Stay. Very. Still.

at

Chief Medical Officer, Department of Health Dr. Tony Holohan at a press briefing last night; charts at last night’s briefing.

 

Last night.

We’re moving without movement.

Data suggests people starting to increase movement, says chief medical officer (Belfast Telegraph)

Rollingnews

Meanwhile…

144 thoughts on “Stay. Very. Still.

  1. Newname

    Increasing movement could also be a result of all the online commentary saying deaths have not increased year on year, so nothing to worry about (they have increased hugely everywhere that didn’t implement lockdown early enough), that the restrictions are probably excessive, that maybe the illness isn’t too bad, that the warnings are “project fear”.
    I’ve been so angry with broadsheet for publishing so much of that crap lately.

    1. Bodger

      Newname, we have been as bewildered as you. I had felt our posts expressed that confusion rather than promoting fear.

      1. Newname

        I’m not bewildered, I live in northern Italy, I’m frightened for my family and friends at home, and heartbroken at the scenes here.
        I know I posted this video before, it is from over a month ago, the situation became much worse since.
        https://youtu.be/PFgq1oYo1N4
        The ONLY important message now is to do everything possible to avoid this situation in Ireland. Even though it is hard, and we have been on lockdown for 2 months, I know it is hard, it is without doubt better than the alternative, which I don’t believe has been understood based on the posts and comments here.

          1. Newname

            The very opposite. Posts with reference to fear porn regarding government messaging on warnings, and posts complaining about the level of restrictions, encourage an environment where the current rules are not respected as the life saving measures they are.
            Ireland is badly positioned for a full hit of this virus with the health service in its current condition, we don’t have the capacity we need to sustain any increases, never mind a dramatic increase as was seen in northern Italy, which for all its faults does have an excellent health service, with double the number of icu beds per capita relative to Ireland

          2. Newname

            Apologies for spamming you here, I’ve already given my views, and reasons for same, can I ask for a clarification?
            When you say you are trying to do the opposite what is it that you are trying to do? Just prevent panic, or spread the message it is a storm in a teacup? Or some third option?

          3. Commenter #1

            Newname, I’d speculate that it is a combination of your second option, and a third. The general tenor of the Broadsheet coverage is that the impact of Covid 19 has been overblown. I think Bodger, whoever is controlling the username these days, probably believes this him/herself.

            However, Broadsheet is generally careful not to make explicit their “editorial line” so that they can maintain plausible deniability if/when it turns out they were wrong. It’s very similar to how climate issues are covered on here, too.

          4. Commenter #1

            I think it’s more pathetic than disgraceful to be honest. More fool me for taking Broadsheet seriously I suppose.

        1. f_lawless

          ” Even though it is hard, and we have been on lockdown for 2 months, I know it is hard, it is without doubt better than the alternative, which I don’t believe has been understood”

          But are you sure you fully understand the catastrophic consequences the extreme lockdown measures are having on Italian communities – particularly those not inside the more affluent northern region?

          There’s millions who live from day to day, working off the books. Before the economy was shut down, 7% of the Italian population were already living in “absolute poverty”. God knows what that figure is now.

          Article from back on April 1st:

          https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/01/singing-stops-italy-fear-social-unrest-mount-coronavirus-lockdown

          “They are no longer singing or dancing on the balconies,” said Salvatore Melluso, a priest at Caritas Diocesana di Napoli, a church-run charity in Naples. “Now people are more afraid – not so much of the virus, but of poverty. Many are out of work and hungry. There are now long queues at food banks.”

          Mayor of Catania, Sicily: “The situation is extremely delicate as a significant part of the population has zero income. Those who before lived with dignity, now find themselves in difficulty.”

          Let me guess, you’re not one of those people with zero income?

          1. Newname

            You know nothing about my situation, or those of my friends and family here.
            Is your understanding based on reading the papers? How deep is your understanding of italian community life?

          2. Clampers Outside

            He made a fair point, and through a throwaway / rhetorical question at the end.

            Why not address the points he made, rather than focus on that last sentence. The points are valid after all.

          3. Newname

            I see your point clampers.
            It is a complicated story, and it is true many communities require more support than they have received, but if the only information you get about those community issues is from english language newspapers it would take a book to fill in the blanks, and the different biases and rivalries that come into play.
            But the requirements for more support for those communities don’t mean lockdown was wrong, considering the speed of spread and all the deaths in the absence of lockdown.

