexit omnishambles staggers again. Turns out no deal yet reached. “Common understanding on many issues” according to British Taoiseach, Theresa May, but “some differences remain on a number of areas”. No information on which side of the fence the EU/UK border issue sits. It is possible that all the information that came out today still stands and the issues are elsewhere but it’s equally possible that the information we received earlier about the UK putting the border in the Irish Sea is now irrelevant. Negotiations resume later in the week.

        1. Charger Salmons

          Not going to happen I’m afraid.
          The political reality is that the DUP hold all the aces and if the choice comes between a Hard Brexit and Corbyn the Tories will go for the former.
          Interestingly I think this could work in their favour as Merkel et al are full aware of this.

          1. Go A Way

            Yes I must admit it’s a 50:50 bet at present.

            However I think DUP concerns can be addressed with a fudge or bribe to them.

          2. ReproBertie

            The DUP will moan about it but in the end they will do what they are told unless they are willing to hand back the cash.

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