Fionnan Sheahan, of The Irish Independent

Further to popular demand and following the posting of details yesterday of Montrose-based shambolic soothsaying

…below are the General Election predictions of Fionnan Sheahan, of the Irish Independent.

These were published on January 15, 16, and 17, 2020. As of February 3, 2020, the election polls had shown that, following six national election polls, the combined Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael vote was less than 44%,while Sinn Féin was polling more than twice its local election vote in 2019.

Cork East

Mr Sheahan said:

“Sinn Féin’s Pat Buckley is on the backfoot from Fianna Fáil golden boy James O’Connor and Fine Gael’s Pa O’Driscoll. After a strong local elections showing, Independent Mary Linehan-Foley also fancies her chances. Fine Gael’s David Stanton and Fianna Fáil’s Kevin O’Keeffe are in before a vote is cast, while Labour’s Seán Sherlock never takes anything for granted.”

The result: Mr Buckley topped the poll and was elected on the first count with 12,587 votes, 23.1% of the first preference votes.

Labour’s Seán Sherlock took the second seat, Fine Gael’s David Stanton took the third and Fianna Fáil’s took the fourth seat – all on the eighth count.

Cork South West

Mr Sheahan said:

“Fine Gael should be going for two seats. Instead, the party is worried about holding one. The new ticket of Tim Lombard and Karen Coakley faces a baptism of fire. Fianna Fáil’s Margaret Murphy O’Mahony is joined late in the day by poll-topping councillor Christopher O’Sullivan as the party sniffs Blue blood in Michael Collins country. The other Michael Collins, the sitting Independent TD, will be worried about getting caught in the crossfire.”

The result: Independent Michael Collins took the first seat after the first count with 26.4% of the first-preference votes; Fianna Fáil’s Christopher O’Sullivan took the second and Social Democrats Holly Cairns took the third, both after the eighth count.

Dublin Central

Mr Sheahan said:

“An extra seat is up for grabs with Fianna Fáil’s Mary Fitzpatrick whopping local elections putting her on track in ‘Bertie-land’, with the Green Party’s Neasa Hourigan also in contention. Fine Gael’s Paschal Donohoe is solid, but won’t bring in his running mate Deirdre Duffy. Sinn Féin leader Mary-Lou McDonald is also fine.

The doubt over Independent Maureen O’Sullivan’s intentions – as of now she’s running – meaning her seat is being targeted by Social Democrat Garry Gannon and Labour’s Joe Costello.”

The result: Mary Lou McDonald topped the poll and was elected on the first count with 11,223 votes, 35.7% of the first preference votes.

Green Party’s Neasa Hourigan took the second seat, Fine Gael’s Paschal Donohoe the third and Social Democrats’ Gary Gannon took the fourth, all on the ninth count.

Dublin Rathdown

Mr Sheahan said: “All eyes are on Independent minister Shane Ross, the most coveted scalp of them all. FG’s Neale Richmond, FF’s Shay Brennan and Labour’s Lettie McCarthy are the war party circling him as he seeks refuge in Stepaside Garda Station.

FG minister Josepha Madigan and Green Catherine Martin are safe as houses in the most volatile constituency in the country.”

The result: The Green Party’s Catherine Martin took the first seat after the fifth count, Fine Gael’s Neale Richmond took the second and Fine Gael’s Josepha Madigan took the third, both after the eighth count.

Dun Laoghaire

Mr Sheahan said

“FG’s Mary Mitchell-O’Connor is safe but the party is already down retiring TD Seán Barrett and the ditched Maria Bailey. FG is desperately trying to salvage a disaster with Jennifer Carroll-MacNeill.

Green Ossian Smyth looks unstoppable and also poses a threat to the support of Solidarity’s Richard Boyd-Barrett.

FF’s Mary Hanafin has ministerial potential advantage over her running mate Cormac Devlin in a place where the voters like to elect ministers.”

The result: Richard Boyd Barrett topped the poll and took the second seat with 15.5% of the first-preference votes while Green Party’s Ossian Smyth took the first seat, after securing 14.9% of the first-preference votes. Fine Gael’s Jennifer Carroll Macneill took the third and Fianna Fáil’s Cormac Devlin took the fourth, both after the eighth count.