    2. Frank

      you point the finger at Broadsheet for irresponsible coverage yet what should be the most trusted source in the country, the health minister, tells us there is no cure for Covid19 or the other 18 deadly Covids.
      a case of misplaced ire

      1. Cian

        Agreed he totally messed up badly with his “there have been 18 other coronaviruses “. However he wasn’t totally wrong. There are other coronaviruses:

        Four human coronaviruses produce symptoms that are generally mild:
        1.Human coronavirus OC43 (HCoV-OC43), β-CoV
        2.Human coronavirus HKU1 (HCoV-HKU1), β-CoV
        3.Human coronavirus 229E (HCoV-229E), α-CoV
        4.Human coronavirus NL63 (HCoV-NL63), α-CoV

        Three human coronaviruses produce symptoms that are potentially severe:
        1.Middle East respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (MERS-CoV), β-CoV
        2.Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV), β-CoV
        3.Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), β-CoV

        1. Formerly known as @ireland.com

          He was totally wrong in what he said. He should know how the virus got its name. We all know there are other corona viruses.

          1. Cian

            He was wrong in saying there were 18 other coronaviruses.
            He was right that there are other coronaviruses without vaccines.

            “We all know there are other corona viruses.” Do you? because you just said he was totally wrong.

      1. Cian

        “This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions and cities.”
        It is only people that are *looking* for directions from Apple maps. If you know where you’re going it isn’t included.

  2. Frank

    the longer this goes on it feels it’s more a trial of compliance than the limitation of a (ahem) “deadly” virus.
    Also… the state are tracking Apple users WTF.

      1. Frank

        you’re right Noname. it is deadly to 0.2% of population the other 70 80 90% of people that get it have mild or no effects at all.
        so is it ‘deadly’? to the vast percentage no it is not.
        for someone so engaged with the morality of others you’re quick to the bottom with your name calling. bumface

        1. Newname

          Why do you think the hospitals in Italy (again, double the icu beds compared to Ireland and a system that is not constantly on the verge of crisis) were so over run if it is no big deal?
          When I called you an idiot I was being charitable.

          1. Frank

            why indeed is Italy so effected? you’re there, our Newname on the street if you will. tell us what is the explanation from the italian press and health service?
            name calling wont get you in to heaven irrespective of your charity bumbumface

          2. Newname

            Virus arrived in italy in February, widespread transmission throughout February and the first week of march before lockdown limited it. Work continued as normal, people went to bars, matches, fashion week, travelled for work etc.
            It overwhelmed the system because it is incredibly contagious, can be transmitted prior to display of symptoms, and takes a long time to recover from. Even the young healthy people I know who got it took weeks to recover, if you go into icu and remain for a month, while other people continue to need admission.
            It isn’t complicated, it is brutal.
            If you think there is something special about Italy that lead to so many people dying, but that would not apply to ireland, what do you think it is? And how confident are you?

        2. Commenter #1

          What number/percentage of people dead would it take to convince you that the restrictions were an effort to limit the virus, and not a trial of compliance?

          If it is a trial of compliance, who decided to put it in place, and why have some countries not done so?

        3. Clampers Outside

          “bumface”

          Nice! I’ll keep it on file under
          ‘Passes Moderation Cuss List’

    1. Covid V

      Actually Frank, I’m closing in on being convinced that its an experiment
      like a mass world-wide experiment,
      on our capacity to cope and manage a global pandemic

      not stocking up on tingfoil yet – but have a go bag (⌐■_■) and bottles of gas down the ‘van

      1. Frank

        I’ve gone through several theories.
        My favorite conspiracy I’ve came up with is:
        A group of extreme climate change activists hack the mainframe at the Wuhan institute of virology (with the help of the Bill Gates foundation. It so happens the mainframe is running MS Dos). A young girl in a hat and yellow coat (much like Greta Thunberg but subtly different for copyright reasons) played by Saoirse Ronan frees 19 monkeys riddled with the deadly Covid viruses (1-19, each more deadly than the last). One of the monkeys eats Thunbergs face off when she tries to give it a vegan snack. Anyway – the worlds leading Virologist (Liam Neason) must track and destroy all the monkeys before the deadly virus kills everyone in the world with a nasty cold. Neasons ex-wife would be played by Eva Green his sassy intern would be Ana de Armas. Neason enlists the help of top British doctor for monkey medicines Gemma Arterton. Pretty sure there would be the hint of a lesbian subplot.
        Plot twist – when they capture Covid19 monkey in the White House it turns out there is another monkey – Covid20 – this opens up the possibility of sequels.
        Plot twist 2 – Covid20 monkey can talk (voiced by Chris Rock) and goes around in a tutu and roller skates.
        It’s working title is BANANAS

