Anything Good In The Lancet?

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This morning.

The Lancet, a weekly medical journal, has published a new Covid-19 modelling research article.

It tweetz:

First comprehensive hospitalisation estimates from mainland China and latest death rate estimates to help countries prepare as global pandemic unfolds.

Nearly one in five over-80 year olds infected with Covid-19 are likely to require hospitalisation, compared with around 1% of people younger than 30 years old, with hospitalisation estimates found to increase with age.

The death rate from confirmed Covid-19 cases is estimated at 1.38%, while the overall death rate including unconfirmed cases, is estimated at 0.66%; rates are lower than past estimates, given adjustments for demographics and undetected symptomatic cases.

Authors warn: Without intervention, number of people with Covid-19 needing hospital treatment is likely to overwhelm even advanced health-care systems worldwide, but caution that outcomes could improve and estimates should be revised as pandemic unfolds.

Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis (The Lancet)

1 thought on “Anything Good In The Lancet?

  1. Zaccone

    Thats quite positive news I think. Essentially for everyone under 50 with no underlying health conditions this is no more dangerous than a ‘normal’ flu.

    Given the results of studies like this it might make sense for governments, when they’re doing it, to relax the quarantine gradually on an age basis – first for only under 50s, then on-wards from there.


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