Kildare North

Mr Sheahan said:

“FF’s dynamic duo of Frank O’Rourke and James Lawless were the party’s biggest success in 2016. They are dug in hard awaiting the onslaught from Labour’s Emmet Stagg and Green Vincent P Martin. FG’s Bernard Durkan and Soc Dem Catherine Murphy are again dependable.”

The result: Sinn Féin’s Réada Cronin took the second seat on count 6 after winning 17.1% of the first preference votes.

Catherine Murphy, of the Social Democrats, topped the poll with 11,008 votes and 19.3% of the first preference votes. Fine Gael’s Bernard Durkan took the third seat and Fianna Fáil’s James Lawless the fourth.

Limerick County

Mr Sheahan said:

“The climate is changing all over the world, but there are no changing winds in west Limerick. The rivalry between Fine Gael Minister Patrick O’Donovan and fellow TD Tom Neville keeps both on their toes. Fianna Fáil’s Niall Collins is as sure as anything. So far, nobody else seems bothered to even put up a proper challenge.”

Fine Gael’s Patrick O’Donovan took the first seat, Fianna Fáil’s Niall Collins took the second and Independent Richard O’Donoghue took the third.

Meath East

Mr Sheahan said:

“Anything other than a return of the sitting trio, FG ministers Regina Doherty and Helen McEntee and FF ministerial contender Thomas Byrne, will be a massive shock. But there’ll still be some craic between the traditional Blueshirt tribe of McEntee and new Fine Gael camp of Doherty along the way.”

The result: Sinn Féin’s Darren O’Rourke topped the poll, taking 24.4% of the first preference votes. He was elected on the second count.

Fine Gael’s Helen McEntee took the second seat and Fianna Fáil’s Thomas Byrne the third, both on the seventh count. Regina Doherty was eliminated on the sixth count.

Tipperary

Mr Sheahan said:

“The Premier County is technically the most independently-minded part of the country with three non-party TDs, Michael Lowry, Mattie McGrath and Seamus Healy. Fine Gael figure Healy is the weakest. The party’s line up of Garret Ahearn and Mary Newman Julian is untested though. Losing two seats and ending up with no TD last time out was a calamity Fine Gael dare not even think of repeating. Fianna Fáil’s Jackie Cahill, Labour’s Alan Kelly and Lowry will get across handily and McGrath should be there too.”

The result: Sinn Féin’s Martin Browne took the third seat when he was elected on the eighth count. He won 12.2% of the first preference votes (the second highest figure).

Independent Michael Lowry was elected on the first count with 18.1% of the first preference votes while Independent Mattie McGrath took the second seat on the eighth count after winning 11.4% of the first preference votes.

Labour’s Alan Kelly took the fourth seat and Fianna Fáil’s Jackie Cahill the fifth.

Carlow-Kilkenny

Mr Sheahan said:

“Whisper it softly but FF could go back to three seats here at FG’s expense.

Everything would need to go their way but FF’s John McGuinness in Kilkenny city, Bobby Aylward in the county and Jennifer Murnane O’Connor can capitalise on a swing.

Of course, Aylward also has to watch out for Murnane O’Connor taking him out if they fall short and are left with two. FG minister John Paul Phelan faces a task to manage the votes of Pat Deering and Patrick O’Neill to hold two seats steady.

SF’s Kathleen Funchion is deep in the relegation zone with Green Malcolm Noonan poised to strike.”

The result: Sinn Féin’s Kathleen Funchion topped the poll and was elected on the first count with 17,493 votes, 23.8% of the first preference votes.

Fianna Fáil’s John McGuinness took the second seat on the sixth count; Fine Gael’s John Paul Phelan took the third on the eighth count; Fianna Fáil’s Jennifer Murnane O’Connor took the fourth seat, also on the eighth count; and Malcolm Noonan, of the Green Party, took the fifth seat on the tenth count.

Dublin Fingal

Mr Sheahan said:

“The gaping hole left in the county town of Swords by Independent Clare Daly’s departure to Brussels is sought after by Labour’s Duncan Smith and her Independent successor Dean Mulligan.