        1. Covid V

          Cut Neeson for on of the Hemsworth boys

          And How would you feel about having Kingsmen era Mr D’Arcy and Brosnan’s 007 in there somewhere

          Mebbe for a CIA/ Deep State Character that looks good in tailored suits and immaculate white shirts
          And the other for Government PR Press handler part

          And a dog
          You’ll need a dog
          And a kid waiting on a transplant
          Diabetes works too

          We have the premise there now of something decent

  3. Kim The Cardassian

    This data doesn’t tell us that people aren’t complying with the rules though. As a country we love jumping to conclusions and blaming people. In this together me bottikins.

    1. Commenter #1

      The data appears to show that there are more people apparently driving and/or moving around now than there were when the restrictions first came into force. Although I realise I might be guilty of producing “fear porn” (lol), I’d rather we were over-cautious in the face of Covid 19 than the alternative.

      1. Cian

        “This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions and cities.”
        It is only people that are *looking* for directions from Apple maps. If you know where you’re going it isn’t included.

          1. Cian

            Are you suggesting that the Apple data above is not generated in that fashion?

            Quick – where’s my tinfoil hat!

          2. GiggidyGoo

            Maybe gullible is a better word. Sheez. Next thing you’ll be telling us is that there really is a tooth fairy.
            Google Maps / Waze are what I suspect most people use, even in I-thinks.

  4. Johnnythree

    Hmmm. A few thoughts.
    We are in a soup of data where almost any data can prove any point.
    This is a pandemic. There is confusion about how infectious it is because we don’t know how many people have it. The only way we can know is through testing. We are not testing enough and the criteria for testing is too tight to make it a meaningful tool to assess infectiousness. So, the Government cannot continue restrictions forever, people will drift back. Either they try harder to lock down or start dong a lot of testing (WHO = test, test, test) so we know where clusters are/ how is is spreading.
    The infectiousness of the virus now is below 1. Great. But thats in a completely unsustainable lockdown environment. To keep it below 1 we will need more testing, as above.
    The introduction of tracking via apple data as shown in this story or an App (opt in??) will only work if you have testing – how else are you going to drive it if you don’t have a baseline of infected cohort?
    There are concerns, rightfully about data and opting in and privacy.

    Italy: We have all seen the warnings, ICU figures etc. Maybe Ireland will run like Italy, maybe it won’t. From my reading there are a number of factors that contributed to Italys issues:
    1. Multigenerational houses – with two/ three generations in the same small space.
    2. Poor social distancing
    3. Poor lockdown adherence – treated like a holiday in the beginning.
    4. Poor political leadership
    5. Fragmented regional approach – Veneto did i t well but not everyone did the same
    6. Lots of close social contact
    7. Poor PPE or none for healthcare workers. Look at the stats for HCW infection in Italy.

    Everyone giving out about Swedens approach – herd immunity etc. But, think about the second and third waves of this virus in the coming months (some estimates say 9 waves needed) I think Sweden will have its death toll early but will achieve herd immunity faster than any other country. It will be better placed in later waves and have less social and economic disruption in later waves. There is obviously the human cost though.

    There is a hope of a vaccine – not yet though. So, is continued social distancing gonna cut it? Lockdown? Maybe not.
    Why are we not testing more?
    Why are we not wearing masks?
    Why is the Government not splitting out cases so we know precisely testing date/ area of occurrence/ setting and outcome?
    Long term we have to accept either a vaccine saves us a lot of heartache but what happens till then? I’m not at all confident the Government are giving us the right figures nor are they doing the right things in the right order. Lockdown only lasts so long so we need to see the next proposal and it needs to be coupled with getting the economy running again whilst keeping the virus under check. We are only now holding the % growth under 3%, with all the lockdown effort.
    The question the Government are not able to answer is ‘What measures will be acceptable socially & politically that will keep the infection rate low and stimulate the economy at the same time. They have never been able to answer those sort of questions because that requires nuance and insight and I think that’s missing right now.
    Great thread BTW.

