“Hidden From View”

at

CEO of the HSE Paul Reid at a media briefing yesterday

On Sunday.

In the Business Post, Susan Mitchell reported:

Multiple media outlets have sought precise details of the extent of the testing backlog.

The HSE and the Department of Health have repeatedly refused to disclose this information. This is not because the information does not exist. It does.

In fact, detailed information on the backlog is collated and broken down by individual geographical areas called community healthcare organisations (CHO) within the HSE.

An official document dated March 27, but labelled confidential, laid it all out clearly. Back then, there was a testing backlog of just over 83,013 according to “information available” on March 23.

More up-to-date figures are certainly available. They’re simply being hidden from view.

Further to this…

Yesterday, CEO of the HSE Paul Reid told journalists that the backlog of Covid-19 tests has dropped from around 35,000 people waiting for results to 11,000.

He also said he expects the backlog to be fully cleared by the end of the week.

Anyone?

Susan Mitchell: Do not test the public’s patience by keeping the truth from them (Business Post)

Related: Coronavirus: Republic reports 31 further deaths as cases pass 10,000 (The Irish Times)

Previously: The Wait Debate

Nine Days Ago

Rollingnews

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17 thoughts on ““Hidden From View”

  1. les rock

    21 days now We’ve been waiting on results. Both my wife and I have been perfectly fine. Have been unable to work in that time. Herself can work from home, I can’t. Rang the hse helpline and I must say they were extremely helpful, gave me the number of a lab. Phoned the lab last friday no results as of yet.

  2. Hansel

    I suspect the difference in numbers could stem from the poorly-chosen language of “testing backlog”.

    There was a backlog of people who were referred for testing and also a backlog of people who are waiting on results (like “les rock” above). The HSE are stating that the latter comprised of 35,000 last week and comprised of 11,000 on Saturday, and hope to drop it to zero by the end of this week.

    The former (people waiting for a test) could perhaps have been the source of the 89,000 figure. I don’t know.

    I think we are doing OK on testing. Not top of the table and far from perfect but not terrible, and gradually improving.
    My hope is that frontline workers particularly can get access to quick regular testing soon. A turnaround of 24 hours in getting people tested and informed of the result would make a big difference to the people being burned out on the frontline from covering each other’s absences.

    I suspect it’d also make a difference in limiting the spread the virus because so many of the cases appear to be within the various healthcare environments.

    Good to ask the questions and look for clarity, in fairness.

    The other question I would like to know the answer to is: “can we see the revised infection figures for previous days, now that the results are arriving from Germany? Or are the German results being added to today’s total?”
    This has significant impact on showing us “where we are” in the curve.

    1. Cian

      The German results aren’t added to today’s total – which is why we have the confusing multiple totals. I don’t believe they’re releasing revised historical totals though – merely today’s figure, results that came back from Germany today, the total ignoring german figures, and the actual total.

      1. frank

        ‘The German lab results’. A fantastic mcguffin to further fudge the facts.
        Lots of F’s there for FFS

        1. Hansel

          Frank, don’t attribute to intelligence what could be easily attributed to incompetence!

          Yes the German results cause the figures to be a mess, but I don’t believe it’s intentional, rather that they’re scrambling to make good sense of bad data. Those tests were from a scattergun of dates, and the returns flow in daily. Re-doing and validating a dataset daily would be quite a messy job, in my experience.

          The Irish government are doing a reasonably good job on reporting compared with other countries. UK is not counting nursing home deaths. Germany’s counts are an unintelligible mess due to the vast array of methodologies and sources. Our results are reasonably transparent.

          Hopefully the delayed German lab numbers should no longer be a factor after this week.

          1. steve white

            Holohan said they had ‘by date’ data they gave to modellers but they havn’t published them apart from the unclear charts they showed yesterday at the briefing.

          2. Hansel

            Yes steve, this is the dataset I would like access to.

            If they’re not comfortable with sharing it because it’s changing so frequently, then just be open and say that it’s constantly being updated and data is added.

          3. Hansel

            Fully agreed.

            I think without that detail, we (the general public) have no clear picture what’s going on.

            My suspicion is that the majority of infections are happening in the healthcare sector, primarily in the Dublin area, that it’s way out of control right now, and that they’re trying to get a handle on it.

            If I’m right, the lockdown measures would need to continue for a good few more weeks to be effective. It’d mean we’re locking down a majority of people who are not at risk, and keeping the at-risk people moving around. Not good.

    2. Chucky R. Law

      Regardless of where the test was processed, the fact that the curve is based on day of test result, rather than day test was taken (up to 3 weeks beforehand) or even day test was requested (up to 4/5/6 weeks beforehand) means the curve is a pile of poo. If they are making critical decisions based on that curve then they are fools that are also taking us for fools.

      1. Hansel

        I appreciate what you’re saying, but the curve wouldn’t be a “pile of poo”, it would simply be out of date data.
        As testing improves, we’d expect to see a rise in the number of cases initially, and then – ideally – a reduction thereafter.

        But fundamentally we need both that quick turnaround and high volume of testing.

        I was one of the first people I knew to get upset at hearing about the test results backlog (at the end of March) because I knew those numbers meant that we would be in isolation/quarantine for much longer.

        My estimate then was start of June for the beginning of a reduction in isolation measures, and I still stand by that. We need proof of an R0 of below one. We need confidence that all new cases are being captured early. We’re still a few weeks away from that.

  3. Chucky R. Law

    There are also the unknown “won’t test” numbers who were infected (and displayed multiple symptoms) and have recovered at home, but weren’t tested because they aren’t in a priority group, or they live with someone who tested positive, but that test result took so long to come back that the others in the household won’t be tested.

  4. frank

    I’d be interested in the number of people that received the Swift Queue text from the HSE saying they wouldn’t be tested at all. As follows, received after 10 days waiting for a test :
    Dear Patient, Your COVID 19 test referral is cancelled. Only at risk groups/ high risk of exposure to COVID 19 and fever and 1 other symptom will be tested. Please see http://www.hse.ie/coronavirus for more information.

    I fell ill on the 17th of March. I had more than one symptom. Including a temp of 38.8. I also have an immunocompromised child. Was sick for perhaps 6 days. Dizzy, temperature, chills, headaches, pains in arms and legs, not quite able to catch my breath. I’m fine now. Just have no idea if I had it or not.

    After this experience I realised the HSE figures and information are total rubbish and frankly you’d be an idiot if you placed your trust in them. But you probably already knew that…. based on you know… previous form.

  5. MaryLou's ArmaLite

    Excluding micro nations, we have a testing rate that puts us about 15th in the world, similarly rates with Austria and Germany who are slightly ahead of us. We have higher testing rates than Hong Kong, South Korea, Canada and Spain.

    1. Hansel

      Agreed.
      Where we’ve fallen down is that gap in the testing.
      Lack of access to a high volume of PCR tests for a few weeks really killed us.
      But now our local universities and pharmas have stepped up massively, so we should be on the right track again. It’ll take a few weeks to reap the rewards unfortunately.

      I believe: we need to focus heavily on the healthcare sector initially. Then very detailed contact tracing, much better than we have been doing.
      I also believe that Denmark are coming out of isolation far too early. Their numbers match ours almost exactly. They’re “winging it” and I don’t think it’ll end well.

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