FF’s Darragh O’Brien is back straight away, as is the Greens Joe O’Brien. FG will take one from Alan Farrell and James Reilly. SF’s Louise O’Reilly should be alright but by no means safe, with FF’s Lorraine Clifford-Lee also in the chasing pack.”

The result: Sinn Féin’s Louise O’Reilly topped the poll and was voted on the first count after winning 24.9% of the first preference votes.

The Green Party’s Joe O’Brien got the second seat while Fianna Fáil’s Darragh O’Brien got the third, both after the eight count. Fine Gael’s Alan Farrell took the fourth seat after the 11th count and Labour’s Duncan Smith took the fifth after the 12th count. Clifford-Lee was eliminated after the 10th count.

Dublin South Central

Mr Sheahan said:

“The most left-leaning constituency in the country will decide if it wants to become a little bit more centrist.

FF’s Catherine Ardagh went close enough last time to make her a contender and Labour’s Rebecca Moynihan also finally has a shot.

People Before Profit Bríd Smith and Independents 4 Change Joan Collins are in the danger zone.

“SF’s Aengus Ó Snodaigh is safe, FG minister Catherine Byrne clings on unless it’s a bad day. Green Patrick Costello would want a really big wave.”

The result: Sinn Féin’s Aengus Ó Snodaigh claimed the first seat after claiming 39.3% of the first-preference votes; Solidarity-PBP’s Bríd Smith took the second seat, Green Party’s Patrocl Costello took the third seat and Independents 4 Change’s Joan Collins took the fourth seat.

Kildare South

Mr Sheahan said

“FF already have a seat as Ceann Comhairle Seán Ó Fearghaíl is automatically elected. And there’s a new seat up for grabs from a redraw due to the rising population.

So FF is eyeing up an unlikely hat-trick if Fiona O’Loughlin can bring in Suzanne Doyle.

Labour’s Mark Wall has other ideas and the family tradition to match. If she runs, Independent Fiona McLoughlin-Healy is also in the mix.

FG’s Martin Heydon has no worries and will return.”

The result: Sinn Féin’s Patricia Ryan topped the poll with 21.5% of the first preference votes and was elected on the sixth count.

Fine Gael Martin Heydon took the second seat and Independent Cathal Berry took the third, both on the eighth count.

Longford-Westmeath

Mr Sheahan predicted:

“Pretty simple. The four TDs last time were all from Westmeath, so a Longford candidate will take a seat this time. FG’s Michael Carrigy squares off against FF’s Joe Flaherty for the title.

FG’s Peter Burke, FF’s Robert Troy and Independent minister Kevin ‘Boxer’ Moran then only have to worry about a surge from Labour’s Alan ‘Budda’ Mangan on the Westmeath side.”

The result: Sinn Féin’s Sorca Clarke topped the poll and was elected after the first count winning 11,848 votes, 21% of the first preference votes.

Fianna Fáil’s Joe Flaherty took the second seat, Fine Gael’s Peter Burke the third and Fianna Fáil’s Robert Troy, all after the 10th count.

Meath West

Mr Sheahan said:

“After leaving Sinn Féin, Peadar Tóibín puts his Aontú brand to the test. With nobody shaping up seriously to take him out, he should fend off FG’s Sarah Reilly. Meanwhile, FG minister Damien English and FF’s Shane Cassells are cruising.”

The result: Sinn Féin’s Johnny Guirke topped the poll and was elected after the first count with 12,652 votes or 30.5% of the first preference votes.

Aontú’s Peadar Tóibín took the second seat and Fine Gael’s Damien English took the third, both after the sixth count.

Cavan-Monaghan

Mr Sheahan said:

“FG minister Heather Humphreys is a great bet to be the country’s biggest votegetter.

What’s the point though if she doesn’t bring in running mate TP O’Reilly, who was added late to boost the party’s prospects in the Cavan end?

Expect further great craic in the rivalry between FF’s Brendan Smith and Niamh Smyth. SF MEP Matt Carthy’s return from Europe is a straight swap in Monaghan for the retiring Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin.Aontú’s Sarah O’Reilly is the outside candidate to watch for an upset to the three main parties.”

The result: Sinn Féin’s Matt Carthy took the first seat after the first count with 22.6% of the first-preference votes, Fine Gael’s Heather Humphreys took the second, Sinn Féin’s Pauline Tully took the third, Fianna Fáil’s Brendan Smith took the fourth and his party colleague Niamh Smyth took the fifth.

