78 thoughts on “Thursday’s Papers

  1. Formerly known as @ireland.com

    Bojonaro – how long before the currency is changed to the ruble?

    1. Charger Salmons

      I was hoping Bodger might mark the occasion with something special but just in case he’s already on the turps celebrating Happy Boris Day those good folk at Guido Fawkes have reminded everyone that today is the first anniversary of Johnson becoming leader of the Conservative Party.
      Since then he’s sent Magic Grandpa packing, delivered Brexit and won a stonking 80-seat majority in a general election.

      https://order-order.com/2020/07/23/happy-boris-day/

      Marvellous stuff.

  2. f_lawless

    Worth a read and relevant to Ireland – an article by Prof. Carl Heneghan,director of Oxford’s Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, who has previously made some significant contributions to the unfolding Covid narrative in the UK. (eg. the overcounting of Covid deaths in England by the PHE).

    According to Heneghan, due to known problems with the accuracy of the testing kits, there will always be a certain percentage of test results that will be false positives. New positive cases would still continue to be diagnosed even in the scenario were the virus is no longer actually active among the population

    Continuing on down the road of “test, test, test” may mean the virus will never disappear.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-many-covid-diagnoses-are-false-positives-

      1. f_lawless

        Can you explain a bit more about your calculation. I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make or what your figures are based on. From what I can see, ‘Active cases’ in Ireland are officially at ‘701’ as of today but it’s unclear how many tests were made in total during the period the 701 figure built up. What percentage is it of the total cases carried out? I’m not sure either how one moves from being classed as an “active case” to not active. Are they retested periodically?

        But anyway is it relevant to the hypothetical future scenario posed in the article where the virus is no longer active but a number of false positive cases continue to appear – the amount of which depending on the number of tests being made?

        1. bisted

          …Oxford Professor – check
          Evidence-based -check
          Corvid deaths – check
          Over-counting – check
          Spectator link – send

        2. SOQ

          In NI, Scotland and Wages, they only record CoVid-19 as a factor if the deceased was tested within the previous three weeks so I expect they just count three weeks forward for the active cases?

          1. bisted

            …the morning shift has arrived…nice slip there on Wales…reminds me of that song:

            …the Welsh have their speech
            Her poets are paid about tenpence a week
            Provided no harsh word on England they speak
            oh dear, what a price for devotion…

        3. Cian

          Sorry, I was using UK numbers (as it was a UK article).
          Yesterday they had 560 positive results. The 70 false positives was an estimate based on the number of tests yesterday with at a specificity of 99.9%.

          In Ireland there have been 579,088 tests producing 25,819 positives. Again, at 99.9% this suggests that there were 580 false positives. Which still leaves 25,000 correct positives.

          1. John

            Your assumptions are based on a randomised sample,
            Can you adjust your calculations to account for the biasing of the people who where tested towards people showing symptoms and contacts of same.
            It would also be useful to analyse the proportion of the sample that were a genuine random sample e.g. people who are requesting tests without symptoms or contacts or testing by employers who require all employees to be tested etc.
            580 false positives seems excessive

          2. Cian

            This is all finger in the air – since we don’t know with the specificity is.

            But if we use the numbers for the article (99.9%) I’m suggesting that it would reduce the Irish figures by less than 2.5% – so it is not significant.

    1. John

      False positives and false negatives are always an issue with testing, you dont have to look any further than the cervical smear testing for that.
      The big assumption that the article is making though is that you are randomly testing the population. In Ireland we are mostly testing people with symptoms or people who have had a contact with a confirmed case. While this does not have any impact on the absolute accuracy of the test it does completely skew your ability to determine what the accuracy of the test is, as you are not working from a randomised sample, your sample is skewed towards people who actually have the virus.

    1. Andy Pipkin

      In all fairness the man is not well in the numbskull department, I think most of staff have left.
      You can be a billionaire but it counts for nothing if you’ve nobody at the controls!!

      1. scottser

        it’s an interesting debate; how many people would forego their stigma about mental health to vote kanye to be president?
        obviously you want a president to be stable, rational and empathetic, and god knows there have been a few psychopaths in that role in the last while. I guess the difference is that voters in the states voted for someone who invariably turned out to be something else but with kanye you know you’re going to get a terrible president from the off.

        1. Cian

          “that voters in the states voted for someone who invariably turned out to be something else ”
          Which president is this aimed at?

          1. Nigel

            Remember when they voted for Reagan but the the Scooby Gang pulled off his mask and it turned out to be Old Man Marsden, the gardener, trying to scare everyone out of the White House because they kept stepping on his petunias?

