PhD candidate in economics at University of Michigan Enda Hargaden
Further to David Higgins’ number crunching…
John McManus, in today’s Irish Times, writes:
“Rural crime has got more to do with unemployment in rural areas and the economy as whole than it does with the number of Garda stations or repeat offenders out on bail. Economic theory holds that crime is a rational alternative to traditional employment when it it is not available and nowhere has it been more eloquently proven than in pre- and post-crash Ireland.”
“A candidate for a PhD in economics at the University of Michigan, Enda Hargaden, has looked at the relationship between employment levels and crime in the Republic over the 11 years between 2003 and 2014… He found crime levels rose and fell in tandem with employment in any given area. The relationship was particularly strong for theft and burglary…”
“Hargaden was even able to quantify the relationship and found that an increase of 1,000 in the numbers on the dole in a particular county or Garda district led to an extra 50 break-ins and thefts.”
John McManus: Rural crime is about jobs not Garda stations or the bail laws (Irish Times)
Read Enda Hargaden’s study here
Previously: Living In Fear
…bleedin’ North Americans…coming over here with their PhDs and facial hair…crunching ours numbers…
And getting it completely wrong.
Oh? What conclusions did you draw during your PHD research?
No need for PhD research when you’ve got reams of right-wing propaganda to draw on.
Hell, I’d settle for a link to a blogspot site. It’d be practically authoritative in comparison.
He’s from Leixlip
But it’s not rural unemployment. Radio reports usually say it’s gangs from Dublin and fasht cars on easily accessible motorways?
+1, I wonder is he differentiating theft and burglary from crime, doesn’t say so
Yes, he is. Maybe take the time to follow the link?
That’s just it, I didn’t have the time which is why I said ” I wonder”, sincere apologies, I’ll try not to wonder without informing myself as far as is practicable in future. Bloody work getting in the way as usual…
:)
No need. Is in the act post.
That’s what I thought, but that’s only based on anecdotal evidence. Assumed that urban burglary was getting a bit tricky for the gurriers with all this phone watch and lit-up neighbourhoods and they’ve diversified their activities to rural houses.
He is wasting his time as be does not have access to the pertinent data. Can he differentiate between rural and urban burglaries? No, because he doesn’t have adresss data. Can he tell if offenders are rural or urban based? No, because he doesn’t have access to offender data.
Ok, buddy. Which part of the report offended you because clearly that’s what’s after happening?
I don’t like pretend academics having their dodgy research published as fact in broadsheet papers.
Pretend academics? What is he pretending exactly? And which part of his study is “dodgy”? Let’s see your research.
He’s a PhD student so he should stay away from the papers till he learns his trade. I’ve already dissected his approach here. What are you going to do I send links to machine leaning papers?
I’m afraid you’ve just revealed you don’t know what you’re talking about.
I hear there’s an opening in Galt’s Gulch. They’ll love you there.
And PHD students are pretending to be PHD students? Did you really think that through? And you thinking ‘he couldn’t have access to address data’ is “dissecting” his study is absolutely hilarious.
PhD students are by definition pretend academics. Some gifted sorts rise above this but most don’t. His research should be given no more weight than somebody presenting a rough analysis in a forum post.
Please tell me how his hypotheses stand without access to offender and crime addresses?
“PhD students are by definition pretend academics.”
By definition, yeah? Brilliant.
“Please tell me how his hypotheses stand without access to offender and crime addresses?”
Sure. Crime went up when the economy was bad and went down when it improved. Any other mind numbingly inane questions?
Crime is not linked to the economy.
Because its an ecological study, which is perfectly valid to do, albeit with limitations as with every study.
So let’s see your research. Show me how you’ve reached the conclusion that crime isn’t linked to the economy.
You, as usual, have no clue what you are talking about.
PhDs are supposed to be original research. The link between unemployment and crime levels has been done to death.
How’s mum?
I love how mad this is making you. What was your PhD in again?
It doesn’t make me mad at all. I have a PhD in machine learning.
You seem pretty mad. And your PhD isn’t in an area even remotely associated but you feel you can pull his apart? Jog on mate.
Look at his sources. Any clown can take CSO datasets and play with them. I’ve done it here many times before.
CSO datasets are a valid data source. Can any clown use a Bartik-style instrumental variable?
He needs access to the real data. If he had this then he would see his hypothesis fail.
Somebody mentioned a different hypothesis that was presented to the press by the gardai. This was the result of professional statisticians and researchers working within the gardai having full access to the data.
You really are an idiot
Another personal attack because you have lost the argument.
I would genuinely love to spend a day with some of you and show you my life. You would not believe the level I operate at.
…said the midget cosmetic surgeon.
And *you* lose the “argument” (there was no argument, you’re just wrong) when you try and impress faceless avatars on the internet.
“You would not believe the level I operate at.”
Someone read a Donald Trump book recently. No, doesn’t sound psychotic at all…
You operate on ‘levels’… please explain me, thanks.
“You would not believe the level I operate at.”
Well, nobody here believes a word you say, so you’re halfway there. Keep reaching, buddy.
Mr Hargaden should examine the link between the traveller population and crime. Does an increase in the first lead to an increase in the second?
The only constant is the number of travellers, which is paradoxically increasing logarithmically.
I’m sure that there are also regular scummers who burglarise houses in rural areas, but whenever you hear about gangs who ‘terrorise rural communities’ being arrested, they tend to come from Ireland’s favourite ethnicity – you know, the one that begins with a ‘T’.
Tossers?
Townies – from up in dat der Dublin
Toad-catchers?
Tipperarymen?
If the sag of the bag is equal to the angle of the dangle then the throb of the knob is constant.
so unemployment is like a gateway drug to crime. wow, deep man, odd I never started a life of crime while on the scratcher, oh wait, I know why, it’s because the social welfare is there to make sure I don’t need to. Can I have my phd now?
Yeah, cause his study was all about you, buddy. Everything is about you.
Hope he didnt use Garda numbers submitted to the CSO
America in particular has a problem with social inequality. This all ties in with the self esteem and lack of opportunity coupled with racism that pushes certain groups towards crime.http://asr.sagepub.com/content/69/2/151.short
In short societal racism is to blame
Somebody posted this here last week, I followed the link and watched the movie/doc. last weekend.
Thanks whoever it was, great doc. http://inequalityforall.com/
If you watched it you’ll know why I posted it here. If you haven’t seen it, I highly recommend it.
Cheers babez x0x0x0x
Can we have a study on white-collar crime?
Apparently we don’t keep statistics.
This confirms the income inequality argument, but on a smaller scale.
PhD for this …really, the reality is that most of the crime prepareted in rural
areas comes from urban gangs roaming at will in rural Ireland that have little or
no police patrols, to postulate that un-employment figures in rural Ireland can be
corelated to the rise in rural crime is nothing short as daft, indeed most of the
thefts and breakins are never solved and sometimes not reported as most of
those who are burgled realise that nobody will be caught, charged or even
jailed, if you were Joan Burton and were discomoded then you’d stand a chance.