    1. Formerly known as @ireland.com

      “Everyone giving out about Swedens approach – herd immunity etc. But, think about the second and third waves of this virus in the coming months (some estimates say 9 waves needed) I think Sweden will have its death toll early but will achieve herd immunity faster than any other country. It will be better placed in later waves and have less social and economic disruption in later waves. There is obviously the human cost though.”

      Herd immunity which may not exist, which may last 40 weeks, nobody knows.

      1. Johnnythree

        Agreed. Three of the main things researchers have to figure out:
        1. Can we get a vaccine, how, when, at what cost , with what tradeoffs
        2. Is there immunity? For how long?
        3. How infectious is this?

        If it is more infectious than we know then herd immunity will be achieved faster as people are being infected silently. The USA study published last week found that in one community with I think 1400 cases and 70 deaths the underlying population with antibodies already in April was 40 – 50K people ( I will have to double check source and actual figures). If this is the case then natural herd immunity will be reached. A vaccine will help though – particularly for older, at risk and HCW.
        If they can answer the above then we are in a far better place.

    2. f_lawless

      “From my reading there are a number of factors that contributed to Italys issues:”

      Here’s a few more for your list of possible contributing factors: All in all, am left with the impression that it was a “perfect storm” scenario

      8. Northern Italy has the worst air pollution in Europe. High levels of air pollution believed to be “one of the most important contributors” to Covid-related deaths according to recent studies. Also, many Italians are smokers.

      9. Italy has the oldest population in Europe

      10 Italy has the highest antibiotic resistance in the EU.
      https://www.ansa.it/english/news/science_tecnology/2019/11/19/italy-top-in-eu-in-antibiotic-resistance_369e0123-0107-445e-8c17-f11932c9d27c.html
      According to a report dated March 20th, over 80% of the Covid-infected patients who subsequently died were also taking antibiotics while in hospital

      https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_20_marzo_eng.pdf

      11. Interesting anecdotal account from an observer in Italy of how the lockdown itself caused the healthcare system to spiral out of control:
      https://swprs.org/covid-19-a-report-from-italy/

      Summary:The impending radical lockdown measures caused a panicked exodus of eastern European workers from nursing homes in northern Italy. After days of being neglected, many of these elderly and disabled residents ended up in hospitals needing medical attention. However, the hospitals, already overloaded for years, couldn’t cope, leading to a chaotic collapse of the health care system.

  5. Scoundered for You

    Sunlight Kills the Virus
    Obama is a lizard robot
    911 was shot in Pinewood Studios by JJ Abrams.
    Cobona Pandemic mask shortages is Fake

    I love kittens

      1. Clampers Outside

        Em… No, no zing at all.

        Read it again.

        He didn’t say the virus was fake, in fairness.

  6. GiggidyGoo

    What kind of spinmeister phrase is this ‘…an increase in patterns of driving…’

  7. SOQ

    69% of Irish coronavirus deaths have occurred in a residential care type facility.

    https://combatarena.ie/69-of-irish-coronavirus-deaths/

    I don’t know anything about who is behind this site but I totally agree with what they are saying on this subject. Just imagine how much lower that figure would have been if government had not instructed nursing homes to reopen and had provided proper PPE to staff?

    1. Johnnythree

      Yes, I agree. But, if we found through more testing that the prevalence was much higher that thought then that would drive up the infectiousness and drive down the % mortality. I think any of the studies I have seen recently will eventually reach that conclusion. Already we know it has a 2-4% death rate. If the disease is not managed it has the potential to have a higher death rate.
      But that still means that 2-4 people of a hundred infected will die. If you are not managing it then you have a UK/ Italy scenario. My guess is that more testing will reveal it is more infectious but less harmful than we are lead to believe. I say that with thoughts going to all who have lost loved ones to the disease.
      I do think we knew early on that this disease was specifically difficult in the older age group yet there was no targeted testing or strategy for dealing with that group. If we managed that early and well we would have reduced deaths (our overall death rate would go down) but also reduced transmission among healthcare workers and subsequently into the community. The biggest failing was not managing Care Homes as it exploded our death rate and community transmission rates. Testing now is important but its now really only confirming transmission as opposed to a tool to prevent transmission. Care Homes & Healthcare workers should be the focus of ongoing testing until the rates fall there. Wasted opportunity to test will have to be spun.

      1. D

        > Already we know it has a 2-4% death rate.
        It’s actually a gradient, based on the data from bigger infection sites and also seemingly more fatal for men. It’s better to go and look at the numbers for this than bandy numbers around like that because they are quite misleading. Really you’d want to be giving about eight numbers or so 20/40/60/80 male female… nevermind underlying health conditions. The number you gave here is really quite high for the under 20s and really quite low for the over 80s.