          2. Cian

            Hmmm
            Nixon and Clinton were both re-elected as president. So the voters knew after 4 years what they were dealing with… and choose to keep them.

            Granted. Bush Sr. didn’t get a second term.

    2. Johnny Green

      Poor Kanye.Biblical.
      “On Good Friday, the virus took the life of Sister Mary Luiza Wawrzyniak, 99. By the end of the month, eleven other sisters had passed; seventeen more were infected but recovered, according to Sr. Noel Marie Gabriel, the director of clinical health services for Our Lady of Hope Province. A thirteenth sister, despite an initial recovery, passed away in June.”
      https://time.com/5869948/13-nuns-felician-sisters-die-coronavirus-michigan/

  3. italia'90

    That’s a massive torpedo to the biased narrative
    on the good ship Covid 19.
    Sweden just released their
    excess death total for Jan-July 2020
    Yes it is a bit higher than the previous 6 year average
    BUT
    it’s lower than the average from 1990 – 2012
    No Lockdown
    No destroyed economy
    They admitted early that they made some mistakes in not protecting the vulnerable.
    And a reported 10% to 14% usage of masks throughout the pandemic

    In other news, Covid has apparently almost cured the flu in South America too!

      1. italia'90

        Feic off ya feen!
        I’ve just got the better of a 3 day champagne induced hangover
        Let me have one more can… please boss?

    1. Cian

      Do you have a link to that?
      The Economist has a graph for Sweden that shows they had negative excess deaths (~-100 per week) for the first 10 weeks of the year, followed by a big spike of +800 in mid April.. which has dropped down toward 0.

      https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries

      Germany and Denmark are strange – they have huge negative excess deaths trough for the first 10 weeks followed by the same scale peak – it looks like the numbers who didn’t die in Jan Feb dies in April May.

  4. Gabby

    The Daily Star as usual gets down to basics. Forget Russia, China, Kashmir, Afghanistan and Brexit.

  5. Charger Salmons

    You know how people laughed when details emerged of the government’s staycation scheme of vouchers to boost the hospitality and tourist industry because it wouldn’t start until September when all the kids are back at school ?
    It gets even better.According to the Indo it won’t start till October and only run to April.
    Even as we speak thousands of families are planning getaways at the Roscommon Travelodge for the mid-term break at the end of October.
    And others are looking forward to a much-needed winter break on the Costa del Alliteration.
    Glamping in a gale in Galway.
    Sun-bathing in a snowstorm in Sligo.
    Or Christ it’s cold to be caravanning in Connemara.
    The ineptitude of this new government is unfolding at an alarming pace.

    1. Pip

      I can’t get over the Father Ted-ness of the Green List.
      It has given me hours of amusement.

      1. Charger Salmons

        My chums on the mainland have had a giggle at Greenland.
        And of course the only way to get to Monaco is via a country not on the green list unless you go by helicopter.
        You would think someone at the highest level of government would have suggested the green list names would be open to some ridicule.
        Mehole needs a Dom.

          1. Charger Salmons

            That joke would work if Iceland was on the green list of 15 countries.
            A reminder once again – Greenland is not Iceland.
            Doh !

          2. bisted

            …doh…my knowledge of geography is as bad as my knowledge of footie…one cold, remote island with a tiny population is easily confused with another in my eagerness to hit the back of the net…

          3. Charger Salmons

            Never mind, there’s always next time.
            As England supporters are used to saying by now…

    2. GiggidyGoo

      FG having a right old laugh at FFs expense. Send out the village idiot, Micheal Martin, with all sorts of idiotic schemes, put him in front of the cameras and watch him burn. In the meantime, Varadkar hones his skills as the alternative ‘common sense’ fellow.

      I’ll say one thing for FG – they sure do know how to destroy smaller ‘friendly’ parties.

      It can’t go on like this for FF. Someone has to make a stand within that party and there needs to be a rout. The BOGOF, yellow pack, Taoiseach is a disgrace to the party – and all just to have the title ‘Taoiseach’ for a while.

      1. Charger Salmons

        I’ve never used a Travelodge so I couldn’t tell you.
        But I occasionally bed down at a Premier Inn at Gatwick North before an early flight.
        Very comfortable bed, decent full English WITH beans and about 50 sovs a night.
        Sorted.

        1. GiggidyGoo

          You must have booked well in advance. Premier Inns are usually very comfortable. Stayed in one in Ayr a few years ago. I can’t say the same about UK Travelodges however. Stayed in one in London and another in Edinburgh, and both were stinking dirty.

          1. Charger Salmons

            Yup.
            I have two upcoming Gatwick North bookings made a couple of months ago where I paid £36 a night.
            Great value in Dubai as well.
            Some excellent flight bargains out of LGW for the intrepid traveller.

