The Lancet, a weekly medical journal, has published a new Covid-19 modelling research article.
First comprehensive hospitalisation estimates from mainland China and latest death rate estimates to help countries prepare as global pandemic unfolds.
Nearly one in five over-80 year olds infected with Covid-19 are likely to require hospitalisation, compared with around 1% of people younger than 30 years old, with hospitalisation estimates found to increase with age.
The death rate from confirmed Covid-19 cases is estimated at 1.38%, while the overall death rate including unconfirmed cases, is estimated at 0.66%; rates are lower than past estimates, given adjustments for demographics and undetected symptomatic cases.
Authors warn: Without intervention, number of people with Covid-19 needing hospital treatment is likely to overwhelm even advanced health-care systems worldwide, but caution that outcomes could improve and estimates should be revised as pandemic unfolds.