        You probably know this already, I shouldn’t be lecturing you.

        1. SOQ

          Already we know it has a 2-4% death rate.

          There is absolutely no way of knowing that. To calculate the fatality rate you first need to know what the 100% is and that would require a national screening program. What is emerging is that the infection rate has been grossly under estimated because most people are either asymptomatic or had mild symptoms which they assumed was something else.

          Anyways, my original point was that this shocking figure of ‘69% of Irish coronavirus deaths have occurred in a residential care type facilities’ has been completely ignored by Irish MSM. Surely this is of importance?

          1. D

            > Already we know it has a 2-4% death rate
            I was replying to the other chap about his quote there, and yup, to calculate any of them you’d need a crystal ball, all there is is the figures out there from NY/Madrid/Milan etc to put a lower bound on what can be true.

            > ignored
            the 69% figure was not mentioned here but the raw numbers were
            https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0423/1134247-covid-19_figures/

          2. Johnnythree

            Sorry. clarification: We already know it has a 2-4% death rate in Ireland at this time,based on the figures we have, with a lag, historical data influence and faith in figures being presented as correct!. Yesterdays rate was 4.7% to date but we must remember that our figures are perhaps inflated in two ways:
            1. Our healthcare workers and care homes are affected out of proportion to what they should have been by no strategy around testing or early intervention. As such this drives our % mortality up.
            2. If we are not testing we don’t know prevalence therefore our infection rates are low and mortality is high per infections notified. Lots of countries will have different ways of looking at this (UK death reporting) so its a rough measure. ICU and Deaths are the two figures most people are watching not cases because you will find cases the more you look/ test. I think that has clarified what I meant to say.

          3. Cian

            ‘69% of Irish coronavirus deaths have occurred in (sic) a residential care type facilities’.

            This, on its own, isn’t meaningful unless you can compare it to deaths pre-coronavirus. Last year, what percentage of deaths occurred in people in/from residential care.

            Based on 2018 CSO data, in an average day 79 people died in Ireland. Broken down by age group:
            1 aged between 0-24
            14 aged between 25-64
            14 aged between 65-74
            23 aged between 75-84
            27 aged 85 and over

            Old people die. 63% of the daily deaths are to people 75 and older.

            Who are in residential homes? Old people.
            Who is most susceptible to COVID? Old people.
            Where do you find old people? Residential homes.
            Where are you most likely to see COVID deaths?

            It would be nice to see the actual pre-covid figures for deaths from residential homes before being shocked.

          4. SOQ

            Sorry Cian but I don’t follow your logic. People die from all sorts everywhere all the time yet it is only of relevance to this subset why? Lets ignore the ‘with’ and ‘from’ thing for a minute- 69% of fatalities most likely contacted CoVid-19 while being within a care home setting- is that better?

            That is an absolute failure of duty of care because it was known from the get go that this thing killed old people. I would be very surprised if you do not see a group action taken against the state once this is all over- particularly as the government advised those homes to reopen- it was at best, negligence.

          5. Cian

            If in a normal week 69% of deaths are people that are in/from residential care… and then with Corona virus it is still 69%… then this shouldn’t surprise us.
            If the norm is 50% and now we get 69% then it is the delta that is of interest – that extra 19%. and this is should be looked at.
            If the norm is 80% and now we get 69% – again the delta is of interest – there are 11% fewer than expected dying.
            If the norm is 30% and now we get 69% – that extra 39% is massive and should be examined.

            But unless you know what the normal rate is – the number 69% is meaningless.

          6. SOQ

            That is the argument some of us have been making all along, but it doesn’t just apply to old people- it applies to everyone. As it stands, those people have had CoVid-19 as at least one cause of death and from a statistical point of view, that they were old is irrelevant.

            The rules don’t change because of someone’s age and it is certainly not up to statisticians to be making judgement calls on someone’s life expectancy.

            They pooped up and it cost lives- end of.

    2. Johnnythree

      ‘69% of Irish coronavirus deaths have occurred in a residential care type facility.

      https://combatarena.ie/69-of-irish-coronavirus-deaths/

      I don’t know anything about who is behind this site but I totally agree with what they are saying on this subject. Just imagine how much lower that figure would have been if government had not instructed nursing homes to reopen and had provided proper PPE to staff?’