    3. Vanessanelle

      The ineptitude of this new government is unfolding at an alarming pace

      Sorry Charage
      The Fianna Fail wing of this Government most definitely
      In fact I’d go further than the politeness of ineptitude

      His MM has finally showed his true abilities to be leader
      Less than nothing
      I’d do a better job meself

      The man is completely lacking in any ability or skill to Govern
      Or make decisions that are capable of holding up – in any weather
      He’s got this far from hanging onto the coattails of former eFFers such as Cowan the Big, Lenihan Jnr, Hanifan and Ahern (the Dermot one)
      And of course Harney who took over from him in Health, and she was capable of generating so much shade – not even a nettle would grow there

      Prior to 2011 he was sitting comfortably at the back of the FF bus letting Ahern (the Bertie one) Cowen, O’Donoghue and Lenihan Jnr take the full impact of the crash that all but wrote them off
      He got a ‘hospital pass’ till 2016, and from then he hid under the Confidence & Supply agreement – knowing full well Fianna Fail still weren’t in a fit State to get anywhere at National level
      And after the Frances Fitz blustering and blowharding – led by Jim O’Callaghan btw
      He retreated under Brexit

      And he flip flopped on Repeal

      He has one legislative win to his name, one
      The smoking ban
      Even Mary Harney has a better record in the Dáil

      Now that he is steering the ship, he has been found out
      The writing on the wall was his refusal to consider a Unity Poll
      But his ultimate collapse and the death penalty for Fianna Fail was his refusal to parley with Sinn Fein

      Watch the stray FF TDs and also rans scoot over to the Sinn Fein tickets next time round
      While his handful of loyalists try and find room for themselves with the Blueshirts

      If he was a leader of any merit
      He’d have campaigned on a Peoples Assembly, and a Unity Poll, and cleared the way for a Republican Government
      Where in he absolutely would have had to assemble the best of the best available to sit around the Cabinet with him

      His inferiority Complex is making the decisions
      We’re f::ked lads

      1. Charger Salmons

        We agree.
        I’ve met him a couple of times.
        Uninspiring doesn’t do him justice.
        He’s got that BMW 3 series- driving travelling rep for a cleaning products firm bang off him.

        1. Vanessanelle

          A History teacher on a career break
          He worked as Minister for Health, Minister for Ed, Minister for Foreign Affairs and Minister for Enterprise Trade & Employment, and then Taoiseach

          Some going for a lad that might have managed to reach Deputy Principal by now had he stayed in Pres

          Just shows how far mediocre can go in Irish Politics

  6. SOQ

    This is a Twitter thread by Francis Hoar- Barrister, specialist in election/public, commercial & employment law in the UK highlighting the legal risk of shop keepers demanding the compulsory wearing of masks by people with disabilities. I expect the same will arise here.

    “Any person refusing a service or to sell a product to a disabled person by reason of their disability is liable to that person unless they have a statutory defence.

    That they haven’t told you is unlikely to be a defence. By the nature of their disability, some with depression (etc) will be reluctant to tell you about it. Indeed, being asked is in itself likely to exacerbate their symptoms.

    The only way a shop can avoid the risk of many expensive law suits is to order its staff not in any circumstances to ask why a person is not wearing a mask and not to bar entry if they aren’t.”

    https://threader.app/thread/1285491835415285761

    1. scottser

      it’s already been mentioned, although not discussed to the extent it should be, that people with a hearing problem might need to lip read, so when staff wear masks it places that customer in a position of unnecessary difficulty.
      the security aspect of everyone wearing face coverings is another obvious issue that conveniently doesn’t get discussed.

      1. SOQ

        I think that is the reason face visors are now accepted on public transport. The core point here is that some medical information is confidential and shops do not have the right to inquire about such.

    2. Cian

      The regulation for wearing masks on public transport is interesting.
      You must wear a mask unless you have a reasonable excuse. The excuses are quite broad but the onus is on the passenger to establish the reasonable excuse.