Dublin Bay North

Mr Sheahan said:

“The group of death last time is still competitive. Apart from FG minister Richard Bruton and FF’s Sean Haughey being elected, nothing else is certain in the ‘Battle of the Bay’.

Independent Cabinet minister Finian McGrath is retiring, so Labour’s Aodhán Ó Riordáin is in prime position to take his seat.

Greens David Healy is well placed to ride the Green wave if it comes in, with the Soc Dems Cian O’Callaghan also a big challenger.

SF’s Denise Mitchell and Independent Tommy Broughan are under pressure.”

The result: Sinn Féin’s Denise Mitchell was elected after topping the poll and on the first count with 21,344 votes, 29.8% of the first preference votes.

Fine Gael’s Richard Bruton took the second seat on the 10th count; Social Democrats’ Cian O’Callaghan took the third; Labour’s Aodhán Ó Ríordáin took the fourth; and Fianna Fáil’s Seán Haughey took the final seat, all on the 14th count.

Dublin Mid West

Mr Sheahan said:

“Sinn Féin’s Eoin Ó Broin and Mark Ward are bravely trying to hold two seats after their by-election bonanza. It looks a bridge too far but they’ll give it a go. Expect FG to take back the seat held by Frances Fitzgerald through Emer Higgins or Vicki Casserly.

“FF’s John Curran is safe out, but People Before Profit’s Gino Kenny has a task on his hands to fend off Labour’s Joanna Tuffy, Independent Paul Gogarty and Green Peter Kavanagh.”

The result: Eoin Ó Broin and Mark Ward took the top two seats. O’Broin topped the poll and was elected after the first count with 11,842 votes, or 26.1% of the first-preference votes. Ward was elected on the second count after winning 16.8% of the first-preference votes.

Fine Gael’s Emer Higgins took the third seat after the ninth count and Gino Kenny took the fourth, also after the ninth count.

Galway West

Mr Sheahan said:

“FF’s Éamon Ó Cuiv always points out his constituency never returns the same TDs. This time is no different with a thriller in store. Ó Cuiv and FG minister Seán Kyne are safe.

“Beyond that, FG’s Hildegrade Naughten and Independents Noel Grealish and Catherine Connolly are vulnerable to challenges from FF’s Ollie Crowe and Green Pauline O’Reilly.

“Soc Dem Niall O Tuathail and Sinn Féin Mairéad Farrell appear less of a threat for their parties than four years ago, but are still in the mix.”

The result: Fianna Fáil’s Eamon Ó Cuív won the first seat, Independent Noel Grealish took the second and Sinn Féin’s Mairéad Farrell took the third, all after the eighth count.

Independent Catherine Connolly took the fourth after the 12th count and Fine Gael’s Hildegarde Naughton took the fifth after the 13th count.

Roscommon-Galway

Mr Sheahan said:

“FG’s former Independent Aisling Dolan has the makings of a fine candidate. But it’s a big ask for her to get there this time, especially as she’s based on the smaller Galway add on side.

FF’s Eugene Murphy appears perturbed by the arrival of running mate Orla Leyden, which suggests he feels under threat from her.

Independent Denis Naughten combines the FG gene pool vote with his own solid backing.

Independent Michael Fitzmaurice shows no sign of being beaten.”

The result: Michael Fitzmaurice topped the poll and was elected after the first count with 28.7% of the first-preference votes. Denis Naughten took the second seat after the fifth count.

Sinn Féin’s Claire Kerrane took the third after winning 17.5% of the first-preference votes. Fine Gael’s Eugene Murphy finished fourth and didn’t retain his seat.

We had to stop there.

UPDATE:

Laois-Offaly

Mr Sheahan said:

“His Black and Tans controversy adds to FG minister Charlie Flanagan’s woes. He’s trying to get running mate Marcella Corcoran-Kennedy across the line. FF look to have the votes to elect Barry Cowen and Sean Fleming, along with Peter Ormond, if they manage it right.

“SF’s Brian Stanley has enough but former SF, now Independent, Carol Nolan doesn’t.

