Yikes.

Constantin Gurdgiev

19 thoughts on “Aftershock

  1. observer

    What happened at the start of 2017 that results in 4% point shifts in Constantin’s graphs?

    Was there an economic crash? Or did the methodology of data collection change?

    Reply
    1. Owen C

      My understanding is it relates to the 2016 census (final results available to CSO Q217), which both significantly upgraded the total population estimate AND was also used as the basis for a new labour force survey which is used to calculate the various unemployment rates. So there was a one off shift up in some of the broader measures of unemployment as there was around 100k people added to the population, and the vast majority of these in 15-29 age group where a lot of them fell into the ‘potential’ labour force (students?), but not headline unemployment

      https://cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/in/lfs/informationnotice-labourforcesurveyquarter32017/

      Reply
  2. Rob_G

    Ireland has always had a higher-than-normal rate of households where no adult was working – now, while the economy is doing well, during the crisis, and even during the boom when any able-bodied person could find a job.

    Some folks just don’t feel like workin, God bless’em.

    Reply
        1. Owen C

          https://igees.gov.ie/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Household-joblessness-paper-final.pdf

          It doesn’t add much, but it does at least try to explain it a little.

          “When compared to the rest of the EU Ireland has higher proportions of people
          with disabilities, one parent families and children in jobless households”. It also suggests some of the usual controversial ideas such as welfare dependency creating a disincentive to work, need for job activation programs etc.

          Reply
          1. millie st murderlark

            Thanks Owen and Rob for the links. Very interesting numbers. I’ll be taking a proper look later.

          2. Lilly

            I know someone whose joblessness seems dictated by her fear of losing her medical card. It seems irrational and is definitely hindering her progress in life.

  3. johnny

    Given the gov ignores recommendations to fix this by the likes of the NESC…

    -A striking finding from this study of low work intensity households was the number of multi-family, intergenerational households interviewed. The lack of affordable or available accommodation for renting, along with family breakup, accounted for a substantial proportion of the households living with other family members, often parents or siblings. A key concern is the difficulty that low-income households face accessing accommodation in a very competitive environment. The availability of public and affordable private rented accommodation (the latter with HAP), is a key issue to be addressed, to assist people in taking up available jobs.-

    easy quick read-quite good on this with affordable housing again identified as one the biggest issues here.

    Moving from Welfare to Work:Low Work Intensity Households and the Quality of Supportive Services

    http://files.nesc.ie/nesc_reports/en/146_Low_Work_Intensity_Households.pdf

    Reply
    1. Rob_G

      I can see how this would negatively impact people from the country from getting a job (if they had to move to Dublin or Cork or something), but how would living with family members prevent someone from Dublin from finding a job?

      Reply
  4. johnny

    A holistic response is required Rob-silent of the costs of women’s sanitary products though:)

    For particular services it points to the need for:

    “ More affordable childcare, particularly after-school care;
     More public housing, and additional affordable private sector housing;
     Greater promotion of the fact that those leaving welfare to take up employment can keep their medical card for three years;
     Considering the possibility that those with an on-going illness could retain their medical card for the duration of their illness; and
     Greater support for those on low incomes to enable access to transport and IT that facilitates moves into training and employment.”

    Reply
  5. Junkface

    Too many zero hour contracts. These are not quality full time jobs as there used to be and Ireland is heading towards a pension and healthcare time bomb. The gig economy sucks, eventually everyone in it figures out that they need a real future and gets out of it.

    Reply
    1. Owen C

      Can you show some data indicating that these are zero hours contracts being created?
      Can you show how we are facing a healthcare time bomb and what this has to do with the unemployment data?

      Here’s my data:
      – the CSO LFS shows that the number of full time employed people increased by 48k between Q417 and Q418
      – the number of part time workers increased by 2k in this period, of which the number of people describing themselves as “underemployed” actually FELL by 7k
      – the number of people seeking a full time job FELL by 13k
      – the number of people described as “self employed” FELL by 12k
      – the number of people described as “employees” increased by 67k
      – the number of people working at least 30 hours a week increased by 59k
      – the number of people working less than 10 hours a week FELL by 13k (and is only 46k in total out of 2.3m people working!!). “Variable hours” accounts for an additional 115k people, but still suggests less than 7% (and that is the maximum number) could be defined as working less than 10 hours, and only 310k or 13% of the total employed are working less than 20 hours a week.

      There is ZERO evidence to suggest that zero hours contracts are a major part of the increase in people working or constitute a significant portion of total employment. It is a nonsense which continues to be repeated without any supporting evidence.

      Reply

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