      SOQ Agree.Its jaw dropping. A lot of work could have been done mostly because it is the one section of society that is not mobile/ socially active.

      1. Cian

        see my comment above addressing the high numbers of old people dying.

        That quote is slightly misleading. The 69% of deaths weren’t all in residential care. The people who died were from a nursing home or residential care setting. i.e. many were transferred to hospital and died there.

  8. newsjustin

    This comments section is depressing. Looks like there’s a cohort of people who simply can’t fathom that a disease exists or it as reported unless they are dying from it themselves.

      1. D

        Well, you didn’t ask me, but:
        I know two who had it that recovered after a positive test and three suspected cases who were refused. I have multiple relatives who died of suspicious pneumonia.

        The age profile of recovery versus suspicious death conforms to the broad trends.

      2. newsjustin

        Yes. I know of 3 people who had it. In my broader community. 2 have died. They are bona-fide dead, they had the most basic of funerals. They were both older people (not very old) and in reasonable, walking around doing every-day stuff, health.

        Why do you ask? Do you not believe people are dying due to COVID 19 Bodger?

          1. Bodger

            But how many? The official death toll mixes people they say who have died from covid among people who they say have passed away with covid. We could both have the virus and not even know it.

          2. newsjustin

            Do you believe COVID 19 has resulted in people dying prematurely Bodger?

            (Also, where’s the Pell article ye were working on?)

          3. Commenter #1

            “We could both have the virus and not even know it.”

            This is the crux of the issue. Some people are carriers/potential spreaders of the virus, and suffer no symptoms. However, some people aren’t so lucky if/when they do contract it. We have a reasonable idea of how it can spread between people, and how easily. As such, overreacting in how we address its spread is better than the alternative.

            But basing your skepticism on how many people you know have had it/died from it is laughable. I know 0 people who have AIDS. Doesn’t mean I don’t believe it’s deadly, prevalent, and relatively easily caught in certain circumstances. However, I do know people (2 acquaintances, 1 personally) who have contracted Covid 19; 1 has died, the other 2 made it through but suffered a lot by their accounts.

          4. Bodger

            My point was we could both have it and not know it AND then we die from another cause BUT because we will also test positive for covid in a post mortem that’s what goes on our death cert. Wouldn’t that distort the data never mind reality?

            On the people I know who have it, we have thousands pf people visiting this site and to date we have Brother Barnabas (thankfully recovered) and the friend of a friend’s father-in law in Australia (sadly passed away).

          5. Commenter #1

            I just want to be sure I have this straight. Bodger doesn’t know anyone who has contracted Covid 19, and as such is skeptical about how prevalent it is. However, it is so prevalent among people currently dropping dead from other causes , often prematurely, that it is skewing the figures and making it look like a much more dangerous virus than it actually is.

            Covid 19 is at the same time not at all prevalent and really prevalent. And it’s really prevalent among people dropping dead, but it’s not making them drop dead.

            Interesting hypothesis.

            Edited to add: You can add the three people known to me who have contracted it (1 passed away, 2 survived) to your little running tally if you want.

          6. Nigel

            No it won’t distort the data, it will actually provide the data for trained epidiomologists to process and collate later when we will get an actual accurate picture of the mortality rate and rates of infection. You don’t know anyone who has it because it’s likely the lockdown is being, let’s say, at least here, moderately succesful.

          7. Bodger

            If I have tested positive for covid and I die from a heart attack what goes on the death cert?

          8. Cian

            “Acute myocardial infarction” would probably go on your death cert.

            If you were COVID-positive at time of death it would also be reported to the HPSC and be counted in the daily COVID death toll.

          9. Commenter #1

            I don’t know. What I do know is that it appears that we have something which is causing many more people in care homes, for example, to die. It appears that more people are dying than in previous years; one explanation is Covid 19. Any other explanation is unclear to me at least.

          10. Bodger

            If a person in a nursing home dies from pneumonia and on further examination tests positive for coronavirus (although she may not even have been aware she had it) her death will be listed as a COVID death. That would skew the figures, no?

          11. Commenter #1

            “Conceivably a murder victim could be among the daily COVID death toll.”

            I get it; you think the way Covid 19 deaths are being counted are potentially overstating its impact. But isn’t it weird that people are dying of something worldwide, at the same time that we are identifying a lot of cases of this new, very contagious virus?

            How strange! But again, more fool me for pissing away so much of my Friday on this.

