Bubble At The Border

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From the Central Statistics Office’s Residential Property Price Index June 2019 report (click to enlarge)

The Central Statistics Office reports:

Residential property prices increased by 2.0% nationally in the year to June. This compares with an increase of 2.6% in the year to May and an increase of 11.9% in the twelve months to June 2018.

In Dublin, residential property prices rose by 0.1% in the year to June, with house prices unchanged and apartments rising by 0.1%. The highest house price growth in Dublin was in South Dublin at 3.6%, while Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown saw a decline of 4.0%.

Residential property prices in Ireland excluding Dublin were 3.9% higher in the year to June, with house prices up by 3.6% and apartments by 6.1%.

The region outside of Dublin that saw the largest rise in house prices was the Border at 14.7%, while the Mid-East recorded a decline of 0.1%.

Property prices nationally have increased by 83.0% from their trough in early 2013. Dublin residential property prices have risen 92.7% from their February 2012 low, whilst residential property prices in the Rest of Ireland are 81.1% higher than at the trough, which was in May 2013.

Residential property prices rise by 2.0% in the year to June (CSO)

Related: Property price growth cools to six-year low of 2% (The Irish Times)

Top pic: Rollingnews

11 thoughts on “Bubble At The Border

  1. eoin

    In fairness, the average (median) price of a property in the Border region is €133,000 today even after the 15% annual increase. You’d wonder though, are people buying in these areas and doing crazy commutes to Dublin?

    Also, there are so few transactions these days, it’s not unusual to see a 10% monthly increase in the Border region (eg €110,000 in June 2018 and €120,000 in July 2018 and €137,000 in August 2018).

    1. Spaghetti Hoop

      There was a bit of interest in Co.Leitrim following a public call to repopulate rural towns and fill schools. The increase may have nothing to do with the border and Brexit – just people snapping up cheap houses for relocation / holiday homes.

  2. martco

    hmmm. price data is one thing. I’d love to see some data on actual transactions taking place. my understanding is that the housing market has been completely stalled for months now.

    1. GiggidyGoo

      You’re not wrong Martco. Apart from the cities, the asking prices shot up in the past two years, but they are dropping again. The property register prices will make interesting viewing – there is a few months delay in them appearing from house sales, but my own impression is that the asking prices are not being met on a lot of the houses that are ready to move in to. The BidX people may be making their minimum selling prices, but i’ve watched mNy of the biddings and a lot of the houses just have one bidder, and most have only two or three. A lot of the properties are ones that need a lot of work on.

      1. Qwerty123

        He is wrong

        Where did i find this data??? oh yes, the CSO website, referenced in the article, which on the second page of their release shows activity by month which is in between 3-4k per month volume as it has been for 5/6 years. As at june we are looking at 2,700 sales on second hand and 600 new builds

        https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjune2019/additionalindicators/

        And the next page shows you the volume by Eircode if you want to narrow it down further

    2. Cian

      There is data on https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/

      Sales by the last 13 halves (Year of Date of Sale)
      Year H1 H2
      2014   16,046   27,538
      2015   22,371   26,710
      2016   21,436   28,317
      2017   23,709   31,118
      2018   24,881   32,181
      2019   25,072

      July 2019 is down on July 2019 by about 25%, but that might be how long it takes for the data to updated.

      1. Qwerty123

        CSO is based on the PPR and gives monthly totals. Which shows market leveling off and not stalling in my opinion. Bank rules kicking in in Dublin for sure.

        The daft reports, although based on asking prices, have been in line with the CSO data, but they show more info, especially on movement on type of houses whereas the CSO is just mean and median based.

        1. Cian

          PPR data is per property – useful for sales price. But only at county level (and new/secondhand).

          interesting none the less.

  3. some old unicorn

    You may find that the houses which are really going up in value around the border region are those who have a decent size shed- or the space to build them. Join the dots on that one yourselves.

    I wonder if the same is happening on the north-side? I expect it is.

  4. Qwerty123

    CSO are doing some good work over there. Very readable and digestible reports on all parts of Irish life.

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