31 thoughts on “De Thursday Papers

  1. Eoin

    Front page of the Express, 75% of Brits have lost faith in parliament.

    Just wait another 71 days. One side or the other is going to see their expectations crushed.

    I wonder what % of the English had lost faith in the monarchy in 1642 when the English Civil War broke out?

    (1) Adopt current draft withdrawal agreement (2) attempt renegotiation with EU of current draft withdrawal agreement (3) Cancel Article 50 notice to leave (4) Seek agreement to extend Article 50 notice to leave (5) Hold a second Brexit referendum (6) Call general election (7) No-deal Brexit crash-out

    1. SOQ

      Philip Hammond told business leaders that a no deal would be blocked by MPs. He also referred to a cross-party Bill, from Tory MP Nick Boles, which aims to force the government to extend Article 50 if a Brexit deal cannot be reached. If (when?) this bill comes before the house it will pass, but I suppose they can’t move on it until after May comes up with her plan B.

      That will strike out your no 7 there Eoin.

        1. ReproBertie

          The Sasamachs know exactly what they want. They want the free trade without the freedom of movement and without the EU having any say.

          They won’t be getting that and an extension won’t change that.

          1. Spaghetti Hoop

            Yep. A cherry-picked membership plan of the EU. I hope the EU stand firm against the Brits. Other business such as the May elections should mean no more extensions.

          2. bisted

            …sending that clown David Davis and his contemptuous smirk to wait for Europe to capitulate to UK demands shows the hubris that the leave campaign was built on…I do agree with Boris that no deal is closest to what the brits voted for…

        2. SOQ

          That’s true but a hard Brexit will cause huge problems for other EU member states that trade with Britian. And, no one really knows what the economic ripple effect will be. The only thing for certain is that it won’t be good.

          A hard Brexit could potentially cause a deep recession if not depression right across the EU, so out of self interests it will be avoided at all costs

      1. Cian

        The current issue is that if nothing else happens, the UK will leave the EU on March 29 at 11pm.
        The UK would need to actively request an extension and it needs to be accepted by the EU. “The request would then be considered by the European Council, and an extension would only be granted with the unanimous agreement of the remaining 27 member states, the EU-27. ”
        1. Will the UK be in a position to request an extension?
        2. Would all EU counties accept an extension? There are a number of countries that don’t have much trade with the UK and they might prefer a hard Brexit over a lingering will they/won’t they.

        1. Spaghetti Hoop

          If it were up to Guy Verhofstadt, they can FRO with their extension request! I’m enjoying his tweeted frustration – it’s real and we’re all feeling it with him.

        2. Eoin

          (4) seeking an extension is not a cost-free or 100% certain option for the UK

          From the EU’s standpoint, it wants to see UK red lines abandoned and also wants EU red lines accepted as preconditions, eg Irish backstop. It’s also messy, what about the European Parliament elections in May? What about the extra 2 MEP seats in Ireland (going from 11 to 13?). And would 18 months of an extension reverse the farce at Westminster which has lost trust in the UK and Europe?

          From the UK’s standpoint, Leavers will be hopping mad. They’ll ask why the govt didn’t put the deal to parliament before Christmas. They’ll accuse the govt of running down the clock. They’ll say parliament doesn’t really want to give effect to the 17m who voted in favour of Brexit 31 months ago. Will those Leaver people confine their response to donning zany outfits wrapped in flags and noisily protesting outside Westminster? Maybe, but I don’t think so, they have too much backing.

          Also, the 27 members of the EU must unanimously accept the request for an extension, as I understand it neither Tusk nor Juncker can personally agree to the extension without agreement from all member states. Ireland should agree despite Coveney being lukewarm. It’s not 100% with Germany “better a horrible ending than a horror without end”, I can see Spain pulling the rug as payback for Gibraltar.

      2. Eoin

        In the House of Commons today

        The Cabinet minister [Andrea Ledsom] told MPs that removing no deal as an option would be “an incompetent thing to do”. In the wake of the defeat, opposition parties called on the Government to take a no-deal Brexit off the table in a bid to work cross-party on a way forward but Mrs Leadsom said that was “not possible”.

