“Making predictions in the punditry game can be risky. But predicting that Trump will not become president is as safe a prediction as one could ever make.

Dan O’Brien, Irish Independent.

Relax: Donald Trump can’t win *Dan O’Brien, Irish Independent,August 14, 2016)



Ah Paddy.

A woman’s place is in the house – The White House! Paddy Power pays out over $1m on Hillary Clinton victory (Paddy Power blog, October 18, 2016)


Regardless of the outcome, it was clear that the polls, and the projections, had underestimated the strength of Mr. Trump’s vote, and the movement he built, which has defied all predictions and expectations since he announced his candidacy last year.

And that’s why the problem that surfaced on Tuesday night was much bigger than polling. It was clear that something was fundamentally broken in journalism, which has been unable to keep up with the anti-establishment mood that is turning the world upside down.

Politics is not just about numbers; data can’t always capture the human condition that is the blood of American politics. And it is not the sole function of political reporting to tell you who will win or who will lose. But that question — the horse race — has too often shadowed everything else, and inevitably colors other reporting, too.

News Media Yet Again Misreads America’s Complex Pulse (New York Times)

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91 thoughts on “Calling It

  1. human

    These guys don’t have a clue what’s going on out in the real world, the media’s spell has been broken at last.

    1. Paddy

      Poor old Dan has aspirations to be a commentator. The quality of de Dublin media is shown up big time. Maybe he thought his musings would in some way have an effect on the outcome.

  2. Paul Davis

    What a result, called it yesterday on this site, read the online rhetoric, it was plain to see.

    Caused by all the bleeding hearts that you find on site like this.

    Going to be an interesting eight years…

  3. edalicious

    You’re all very smug about something which is likely to have a profound negative effect on the Irish economy. For one thing, Trumps promise to slash US corporation taxes could seriously screw our economy.

    1. scottser

      trump will look after trump, which means pretty much everyone is in for a length of trump-steak at some stage.

        1. :-Joe

          Just when you think you’ve had a fill the Gurd of economic realism pops out another gem like the majical russian doll that he is.

          Give that man one of those awards that used to mean something… idk.. the pulitzer peace prize.. the woman of the year… something?.. Anything!…

          I personally can’t wait for sadly the two biggest deluded US liberals on TV/Film (who betrayed (one of the greatest US politicians in history) Ralph Nader as well btw.) to start blabbing with the blame game… Bill Maher on Real Time for over a year and Michael Moore in his frankly moronic love letter appeal stage show….

          As a fan of both in many ways it was un-fupping-belieberville to watch….


          1. Clampers Outside

            I hear ya… shame ’bout Bill Maher…. still, I do like him.

            Moore’s become a fool who lost his way once he’d made a few bob…. couldn’t bring myself to watch more than a minute of that stage show nonsense.

  4. Vote Rep #1

    Yeah, a victory for a racist, sexual assaulting isolationist who wants to build a wall with mexico, throw out all the muslims and to take all the multi-nationals out of Ireland back to the US. I am pleased your man won Bodger. You must be delighted.

    1. Tony

      In fairness, Trump was never ‘Bodger’s man’. Bodger just had a bonkers bee in his bonnet about Hillary. Not the same thing. In fairness

      1. Vote Rep #1

        Well, if its a 2 man race and you only ever say bad things about one while completely ignoring any negative thing about the other, then he became Bodgers man. He considers it bad when INM do the same with regards DOB yet sees no problem in doing it himself.

        I am sure sexual assault and/or racism will now become a negative thing that needs to be talked about since the election is over. They were just to be ignored during the election.

        1. Mr Reality

          Empathy extortion from vote rep, quit it the campaign is over, looking for a safe space, I hear Joe.ie is looking for snowflake millennials

          1. The Lady Vanishes

            Vote Rep, you are twisting things tortuously… don’t you realise the era of spin is now over and it only has a negative value.

            There is a total difference between Broadsheet criticising Hillary rather than Trump (in circumstances where there was huge criticism of Trump in the mainstream media and no criticism of Hillary, and Broadsheet was merely redressing the balance in circumstances where it had no vested interest) and INM refusing to deal with any criticism of Denis O’Brien the owner of the mediaa group.

            Get over yourself. This is the kind of shoddy obfuscation which LOST your candidate the election. You guys were one of her liabilities.

