*Benny Hill music*

at

The Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes poll conducted in a series of ‘face-to-face in-home interviews with 923 eligible Irish voters on January 2-14’

Tonight.

Via The Sunday Times:

While Fine Gael and Fianna Fail were neck and neck on 27% in The Sunday Times/B&A poll last month, the 12-point gap opened between the two parties after the RIC/Black and Tans controversy, while there was no statistically significant shift in support for any of the other parties.

Fine Gael in crisis as Fianna Fail jumps to 12-point lead in polls (Stephen O’Brien, Sunday Times)

Fine Gael delete ‘silly’ video of Fianna Fail TDs set to Benny Hill theme (Buzz,ie)

32 thoughts on “*Benny Hill music*

  1. Someone at Google Viewed Your Profile

    Don’t worry. FG has a strategy.

    “Time for more PR and hashtags, peeps”

  2. GiggidyGoo

    The Thin Blue Line? Polls aren’t noted to be accurate. It’s FFs turn to be paraded as poll leaders now. The intention is to keep the status quo. A FFG C&S arrangement being pushed by stealth by poll.

    If the above poll was indicative of an actual result, then wouldn’t it be a SF/FF coalition that should be on the cards?

    1. bisted

      …the accuracy of polls is measurable and is a snapshot in time…that they don’t reflect the eventual result doesn’t make them inaccurate…

      1. GiggidyGoo

        They are accurate for (in this case 923 people) the people that were polled. 923 people out of 3,200,000 voters however is far from accurate. It represents the opinion of 0.03% being applied across the board. The next poll, from a different company, will show different percentages. Even polls published on the same day in the past didn’t agree with other. Which makes at least one of them inaccurate.

        1. bisted

          …the exit polls have proved to be highly accurate and use a similar sample size…the critical factor being they poll people who have voted…

          1. V

            And also collect wider info about the voter

            Motivation, Age bracket, etc

            In fact the data extracted from the Repeal exits was incrediblbly informative; but there’s room for deeper questioning in a simple Tá / Níl.

            So it’s probably fair to add that a General exit poll, beyond giving us a guesstimate and talking points for the media 12 Hours ahead of the opening tallies, hasn’t much else to offer.

          2. V

            And also collect wider info about the voter

            Motivation, Age bracket, etc

            In fact the data extracted from the Repeal exits was incrediblbly informative; but there’s room for deeper questioning in a simple Tá / Níl.

            So it’s probably fair to add that a General exit poll, beyond giving us a guesstimate and talking points for the media 12 Hours ahead of the opening tallies, hasn’t much else to offer.

        2. tomm

          Yes but that inaccurcy is due to sampling bias versus actual voter demographics and not down to the sample size as you are implying,

          1. GiggidyGoo

            The come back would be though that the demographic was chosen carefully etc. But to put it in context % wise. It’s the equivalent of the views 24 people out of a 80,000 attendance at a music festival taken as gospel as the guide to the quality of the acts in preference order.

          2. Ronan

            Giggidy, that’s a false equivalence,

            The sample size required for 80,000 people is the same as 2,500,000 voters for the same margin of error. 1048 voters is enough for 3% whether he population is 2.5m or 250m, as long as the sample is truly random.

            Now if you wanted to get to 1% margin of error you’d need to sample nearly 10,000 voters at random.

            At the end of the day, polls have a margin of error. It’s trends over time that are useful, not the snapshots of individual polls.

          3. GiggidyGoo

            It’s an equivalence based on percentage. These polls in the weeks coming up to an election do not reflect the intentions of the whole electorate. The polling companies have been left with egg of their face many times in the very recent past – the result of trying to promote a vote towards particular parties. Maybe the ‘truly random’ part is worth looking at – but how can we? RedC and their populating methods for the Citizens Assembly gives an insight as to how trustworthy we should consider them.

  3. Charger Salmons

    Surely it’s all irrelevant ?
    No-one will form a coalition with SF so the next government will be virtually the same as this one with maybe a different leader.
    There’ll be no effective opposition, the new government will attempt to pass exactly the same laws as the last one and fellers in flat caps with a whiff of manure off them will still be treated seriously in Leinster House.
    And the real power will remain in Brussels and Ireland will do as it’s told.
    The great Irish public will still get shafted exactly the same way as before.

    1. Cú Chulainn

      Opinion polls are completely and totally false. They are fixed to influence voters. The headline – FF pulls ahead while ignoring SF’s rise. We will play this game to the vote. Expect lots of shifting between FG and FF. meanwhile, to suggest that Ireland is being shafted by the EU is just preposterous. The standard of living in Ireland, our society and the opportunities available have improved so much over the past 40 years that it is as if we are living in another country. A much better and happier one, even with the problems we have.

        1. Ron

          if you believe 900 odd daw jawed housewives and elderly people who are the only numptys that tend to be at home during the day when these ‘polling people’ tend to call around.

          SF, like in the bye election, will do a lot better than what the polls are saying.

          1. Ronan

            Rubbish. I’ve been polled before in two separate locations at the door. Both times at 6.30pm or later, and both times while living in a c2de area.

            One lady was delighted to catch me ‘it’s hard to catch 25-35 demographic a lot of the time’.

            So she was knocking on doors after working hours to find working people of a particular demographic.

  4. Qwerty123

    Either people have short memories or most likely, absolutely no credible alternative.

    At least Varadkar, Harris etc may be resigned to back benches in the next Dail.

  5. V

    Ah stop
    This is giving polling a bad name – not that it had much work to do, but still.

    The Sunday Times have published that the Shinners are barely a tick behind Leo and the goys
    Think about that lads
    And the effect it will have on the rest of the campaign
    And on the voter

    This poll is not about providing us with campaign news or to give us a snapshot as to the state of the Parties, it’s a call to arms;
    watch the usual mainstream media savage the Shinners while they play footsie with FG, FF, Labour & the Glasraí over the coming weeks.

    It’s no secret the eFFers are going to gain seats – mic drop
    So no amount of polling is needed to convince anyone of that

    If – as I suspect, if we see a similar turnout and % as the locals, the Confidence & Suppliers will have a 52% ish cut of the seats, which will get them over the 80 handy enough
    And as they’ve well established vote machines throughout the country, there might even be a bonus here and there from wiley localised transfers via local Independent and Crank Candidates

    The next Government cocktail will be formed within days of the results
    FF FG and the Glasraís
    And I will be delighted to be proved wrong

    They’ll be new faces in the next Dáil alright
    But the hard left brackets will be the ones making room for them

    Stay tuned for the Exits lads

      1. V

        I’m giving me No 1 to Hazel’s fella, Patrick Costello

        And the preferences will be in order of their appearance at the door

  6. The Main Man

    Yes! We’re back!
    Hopefully this gives the other 10% of former FF voters the confidence to re-join the herd. 80+ seats baby!

  7. ReproBertie

    Every party that goes into coalition with FF suffers at the next election. Happened to Labour, the Greens and the PDs. Now it looks to be happening to FG.

  8. V

    This poll might actually have some use btw
    Shove it under the noses of the RTÉ debate production FG/ FF teams

    Any Shinners about?

    An’ c’mere any idea who in Renua is getting elected

    1. Iwerzon

      By this poll, and a 4% margin of error, SF and FG are neck and neck and RTE should be inviting SF to the leaders debate but come on, RTE are scared of upsetting their paymasters and will do what they are ordered.

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