            Edited to add: Are lots more people dying in care homes where there are coronavirus outbreaks, or not? I get you think the figures might be skewed, but are you saying this is pure coincidence?

          12. Covid V

            If a person in a nursing home dies from pneumonia and on further examination tests positive for coronavirus (although she may not even have been aware she had it) her death will be listed as a COVID death. That would skew the figures, no?

            Did someone say figures
            well I say numbers; here I go

            Posting an outcome into the incorrect category would serve to inflate one value, and under value another; in this case registering a death, which is ok in itself, as the total number is not imposed upon; but the cause of death is material
            Consider this, Deaths by Suicide v Deaths by Road Accidents
            Both are important statistics on their own merit, especially for Strategic Planning, Budgets, Resource Allocation and of course National Implementation Plans, ie: Road Safety Campaigns and Mental Health Services could be decided on faulty historic information.

            In Bodger’s example; the total number being attributed to deaths caused by Covid-192- is being *artificially enhanced
            Pheonix Magazine might call it an input error
            Or Anglo Irish Bankers window dressing

            It is therefore unreliable, and paints an incorrect picture
            What this Accountant will call – a technically false value
            Typically; I am not disputing the death occurred but the category it is recorded under
            Something Garda Cost Accountants told the PAC not too long ago – murder being posted into the manslaughter column in PULSE
            Breath-tests v Breathalyser kits
            OOpps

            So, back to the matter we’re really talking about
            A number, any number, that is false, is Inaccurate reporting, and always results in faulty decisions and misleading the user of the information, unless it is caught and corrected
            Or posted as an amendment after the report has been published
            Like events after year end sorta stuff

            Do ye want me to go into Inaccurate Reporting and being mislead by numbers in statements?

            Anglo, FAI, Tracker Mortgages, Cervical Smear Tests, Garda Penalty Points

            I would suggest correct cause of death – even its its just the one, is material enough to demand absolute certainty before sign off and publishing, wouldn’t you?

            ara’ tis a Friday, and ye’ve had enough of eejits taking ye all for suckers about what numbers mean for another week

            I’m off to download Covid Seasons 1 – 18 and have a bubble bath


            * many reasons for this to happen, convenience, simple error, mostly in fairness;

            or deliberate
            like -“I picked it out of my arse”
            or not telling your Board what your real salary and pension package is.

          13. Nigel

            There have been recent reports that people infected with mild symptoms have been dying unexpectedly of blood clots. There’s as much chance that deaths are being undercounted as overcounted.

          14. newsjustin

            No one is being counted as a COVID 19 victim if they’ve dropped dead of a heart attack, been knocked down by a bus or died of a stroke Bodger.

            People recorded, for the purposes of trying to manage this public health emergency, as dying from COVID 19 are those dying with a diagnosis and suffering the dramatic symptoms of the disease…especially in older people….most notably bilateral interstitial pneumonia.

            Assigning deaths to e.g. cancer is done every day. Interestingly, when it comes down to it, it’s often the complications of cancer and cancer treatment that, eventually causes people to die. So a patient with metastatic liver cancer might end up severely malnourished, with an infection due to complications from surgery and adhesions in their intestines from surgery. It is not a straightforward thing, but no one doubts that liver cancer killed them prematurely.

            Ultimately, I suspect your determination to cast doubt on the number of deaths COVID 19 is causing is not an attempt at clarification, but rather, an attempt to proclaim that COVID 19 isn’t all that bad and anyway [insert wacky conspiracy theory here].

            PS – The Pell article?

  9. Zaccone

    The reopening can’t come soon enough. Every study thats come out this month is showing a case fatality rate of 0.3-0.5% – not miles off the seasonal flu’s 0.1%.

    The full lockdown was a necessary step in mid-March when we didn’t have much data on the virus (and when we needed time to expand ICU/hospital capacity) but now that we know the virus is far less lethal than previously thought, and that it effectively isn’t killing under 40s at all, its time to loosen things up.

    1. D

      > it effectively isn’t killing under 40s at all
      ah it is yeah
      but more at the 0.1% rate than the much higher numbers for the old and sick, and also for some reason the poor.

    2. Formerly known as @ireland.com

      To paraphrase your statements: The death rate is low because of the lockdown, therefore we can end the lockdown.

      Australia has 79 deaths, 25 million people, loads of testing – about 1 positive per 5,000 tests this week, we ain’t rushing to open things up. Hopefully, we can eradicate it, or come very close to, then open up slowly. Ireland moved too slow. Dr. Michael Ryan said “don’t be afraid to make mistakes” but Ireland was afraid.