          2. Vote Rep #1

            “in circumstances where there was huge criticism of Trump in the mainstream media and no criticism of Hillary, and Broadsheet was merely redressing the balance in circumstances where it had no vested interest”

            So basically BS only posting ignoring any negative things about Trump is totally different from IMN doing the same about DOB while all the other media reported on it because Trump does own BS? Its fine because its an editorial decision as opposed to a different type of editorial decision?

            Makes sense.

            Btw, I had no candidate. I am not American. I found BS position on ignoring all the negative things about the one candidate which it would normally rail against. Bodger has has a post about someone being told to go back to their own country today. The hypocrisy is astonishing.

          3. Vote Rep #1

            They rolled chompsky out of retirement to post the odd negative one about trump after the hypocrisy of their position was pointed out to them. Pretty much no different to IMN have Gene Kerrigan write his weekly article and then say they are totally not biased. See, Gene says stuff.

          4. Bodger

            Vote Rep 1, All the ‘sheet columnists were pro-Hillary and John Moynes has penned about a dozen anti-Trump limericks.

    2. Mr Reality

      First order of the day ; lock up criminal Hillary the failed illegal candidate, poetic justice now she’s going to jail

  5. :-Joe

    Bookmakers rarely lose money because when they do they collapse and are gobbled up or just go out of business.

    Dan O’Brien is still a clown, so nothing new there..

    I heard him on the radio explaining something economics related the other day and it was mind bogglingly stupid what comes out of his mouth quite often.

    I literally said “what a fupping gobsh1te” out load in a crowded public place.. & not for the first time…. it would be funny if it wasn’t so sad that so many people actually rely on him for credible analysis.


  6. On The Buses

    The thin veneer of respectability maitained by the United States for decades has possibly finally been removed. The United States of America is a Segregationist State founded on Genocide and maintained with Slavery. Barack Obama may have been a charismatic nice guy, but he presided over assassinations and war crimes and the opening of possibly the biggest social rift in recent American history. Decades of stupifying a war nation has come home to roost. They have entertained themselves to death.

  7. :-Joe

    We’ve been living in a post journalism world since the internet kicked off and now a post political world for at least a decade and a in many ways a whole lot longer….

    The NYTimes is a small part of the huge problem and it still hasn’t got the intellegence and self awerness needed to have noticed it yet.

    Fupping hilarious….


  8. Ron

    Its ok.. the army of supposedly ‘well educated’ elite are on their way to tell the American people just how stupid they are for electing Trump as President. These are the same people who were appalled at the fact that the ‘peasants’ (That’s really what they think of them) voted in favour of Brexit and all of the verbal diarrhoea that followed after that most democratic decision. The normally subtle media couldn’t even contain themselves this election with their blatant bias in favour of Clinton and it just goes to show how much they are not in control anymore. This is what’s terrifying the political establishment all over the world. The system has been broken for a long time now and Brexit, the US election etc. are all just symptoms of how betrayed and let down ordinary people feel by the very people they elected to protect and stand up for them. Expect to see more anti establishment candidates and parties increasing their vote over coming elections all around Europe. I’m no supporter of Trump or Clinton, but I genuinely believed he would do better than the polls were suggesting he would do. Its a repeat of the ‘Bradley Effect’. This isn’t a vote in favour of Trump policies. This is a vote against the political establishment. The ‘peasants’ as the establishment like to think of them as, have finally revolted and in a way its almost refreshing to see that there are consequences for when they do that. I don’t know what type of a President Mr Trump will be, but I have a feeling the first time he enters the ‘Situation Room’ he will probably crap his pants with fear, as opposed to Clinton, who I imagine would slam her cahoneys on the table harder than any 5 star army General would, because you know, there are more innocent children to be butchered in Syria and all that. Let it be a warning to politicians all over, Ireland included. Try to maintain the status quo and face eventual annihilation at the ballot box or finally get a grip on the real world problems facing people and change. It isn’t difficult.

    1. :-Joe

      Bang on, 100%..

      I thought it was so strange having been convinced he would win over three months ago that all the relentless worlwide media propaganda had 99% convinced me it would most likely be Clinton.

      In the end I was so surprised and yet not surprised at the same time.. The propaganda is so strong and so pervasive it almost gets me to believe every time…

      I hope people in the media everywhere wake up to reality and resurrect journalism for truth, for people and not just profit.

