Tag Archives: Dublin

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Finance professor at Trinity College Dublin, Brian Lucey

Brian Lucey spoke to Gavin Jennings on Morning Ireland this morning following the release of figures yesterday from estate agents, Douglas Newman Goode (DNG), which claimed that Dublin house prices rose by €20,000 since end March (€220 per day or €6,600 a month).

In response to the figures, Taoiseach Enda Kenny denied the suggestions that there is a property bubble in Dublin and blamed the price rise on supply and demand.

Gavin Jennings: “Is the Taoiseach denying a reality?”

Brian Lucey: “Well, no, I think he’s more realistic now than other Government spokespeople have been over the last while. Technically, this might not be a bubble because there are huge supply issues as the Taoiseach has identified now. That is when you have very low supply and demand is rising you’d expect to see prices rising. The thing is though that when you see a 25% year-on-year rise in house prices that should absolutely terrify people. High house prices are not good for the economy. If we have learnt nothing, and, apparently we have learnt nothing…Then, you know, there’s really no hope.

Jennings: If you say a 25% year on year rise should terrify people, what should it do to an administration, to a government?

Lucey: Well I presume it should terrify them as well, it should spur them into immediate action to try an advance the things that can be advanced quickly. Look, we’ve known since 1970, 1970, 44 years, that there is problems with land-bank hoarding. We’ve done nothing about it, why would we expect that simply because we’re into another bubble would Government and administration would stir themselves. We’ve known that there are problems with SME’s [small and medium enterprises] getting finance for the past five or six years and most of the developers are not the big billion dollar people, they are people building 20/30/50 houses, SME’s by any definition. We’ve known that there are problems for 18 months with zoned land not being serviced because local authorities don’t have the money to engage in putting in sewerage lines, etc. Nothing has been done on that.

Jennings: Do you get the sense though, now that that could be changing?

Lucey: I think that this is beginning to change but these things take a very long time. You know there’s ideas of building five, 10, 15,000 houses, that’s great, that’s next year, that will help. We’ve a very thin market and the market could very easily collapse out under it as the cash buyers disappear which will result in a double dip. Let’s remember, if you go back to the pretty seminal work of Morgan Kelly, who is the man that we really ought to take very seriously, the man who took the scales from all of our eyes. His original 2007 ESRI data analysis, which nobody has been able to disclaim, suggested we should be looking at 65% fall in house prices. We’re recovering and we’re now at about a 40% fall. House prices are not affordable in Ireland. They might be affordable in the south west, they might be affordable in the upper Shannon basin. They are not affordable in Dublin. And there’s a big problem here.

Jennings: In a word Brian Lucey, for people who are looking at the property market and aren’t in it as yet, in a word, there is a headline on the front of the Daily Mail “House Prices Back To Boom Levels By 2019” Are we going there?

Lucey: [inaudible]…Ah jesus…I think we run a danger, you know, but that kind of, those kind of headlines, I don’t know if the Mail are being their usual pop self or not but we don’t want to go back there, we want to get house prices down to a sustainable level. At a €35,000 average income, which is what it is in the country, if you do the math’s of three times one salary and once the next salary, and at 80% or 85% loan-to-value ratio we should be looking at average house prices at around the €200,000 area. That would be up and down according to different regions. But, when you’ve got it well above that, which we have, when you have international property valuers saying we are overpriced, when you see vulture funds and value funds and bottom feeding funds, that we’ve seen come in and pick up the good stuff and are now leaving, they are saying the markets is not toppy, on the rise. This is about as big a flare-lit tip-off that we have a major problem as you could get. The danger is, in the middle of July, it will be October before anything gets done.

Jennings: Just very briefly Brian Lucey, speculation yesterday in commentary from a German MEP, a senior advisor to Angela Merkel, that there is no hope of a deal on the €64billion banking bailout, should we be surprised?

Lucey: No! I mean every single commentator has been saying that there was never a hope of this, the Government have been peddling the argument that this is a game changer, it was never going to work, you cannot on one hand say to people “we are doing great” and on the other hand say “give us a hand out” we were never going to get this money, and it was fallacious to believe so and disingenuous to claim so.”

