Parsing The Red C

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11/02/2016. TV3 LEADERS ELECTION DEBATE. Pictured  Leader Of Sinn Fein President Gerry Adams TD at the first General Election 2016 TV and radio debate on TV3 this evening in association with News talk 106fm. The debate is moderated by Newstalks Pat Kenny and TV3s Colette Fitzpatrick. Photo: Sam Boal/Rollingnews.ie 

Today’s  Sunday Business Post/Red C Poll

A new poll.

Taken before the TV3 leaders’ debate on Thursday.

What does it all mean?

Shane Heneghan writes:

Another poll that would lead to an extremely divided Dáil. It also looks like things are starting to move. Fine Gael are beginning to dive under the 30% mark. Fianna Fail are rising slowly and Sinn Fein are up three percent.

In short, this is another poll that points to protracted post election negotiations and possibly even a second election this year.

We can probably see the theme of another election enter the campaign. Leaders will and should be asked under what circumstances would they force a second general election rather than form a government and why.

One of the more interesting points here is that Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil are very close. [NUI Maynooth lecturer and election analyst] Adrian Kavanagh‘s sterile scientific means of predicting the make up of the Dail based on polls has FF getting more seats than SF despite getting less 1st preferences than them.

Would this be seen as fair? Would this affect coalition negotiations? Yes this is well well down the list of stumbling blocks to the formation of such a government, but if Gerry Adams’ party has more 1st preferences than Michael Martin’s then you can expect the phrase “rotating Taoiseach” to raise it’s head again.

Similarly, we see smaller parties continue to perform well here. Despite this, it’s still hard to see where they might gain on a constituency level. It is possible, for example, that the Social Democrats may get a mere 1.8% (3) of the seats on 4% of the vote.

Shane Heneghan is a Galway-based election expert/Irish political anorak/poll number-cruncher and part of Broadsheet’s ‘crack’ General Election 2016 team.

Fine Gael and Labour slump by five points as Sinn Fein rise (Sunday Business Post)

Pic: Sunday Business Post

9 thoughts on “Parsing The Red C

    1. Jimmy 2 tones

      Hopefully he might help put an end to the 100’s of yearly suicides happening because of FF & FG gambling & corruption & austerity in this country.

      1. Neilo

        If you want to curb unplanned deaths, you may need to look elsewhere in the political system for succour.

    2. eoin hurley

      speaking about redundancies in Irish Water today. he’s not even in government yet and he’s letting people go. once Irish Water is shut there will be no one with experience left who knows about water to run any new organisation. I wonder how much the redundancies will cost?

      1. Truth in the News

        Irish Water is a subsidary of Bord Gais Eireann, it was set up in order
        to fund it off the Books and had to be subsidised by the tranfer of road
        fund tax to the the tune of 600 Million to put in water meters, its has a
        legacy issue of 4000 needless staff kept on, to keeps certain union chiefs
        happy…..the end game was to privatise Irish Water….in other words, the
        Water of the Nation was to be sold off…..the game is up, and come the
        26th of February, its the end of the Junta that cooked it up and endorsed
        the shambles…..the Red C poll is only the tip of the iceberg
        In the next 6 months how many bondholders will be shafted by European Banks as the market slides…..Kenny and Martin before him
        look pathtetic….is it any wonder Sinn Fein are rising, and the idea that
        the Special Criminal Court should be retained would need to be examined, what about the Nicky Kelly case, and the Judge of SCC
        falling a sleep on the bench, do they think the electorate are asleep.

    3. eoin hurley

      my comment was taken down – no innuendo, no bad language, no anything just a valid political point. time to delete broadsheet I think. appaling

      1. nellyb

        May be it self-terminated in embarrassment. Was it even more sci-fi than mystical experience of Irish Water? IW are inept operationally. If that’s your benchmark for quality, you should keep this to yourself.

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