      Not that I’ve suffered much since having Broadsheet to rely on for reliable information…


        1. The Lady Vanishes

          As far as I’m concerned Hillary’s religious preferences are her own business, it’s her cronyism and disdain for the voting population I have a problem with. Suspect most other Trump voters were similar.

          1. Nigel

            That’s the sort of perfect fair and balanced response to accusations of Satanism that make people who were supposedly anti-Clinton but not pro-Trump such a joke.

          2. Alexis

            Just as well the Satanist movement is generational at its core, if it relied on publicity to maintain its membership the association with Hillary would be seriously detrimental. Her election performance is hardly an advertisement for the material benefits of the Dark Path.

        2. :-Joe

          If I did half the deplorable things Clinton has done while having that much power and influence for so long I would be doing a lot more strangeness thanSatanism.

          The link to possible paedophile activity was not that far fetched considering bill’s many trips on the lolita express and very wealthy people can easily afford to delve into sex trafficking, rape and murder.


  9. Junkface

    This was a win for misinformation and Conspiracy theories, spread by the modern AIDS which is Facebook, and Twitter. The reality is that most of the people in any country in the world are easily tricked idiots. America has just owned it first. The working/middle class white America are in for a shock when they see how little Trump cares for them at all. Americas deficit will be HUGE in 4 years.

    1. Mr Reality

      The Armageddon you speak of is merely a large cloud of Kleenex tissues for you to wipe your eyes with there’s actually a bright rainbow on the horizon, Hillary is going to prison

  10. scottser

    you know the movie ‘trading places’, where the two oul lads concoct a bet that you could get a homeless guy and turn him into a stock-market whizz-kid? trump and one of his buddies have just done the same thing. ‘man, you could put a monkey in the white house and they’d do a better job. hell, I bet even I could become president, cos people are so stupid.’ ‘don, you’re hilarious – care for a bet at the usual stakes?’

  11. The Lady Vanishes

    rump’s victory represents a desire on the part of people for change in a system where they (we) are all essentially drones, working long hours, paying large taxes, saving little and with an extremely poor quality of life. Only the top .5 make money (many dishonestly or in in dubious circumstances) and they make obscene amounts in deals based on connections rather than merit. Hillary Clinton’s daughter married into the Soros family; this is typical of the career politician elite. Blair in the UK is a similar ‘career politician’. The public is fed up of this and rightly so. Trump represents change. He also represents someone who has made his money other than through the political system. He represents aspiration and hope and also represents an assertion by the public that things are not right. He may not have been the ideal people would aspire to for President, but he was the ideal candidate for change because he was the only candidate with the brass neck to stand up against the established system. Hopefully he will have the sense to realise the responsibility of representing the people who voted for him and change the system for the better.

    PS Kudos for Bodger for calling it. Excellent predictive ability from the Sheet. As always. Best media outlet out there. For those who say Bodger was anti-Hillary but not pro-Trump, you are missing the point. This was an anti-Hillary and anti-establishment vote. Bodger called it exactly. Full credit and well done. Don’t be like Hillary and her missed concession speech.

    1. :-Joe

      Well said… but did Bodger actually call it and what was the missed concession speech?

      So many questions, so little time….


          1. Captain freegear

            You crawled back in through the cat flap Moyest you angry loser, cheer up pettle; the 20 year old scamp is still here haha

        1. The Lady Vanishes

          Starina, of course he is or he wouldn’t have had the funds to run as a candidate against Hillary.

          The point is that he’s further removed from the core of that .5 % than Hillary is in terms of connections and how he’s made his money.

          No one’s saying Trump was the best candidate that could have stood for President. My point is that he is the best candidate who could have stood for President and won against Hillary, the darling of the .5% (whereas Trump is as close to an outsider as you can get within it).

    2. Dόn Pídgéόní

      “Only the top .5 make money (many dishonestly or in in dubious circumstances) and they make obscene amounts in deals based on connections rather than merit. Hillary Clinton’s daughter married into the Soros family; this is typical of the career politician elite. Blair in the UK is a similar ‘career politician’. The public is fed up of this and rightly so. Trump represents change. He also represents someone who has made his money other than through the political system.”
      Change my hole – all of those things are Trump as well. You have little understanding of how he made his money. Soros bailed him out as well, same crowd. And people were dumb enough to fall for it.

      “Hopefully he will have the sense to realise the responsibility of representing the people who voted for him and change the system for the better.”
      He isn’t even allowed to use his own Twitter account so no, he won’t do that.