“Independent John Leahy is in the hunt and Green Pippa Hackett is the dark horse to watch carefully.”

The result: Sinn Féin’s Brian Stanley topped the poll and took the first seat after the first count with 24% of the first-preference votes; Fianna Fáil’s Barry Cowen took the second after the eighth count; Independent Carol Nolan took the third after the 11th count, Fine Gael’s Charlie Flanagan took the fourth seat after the tenth count and his party colleague took the final seat after the 11th count.

Louth

Mr Sheahan said:

“The retirement of SF’s Gerry Adams puts his seat up for grabs. Labour Senator Ged Nash masterminded a local election hat-trick in Drogheda to make him a good bet to return. SF’s Imelda Munster and Ruairi O Murchu know only one of them is likely to win.

“FG’s Fergus O’Dowd and FF’s Declan Breathnach should be grand, provided their running mates don’t pip them. Green Mark Dearey, FF’s James Byrne and FG’s John McGahon are chasing former FG TD Peter Fitzpatrick, now an Independent.”

The result: Sinn Féin’s Imelda Munster secured the first seat after the first count, topping the poll with 24.3% of the first-preference votes while Sinn Féin’s Ruairí Ó Murchú took the second seat, also after the first count, having secured 17.5% of the first-preference votes.

Labour’s Ged Nash won the third seat, Fianna Fáil’s Fergus O’Dowd took the fourth and Independent Peter Fitzpatrick took the fifth, all after the tenth count.

Wexford

Mr Sheahan said:

“The by-election 10 weeks ago left a severe imbalance with four TDs all based in the north of the county – FG ministers Paul Kehoe and Michael D’Arcy and FF’s James Browne and Malcolm Byrne.

“The by-election fallout also sees Verona Murphy strongly enter the fray as an Independent, while former TD Mick Wallace is backing another Independent, Seán O’Shea.

“Aontú’s Jim Codd is another alternative.

“Kehoe now appears really vulnerable, while D’Arcy has a fight in Gorey with Byrne.

“FF will win two, with Browne the favourite for one and a battle on then between Byrne in the north and running mates Michael Sheehan and Lisa McDonald in the south.

“Labour leader Brendan Howlin sails home and probably into ministerial office.”

The result: Sinn Féin’s Johnny Mythen topped the poll and was elected after the first count with 18,717 votes, 24.9% of the first-prefernce votes.

Labour’s Brendan Howlin took the second seat after the eighth count; Independent Verona Murphy took the third seat; Fianna Fáil’s James Browne took the fourth seat and Fine Gael’s Paul Kehoe took the fifth seat, all after the 11th count.

Clare

Mr Sheahan said:

“After years on the sidelines, Fianna Fáil’s Cathal Crowe is playing senior hurling now and faring well. Provided Fianna Fáil manages its vote, both Crowe and Timmy Dooley will be elected. Fine Gael has been thrown a lifeline by Independent Michael Harty’s withdrawal.

“But Fine Gael Minister Pat Breen and Joe Carey are far from safe with Independents like Michael McNamara lurking with intent.”

The result: Sinn Féin’s Violet-Anne Wynne took the second seat, after the 10th count. She won 15.1% of the first-preference votes.

Independent Michael McNamara won the first seat on the 10th count after transfers. He won 12.3% of the first-preference votes.

Fianna Fáil’s Cathal Crowe took the third seat and Fine Gael’s Joe Carey took the fourth, also after the 10th count.

Cork South-Central

Mr Sheahan said:

“Take pity on Sinn Féin’s Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire.

“His all-star constituency colleagues are Tánaiste Simon Coveney, Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin and finance spokesman Michael McGrath. All three are guaranteed election.

“Coveney is targeting Ó Laoghaire to get his running mate Jerry Buttimer back in business. And then there’s resurgent Greens newbie Lorna Bogue in contention too.”

The result: Sinn Féin’s Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire topped the poll and won the first seat after the first count with 24.6% of the first-preference votes.

Fianna Fáil’s Micheál Martin took the second seat after the sixth count; Fine Gael’s Simon Coveney took the third after the eighth count and Fianna Fáil’s Michael McGrath took the fourth, also after the eighth count.