Listen back in full here

Kenny denies there is a property bubble in Dublin (Irish Times)

Previously: €220 A Day

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Nama chairman Frank Daly and Minister for Finance Michael Noonan at a formal review of the Nama’s operations this morning

RTÉ reports:

The report finds NAMA is ahead of schedule and anticipates being in a position to dispose of its assets more quickly than originally envisaged.

The agency is expected to have paid back more than 80% of its senior debt of €30.2bn by 2016, two years ahead of target.

NAMA should be able to repay its debt – Department of Finance (RTÉ)

Read the full 52-page review here

Via Merrion Street

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350 players. 12 countries. Four continents. 20 mixed gender teams. All playing frisbee in Cabra. The Bogies [Pope John Paul Park, Cabra, Dublin 7] will host the inaugural Golden Keg Ultimate Frisbee tournament this weekend.
 

Mark Earley writes:

“This sport is non-cantact, 7-a-side and is played on pitches roughly the same size as a rugby pitch. It’s very spectator friendly due to the fast-moving nature of the sport and the athleticism on display…”

Karl was wondering was the frisbee getting bigger, then it hit him. Suit yourselves.

Golden Keg Dublin Video: Conor Hogan

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160,000 ticket holders.

*folds boot-cut Wrangler’s away*

Update:

From Dublin City Council:

Reasons:

1. The scale, magnitude and number of the concerts with an expected attendance of in excess of 80,000 people per night over five consecutive nights, three of them being week nights is unprecedented for Croke Park Stadium.

2. Three consecutive concerts have already taken place in Croke Park from the 23rd to 25th of May 2014. Given that Croke Park is situated in a heavily populated residential area, five shows in a row following on from the three concerts already held there this year is considered an over intensification of use of the stadium for the holding of special events/concerts. It would be in effect permitting an increase of 100% in terms of the maximum number of concerts that had previously been held in Croke Park in any given year since the redevelopment of the stadium.

3. The cumulative effect on residents and on some businesses in the Croke Park and surrounding neighbourhoods, of licencing five shows in a row, three of them on weekdays, would lead to an unacceptable level of disruption to their lives/livelihoods over an unprecedented and prolonged period caused by, concert related noise, access restrictions, traffic disruption, illegal parking and potential antisocial behaviour. The City Council would also be concerned with the precedent that would be created if five consecutive concerts in a row of this scale were licenced.

Garth Brooks Events (DCC)

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The ambitious Northside Southside cycle link-up.

Bridging Sutton to Sandycove at last.

It could Change EVERYTHING.

Clara Clarke, a member of the campaign team said: “The S2S would be the longest continuous cycle route in Europe, at 22km. The plan is for the whole 22km of it to be off-road – that’s critical, otherwise parents won’t let their kids use it as the Merrion Road is too dangerous.
“The next step is that we need Dublin City Council, Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown County Council and Fingal County Council to … link up all the routes. The most contentious part of the route is from Merrion Gates to Sandycove, and even [to] Seapoint, as that is the least developed area at the moment.”

FIGHT!

Dublin Gazzette: Supporters Ride In Behind 22km Cycleway (Bairbre Ni Bhraonain, Dublin Gazette Newspapers)

S2S (Facebook)

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The Irish Times reports that Development Securities plc, the British listed fund backing Johnny Ronan, plans to invest up £20 million (about €25 million) in equity into Irish property deals, according to an investor presentation.

Dev Sec confirmed it was part of a consortium – including developers Paddy McKillen and Johnny Ronan, as well as Colony Capital, a €20 billion American investment fund – that has bought a development site on Burlington Road, in Dublin 4, for €40.5 million.

Dev Sec added:

“Ireland presents considerable investment and development opportunities for us – a market in which we see strengthening demand and opportunities to apply our strategy of creating value through regeneration…”

Shovel, ready!

Previously: The Woodwork

Irish Times: Fund backing McKillen and Ronan plans to invest €25m