    3. :-Joe

      Clinton tentacles everywhere…. did you know Soros is behind funding multiple NGO’s illegaly smuggling refugees into Europe to encourage coerced migration and the the destabilisation of europe and the EU economy.

      I realise that makes me sound like a nut job but I can live with it…


      1. Clampers Outside

        I’ve heard this a few times, but never found anything concrete when I checked online… admittedly fleetingly.

        Any source recommendations for this whole Soros thing, thanks? :)

        1. Mr Reality

          Look up news bud or boilingfrogs.com they have just done a lot of work on the contrived migrant crisis and whose feeding it cash (Soros)

        2. :-Joe

          Sure… but I’ll have to dig into my browser history… It’ll take a while… Lot of ahem.. stuff to wade through… all clean good fun I swear.

          Go to Gearoid O’Colmain . Com, he’s a reliable analyst from Ireland on geo politics and there are many links from there to other such mostly unknown to the mainstream, sources of important information.

          Y’know Clampers, like the actual FACTS and stuff.. lol..


        3. :-Joe

          I was trying to find a really good link to an article by another jounalist from his website but it just just crashed…. prob the illuminati finally found him… haha..

          …Anyway when Eddy the snowman and Julian Strange get it back up and running there’s a few videos he has done talking for press TV and RT talking about everything going on since the Paris attacks and the various forces at play in the middle east etc. and also links to other journalists who have been investigating the whole picture from different countries… Well worth a couple of hours attention to clear some of the gunk from your mind…

          Look up the RT video where he gives a bunch of establishment apologists an earful… about the known truths of recent geo politics… it’s fuppin hilarious.


  12. Medium Sized C

    “Don’t be like Hillary and her missed concession speech.”

    He was pretty vitriolic about her. It was kind of an unprecedented campaign of abuse.
    You expect her to be gracious in defeat?
    He consistently threatened to put her in jail.

    You typed all those words, but you seem to have no idea that words affect people.

    1. The Lady Vanishes

      She made all sorts of assertions against him too. It’s part of freedom of speech in the election context. No one can say she didn’t give as good as she got or that she didn’t get support from the media in this.

      She is a career politician and should respect the democratic process. Petulant behaviour shows what she really thinks of the process that made her name and that she claimed to be fighting for.

      Of course words affect people, that is self-evident, what are you trying to say by this (apart from being passive-aggressive in exactly the way Hilary’s failure to publicly concede was)?

      1. :-Joe

        I think she may have had a stroke from the embarrassment of being beaten by an ourangitan playing Biff Tannen from Back to the future 3..

        or was it 2?


    1. The Lady Vanishes

      No gloating here, but very clear confirmation from their ungracious acceptance of the will of the democratic system how right Bodger was to put his neck on the line and stand up to you and other Hillary spinners (reasonable Hillary supporters like Nigel not included).

      1. :-Joe

        Clinton only does speeches for a minimum of one banker and $250,000.

        All the power play money is gone… and she’s keeping the change.


        1. Starina

          no, i take that back…not school bullies – more like the kind of people who wouldn’t stand up to help anyone else

          1. The Lady Vanishes

            Anything in ANY of my comments on this which you regard as bullying, please do state.

            In contrast, the behaviour towards Bodger, in particular, by Hillary supporters can only be described as serious trolling and bullying.

          2. Starina

            the right have gone mad today. i suppose we shoukd just let you run amok until you get tired, then the rest of us will carry on actually trying to make the world a better place. go on, go gloat and run, little clampers

          3. Clampers Outside

            “actually trying to make the world a better place” …with bombs is it? Hillary’s loves an aul bombing and her desire for a confrontation with Russia over a Syrian no-fly zone… well done pet.

            Some world that.

          4. Nigel

            Is there anyone who seriously thinks that the situation in Syria could only be improved let alone peacefully resolved by putting Trump in charge of it? The only comment to that effect I’ve seen anywhere was a hawk who was looking forward to Putin getting a free hand and curbing Islamic extremism by turning the Middle east to glass.

  13. :-Joe


    First the simpsons and now it’s Back to the Future… and it also predicted the Cubs finally winning the world series tooo……. creepy!?$

    Sh1t, quick, Where’s my VHS player…….. must be loads of other gems in there?


  14. scottser

    spare a thought everyone for our poor jimmy russell, who at this very moment is ugh-ing his way to the mother and father of all conniptions.

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