Dublin Bay South

Mr Sheahan said:

“FG Housing Minister Eoghan Murphy and fellow TD Kate O’Connell were worried about a potential ‘Rumble in Ranelagh’ if Independent Michael McDowell ran. McDowell has now ruled that out and is sticking with the Seanad.

“Greens leader Eamon Ryan is safe as D4 property prices. Labour’s Kevin Humphries poses a threat to FG and FF’s Jim O’Callaghan if there’s any slip ups on their part. But it should be same again.”

The result: The Green Party’s Eamon Ryan topped the poll and was voted after the first count, having secured 22.4% of the first-preference votes.

Sinn Féin’s Chris Andrews took the second seat, after the eighth count, having secured 16.1% of the first-preference votes.

Fine Gael’s Eoghan Murphy took the third seat and Fianna Fáil’s Jim O’Callaghan took the fourth, both after the eighth count.

Dublin West

Mr Sheahan said:

“Taoiseach Leo Varadkar desperately needs to win two seats for FG. Aside from the Taoiseach’s running mate Emer Currie, Labour’s Joan Burton also has Greens Roderic O’Gorman breathing down her neck. But Solidarity’s Ruth Coppinger is hardly feeling safe owing to SF’s Paul Donnelly. FF’s Jack Chambers seems solid.”

The result: Sinn Féin’s Paul Donnelly topped the poll and was elected after the first count, taking 28.6% of the first-preference votes.

Fine Gael’s Leo Varadkar took the second seat after the fifth count and Fianna Fáil’s Jack Chambers took the third after the sixth count.

Limerick City

Mr Sheahan said:

“Willie O’Dea would absolutely guarantee a Cabinet place in a Fianna Fáil government by bringing home running mate James Collins. There’s no shortage of targets. Fine Gael’s Maria Byrne and Kieran O’Donnell are a weak line up. Labour’s Jan O’Sullivan is never safe and Sinn Féin’s Maurice Quinlivan is also shaky. Green Brian Leddin is being tipped as an outside bet to pull off a shock.”

The result: Sinn Féin’s Maurice Quinlivan topped the poll and secured the first seat after the first count, taking 23.9% of the first-preference votes.

Fianna Fáil’s Willie O’Dea took the second seat, after the second count and Fine Gael’s Kieran O’Donnell took the second seat after the eighth count. The Green Party’s Brian Leddin took the final seat after the ninth count.

Mayo

Mr Sheahan said:

“The end of an era with Enda Kenny’s departure but there’s no sign of the FG and FF dominance being broken.

“FG minister Michael Ring will romp home.

“Any slippage by Kenny’s substitute, former Mayo footballer, Alan Dillon will give running mate Michelle Mulherin a chance.

“FF deputy leader Dara Calleary is Cabinet bound if all goes well for his leader. His running mate Lisa Chambers points out she’s in for an exciting year on lots of fronts as she cryptically shows photos of babygrows on her social media account.

“The first delivery is her holding her seat, which she will.

“A challenge to the Old Firm will come from SF’s Rose Conway-Walsh and Greens Saoirse McHugh. As of now, it’s not near making an impact.”

The result: Sinn Féin candidate took the second seat after the first count with 22.7% of the first-preference votes, just behind Fine Gael’s Michael Ring who took the first seat with 23% of the first-preference votes.

Fianna Fáil’s Dara Calleary took the third seat on the seventh count and Fine Gael’s Alan Dillon took the fourth, also after the seventh count.

Wicklow

Mr Sheahan said:

“Chalk down FG ministers Simon Harris and Andrew Doyle. Likewise FF’s Pat Casey.

“Then the fun starts. FF convert Stephen Donnelly and SF’s John Brady are both in trouble in the north of the county from Green Steven Matthews and Soc Dem Jennifer Whitmore, plus FG’s Billy Timmins if it’s a really good day for the party he has rejoined.”

The result:  Sinn Féin’s John Brady topped the poll and took the first seat after securing 24.3% of the first-preference votes while Social Democrat Jennifer Whitmore took the second seat after the 14th count.

Fine Gael’s Simon Harris took the third seat; Fianna Fáil’s Stephen Donnelly took the fourth and the Green Party’s Steven Matthews took the fifth, all after the 15th count.