      Reasonable excuse
      6. Without prejudice to the generality of what constitutes reasonable excuse for the purposes of Regulation 5(1), a person has reasonable excuse if –
      (a) the person cannot put on, wear or remove a face covering –
      (i) because of any physical or mental illness, impairment, or disability, or
      (ii) without severe distress,
      (b) the person needs to communicate with a person who has difficulties communicating (in relation to speech, language or otherwise),
      (c) the person removes the face covering to provide emergency assistance or to provide care or assistance to a vulnerable person,
      (d) the person removes the face covering to avoid harm or injury, or the risk of harm or injury,
      (e) the person removes the face covering in order to, and only for the time required to, take medication.

      and then if someone isn’t wearing a mask:

      Powers of relevant person
      7. (1) Where a relevant person reasonably believes that a person travelling by public transport vehicle (in this Regulation referred to as a “passenger”) is not wearing a face covering in accordance with Regulation 5, he or she may do any of the following:
      (a) request the passenger to wear a face covering;
      (b) refuse the passenger entry to a public transport vehicle;
      (c) request the passenger to alight from a public transport vehicle.
      (2) Before exercising a power under paragraph (1) in respect of a passenger, a relevant person shall give the passenger an opportunity to provide reasonable excuse and may request the passenger to provide such information as the relevant person considers necessary to determine whether or not the passenger has reasonable excuse.
      (3) Notwithstanding paragraph (2), the onus shall be on a passenger to establish, to the satisfaction of the relevant person, that he or she has reasonable excuse

      (my emphasis)

      1. SOQ

        Declaring a mental illness is not something someone should have to do in a public place and besides- how can a guard prove otherwise? And what qualifies a non medical inspector to determine what is or is not an acceptable condition?

        Oh and careful of your wording there- the reference is to face coverings, not just masks. Visors are face coverings and they are acceptable too.

        1. Nigel

          This would be less of an issue if there wasn’t so much anti-mask agitation and stupidity. If people weren’t grandstanding about their rights to not hide behind cowardly masks or whatever, then anyone without a mask could be left alone on the assumption that they have a good reason.

          1. Nigel

            Yes. That wearing a mask contributes to keeping the spread of the virus. You are bravely fighting back against this tyrannical narrative, remember?

        2. Cian

          @SOQ Why not?
          If you want to park in a Disabled parking space you need to declare your disability – by displaying a badge.
          If you want to get on a bus without wearing a mask face covering – you need to declare your reason. Not a detailed medical reasons – but be willing to say “I can’t wear any face coverings for genuine medical reasons”.

          Note: forgetting you mask isn’t a genuine medical reason. Not wanting to wear a mask isn’t a genuine medical reason. Being a selfish bottomhole isn’t a genuine medical reason.

          1. SOQ

            Actually, as above- forgetting your face covering can be a genuine reason with certain medical conditions. As for the exemption system- like the UK that is fine if it was up and running first but it is not- neither country has implemented such.

            Will a guard or other inspector accept the statement “I cannot wear a face covering for genuine medical reasons?” I doubt it.

            Now if it gets to the point where a disabled person cannot travel or go into a shop then you can be certain that legal action will be taken because as it stands, it is bad law.

          2. Cian

            Forgetting you mask is not a genuine medical reason. Get off the bus.
            Someone may have a medical condition that means they forget their mask. Stay on the bus.

            These are two different things.

          3. SOQ

            From the Francis Hoar link above-

            “It is also a symptom of depression, dementia and other conditions that sufferers are disorganised and forgetful, meaning they’d be likely to forget any medical certificate.”

  7. GiggidyGoo

    We have had a number of homeless people’s deaths this past week. Not the headlines that we had a couple of years ago. Have we become immune to them now?

  8. Johnny

    leading astrologist Rand Paul.

    “The people we are lauding are actually making catastrophic decisions,” he said.

    “I think Gov. Cuomo should be impeached … for the disastrous decision he made to send patients with coronavirus back to nursing homes. … Virtually half his people who died were in nursing homes,”

    ..lockdowns “killed the economy but didn’t do any good for trying to contain the virus.”

    https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/508581-rand-paul-calls-for-cuomo-to-be-impeached-over-coronavirus-response

    1. Pat Mustard

      What successful treatment ? There is 56,000 dead people in just 5 months. One of the worst excess death figures in the world.

  9. Joe F

    Here you go again clown man, picking out positive things about your beloved Disunited Kingdom. As I said before you should be press secretary for Bozo, ignore all the chaos around you old boy, and carry on regardless. What about the mortality rate?? UK 4th highest, San Marino & Andorra (combined death 94) 2 of the countries above them. That’s marvelous old boy As I said our lads aren’t up to much,but as for Bozo and Trump…..
    Nice picture of Bozo on the front page of the Times today by the way old boy?
    Don’t see any comments of yours about that here, unlike your comments when he was in a photo shoot with people he was in hospital with.
    Oh yeah, Bozo really has that human touch old boy.

  10. Johnny Green

    this is real,he’s in a hole in Fla of his own making with no way out,lose Fla it’s all over.

    …In the race for the White House, former Vice President Joe Biden opens up a big lead over President Trump. Voters back Biden 51 – 38 percent over Trump. In an April 22nd poll, it was close with Biden at 46 percent and Trump at 42 percent….

    https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3668

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