        (7) remains a political option, and, it is the default option and it is probably for the UK, the most democratically sound option.

        1. SOQ

          The most democratically sound option is to put the options to the people and let them decide.

          Anything else is a subversion of democracy.

          1. SOQ

            Round and round in circles eh? A bit like Brexit itself I suppose.

            2 and a half years is a long time. They vote a government in or out every 4 or would you prefer they didn’t do that either?

          2. Spaghetti Hoop

            The Brits can elect a government whenever they wish as far as I care, I don’t live there.
            On the democracy of Brexit, the people voted in the majority to leave.There was a simple YES/NO option: https://goo.gl/images/hJ4QEW
            with nothing mentioned about backstops, trade deals, tariffs, customs entry, freedom of movement or time limits. At no point did anyone consider adding a third option on that ballot paper which suggested an exit accompanied by some privelges or clauses. Hence the hard exit is completely democratic, despite what the Tories do to soften it.

          3. SOQ

            No you don’t live there but make no mistake, this will affect every man woman and child on this island.

            People are allowed to change their minds, especially when armed with the facts. THAT is democracy.

  2. Giggidygoo

    So Vacron is (supposedly) ‘telling’ the UK to sort Brexit. Varadkar is being shown up daily as the busted flush that he is. Patschal has, at this late stage, ordered an urgent review of the impact of a no deal Brexit. Really? An ‘urgent’ review? More than two and a half years since the Brexit decision, with 70 days left, Patschal hasn’t reviewed the impact.
    That, and Vacron http://www.rte.ie/amp/925856/ with his ‘cast iron’ and ‘politically bulletproof’ agreement. Weren’t the optics good on his hired and re-hired podium back in December 2017? Look at him now. No agreement. Watch the dilution of what was in the proposal of the pie-in-the-sky ‘backstop’ that May only put in, in order to move away from stage 1 of the discussions.
    Coveney is showing Vacron how to statesmanship works, and that’s saying something.

  3. Giggidygoo

    https://g.co/kgs/D6oeVG and the price increases.
    And the baby-powdered-dusted board of the new hospital, a real motley crew, would do the same again.
    Now who decided these should be board members?
    Why was a tender released that hadn’t the correct details in it?
    Big rush for glory for Varadkar – that’s why. And yet again shown up as the ‘boy’

    1. Otis Blue

      Anyone that thinks it can be business as usual in the event of a no-deal Brexit is deluded or lying.

      A no-deal Brexit makes a hard border inevitable.

  4. ReproBertie

    “The ‘backstop’ that May only put in in order to move away from stage 1 of the discussions.”
    Nice to see you admit it exists. You’re right. The Sasamachs thought they could sign up to it and then ignore it but they’ve since discovered that they are the smaller party in the negotiations and the EU27 are not for turning.

    1. GiggidyGoo

      No. There’s a mention of a backstop. It was heiled as some success. The mention of it was put there to allow leaving phase 1. If it exists then why the pantomime?
      We have seen that May wasn’t authorized to make an agreement. She obviously has been bluffing the EU.

      As it stands, and has stood – there is no backstop.

  5. Eoin

    Media presenting the Deripaska and Aughinish Alumina sanctions business as concluded as a move by Democrats (supported by some Republicans) in US to keep sanctions open on Rusal, failed. Deripaska is accused by the US of being a gangster*. Yet the US is accepting his word of honour that he’ll divest his interest in Rusal, the owner of the Limerick plant. And he’ll still own 45% (35% of voting rights). Sure, Denis O’Brien only owns 30% of INM.

    The FT says today.

    “In return for sanctions relief, Mr Deripaska has agreed to reduce his stake in EN+ — his main holding company — from about 70 per cent to 44.95 per cent. His holdings would go to VTB, a state-owned Russian bank; a charity founded by Mr Deripaska; and Glencore, the London-listed mining and metals group. 

    Mr Deripaska will hold no more than 35 per cent of EN+ group’s voting shares, under the proposal. Voting shares above that threshold would be handed to a trust that would vote along with independent shareholders.”

    *https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm0338

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