Yesterday: Predictive Mess

27 thoughts on “Mystic Mug

    1. V

      Yeah
      But RBB topped the poll – 15.5% 1st prefs
      Ossian 14.9%

      btw Jennifer Carroll MacNeill did exceptionally well with 12.4% of No. 1s; and probably a soon to be Minister

      —————– Jaysus, where the dúck did I go wrong

      Reply
  1. Charger Salmons

    Sheahan has never been quite the same since Vinnie Browne gave him both barrels on his programme and the outraged hack vowed never to appear on it again.
    What I’d give to have the old rottweiler back on our screens again.Until he started losing the plot slightly Browne was just about the only Irish television hack prepared to ask the really difficult questions and to hell with the egos of the politicians.

    Reply
  2. :-Joe

    Thanks Bodger / BS for publishing these interesting post-mortem/autopsey’s on the ideology by these political wonk’s…
    & also all your other election coverage, very good reading including comments.

    The media needs a big shake up and a healthy refresh too…
    – It’ll have to happen eventually or it wll just eat itself.

    :-J

    Reply
  3. Charger Salmons

    It reminds me of the shock on the faces of the BBC experts when the exit poll gave Boris such a massive majority in the general election.
    The Guardinistas at Television Centre went into meltdown.
    But nothing will ever compare to the collective CNN breakdown and tearfest on the night the Don got elected.
    Especially the ” expert ” who predicted a 1% chance of it happening at the beginning of the night.
    Good times.

    Reply
    1. Hansel

      Charger, I think that’s an important thing to talk about. This happened in the UK and US and it was a case of “left wing media always getting it wrong”. Here on Broadsheet we’re reading “right wing media always getting it wrong”.

      I think it’s just “media getting it wrong” in the current era.
      Possibly based on polling methods not being fit for purpose in the modern era.

      Reply
      1. class wario

        Hansel, I think the distinction made between ‘left’ and ‘right’ in your comment is a bit of a facade tbh. What passes for ‘left’ media in the UK and particularly the US is often just garden variety neoliberal commentators. Same goes for what is considered the ‘right wing media’ in Ireland. You’re correct in that it’s just the media getting it wrong but the point is that the media is often made up of a huge amount of people with similar backgrounds, social circles and views. Many of these people grew up and came up through the ranks at a time of peak third way-ism. They probably cite the West Wing as their favourite show. They see themselves as the ultimate arbiters of ‘sensible’ politics and believe they can perceive outcomes that regular Joe Soap could never envision. there is a huge amount of ideology, however knowingly or otherwise, feeding into their analysis but it is being portrayed as objective analysis. politics in the modern era has passed these people by in a huge way and they’re not able to recalibrate to fix it. This is why I mentioned below that I really hope that we see more prominent left voices in our media because as is any people of the sort are totally below the surface and not able to justify a change in position.

        Reply
        1. Hansel

          Yep agreed, it’s “groupthink” with a fancy name really.
          I don’t think it’s really “right wing media” or “left wing media”. It feels more like “lazy media” to me.

          Reply
  4. Kevin Higgins

    Not been quite the same since his significant demotion within the Indo group.
    “Ireland Editor” — “Director of Football”
    Unsure how long he will hang around counting paper-clips,

    Reply
  5. Hansel

    I still think you guys are being hasty here.
    You’re saying these predictions were published on 19-Jan-20.

    As i said yesterday, I’d have agreed with that at the time. It was only late in the canvassing that I began to hear people saying “SF are way up there”. None of the independent polls before the election had SF as high as they ended up. SF didn’t even think they were that high up. Like the UK and US, it wasn’t predicted, but I don’t think that makes it a conspiracy. It’s just a surprise.

    I don’t think it’s fair to suggest that the likes of this lad – however bad he is – should be second-guessing the polls. If he was going against the polls, we’d be rightly criticising him also. Now maybe the polls need to be fixed, but that’s a different discussion.

    Reply
    1. Spaghetti Hoop

      Polls don’t suit STV elections, which is why they are simply not worth the energy that goes into them and in analysing them. All of the analysis like the above is just keeping media folk in jobs.

      They also prop up debate and discussion which I think should flow freely without polls.

      Also missed Vincent Browne this election.

      Reply

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