      1. sidhe

        Australia’s success at containing the virus has been remarkable. It will certainly be interesting to look at the data from countries like Australia vs. Italy, for example and see what emerges.

        1. Cian

          How are other southern hemisphere countries doing?

          in Australia the “normal” flu season is June to Sept. I wonder if that is related to their success?

    3. Zaccone

      The death rate for under 40s is even lower than 0.1% – https://i.insider.com/5e72a2d8c485404ab2528275?width=1136&format=jpeg

      Sweden has no mandatory full economic lockdown and has a death rate directly comparable to us. Significantly lower than locked down countries such as France, Italy, Spain, the UK, the Netherlands, Belgium… And at no point in time have either their ICUs, or hospitals, been full to capacity.

      Australia’s lockdown has been less severe than ours – schools are still open, construction still running, more businesses open than here etc. So their sucess is not a good case to use to defend our lockdown measures at all – if anything its proof that we could have done far less and still succeeded.

      Thats pretty undeniable proof the lockdown is a massive overreaction that should be rescinded as soon as possible.

      1. Cian

        Sweden has a death rate of 213/million; Ireland is 161/million.

        Sweden has also banned gatherings of more than 50 people. The government has “recommended” that people: work from home; avoid unnecessary travel within the country; engage in social distancing; and for people above 70 to stay at home, as much as possible. It isn’t mandatory….but the majority of people are following the advice.

      2. D

        look at new york and do yer chart again there for the under 40s

        the only thing that is undeniable is the problem has not fully arrived in Sweden, but they want to get their numbers up to match the worst infections in Europe, so leave them at it. Their neighbours are being a bit more sensible.

        Australia being sensible and quarantining arrivals, success so far!

        Be a few months yet before accurate numbers emerge, so be patient.

      3. Zaccone

        @Cian as of today Sweden’s death rate is 198/million, Ireland’s is 164. Thats not exactly a huge difference. Particularly considering the increase in suicides we’re going to see here as a result of the economic collapse. And the increase in deaths of despair. And the deaths due to a decrease in healthcare funding moving forward. And it remains to be seen if Ireland’s deaths catch up anyway once we eventually (as we have to) open up.

        And yes Sweden absolutely has implemented some common sense measures. But again the point is many, many countries with more severe economic lockdowns have much higher death rates per million than Sweden. And Sweden, despite its more relaxed measures, has not hit capacity in ICUs or hospitals – both points are pretty undeniable evidence that the lockdown unnecessary.

        @D the death rate for under 40s in NY is 0.4%. And almost all of those who’ve died have had comorbidities – obesity, diabetes and high blood pressure being by far the most common (and impactful on mortality). And NYC has a bad combination of one of the highest population densities on the planet, huge numbers of very poor people, very high obesity rates, and the American health service. So will obviously be hit harder than almost anywhere else.

        @mexican yes, schools are mostly still open, as your link shows – it does vary by state, but they’re a hell of a lot more open than any school in Ireland. Construction is still running. Far more businesses are open. My point is their restrictions are much less severe than ours, so they’re an extremely bad country for “Formerly known as @ireland.com ” to use to justify our draconian measures.

        1. D

          > So will obviously be hit harder than almost anywhere else.
          it obviously won’t. Start picking poor cities. Asthma also considered a comorbidity FYI.

          1. Johnnythree

            Good points above from both D and Zaccone.
            I still think Sweden will get criticism now for deaths etc. But with our death rate we may be tracking them closer than we would like. I would imagine that this approach in Sweden will be interesting to watch. If they successfully come through this AND go through second and subsequent waves theirs deaths may be less then. Its still up for discussion – I’m not sure I think Sweden is acting illogically though, the deaths are high but maybe over time, if they are playing a long game then they might level out to be average. Remember, there will always be big political pressure through Govt and media here to suppress any narrative that our deaths are higher than they should be and that we did the ‘wrong’ thing.

        2. Cian

          If you compare Sweden (213/million) to her peers you get a different story:
          Finland: 32/million
          Norway: 37/million
          Denmark: 70/million

          1. Nigel

            Something worth considering – I don’t think rates of testing and ways of counting deaths are the same across different countries which makes comparing rates across countries problematic. It’s why a lot of this ‘one country is doing better than than this other country’ is kind of fundamentally going to be wrong.

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