Except those last few times.
This afternoon.
The final poll of polls as America goes to the, er, polls.
The tally puts Democrat candidate Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 8.1 percentage points.
A Donald Trump victory would be the “biggest polling miss of the 21st century“, according to one leading US bookmaker.
Hmm.
Meanwhile…
Media cheats again-so the story is Dixville Notch voted 5-0 for Biden, first unanimous vote since 1972. Then Mark Steyn notes next town, Millsfield, voted 16 to 5 Trump over Biden. combined vote 26-10.headline could have been “Trump 60% lead in early New Hampshire voting”.
— Newt Gingrich (@newtgingrich) November 3, 2020
It has begun.
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It ain’t over till the Great Pumpkin has spoken.
The winner of this election was most likely decided 20 years ago after dinner in some billionaire drawing room over cigars, ala Trading Places (1983). The idea that it is decided by people voting is funny.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wjkdynBFHuQ
If voting was irrelevant, the Republicans wouldn’t work so hard to suppress it.
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1323643837869424646?s=20
4 more years boys and girls.
That twitter account has a final prediction of a Biden win.
4.9% margin of error on those wick polls. They are literally of zero value.
I like Donald Trump I hope he wins
Newt Gingrich?
LOL. A real voice for absolutely nothing of any note.
https://unlimitedhangout.com/2020/09/investigative-reports/bipartisan-washington-insiders-reveal-their-plan-for-chaos-if-trump-wins-the-election/
Laying the groundwork for a manufactured chaos post-election?
If Trump wins, manufacturing chaos will be a wildly redundant activity.
Regardless of who wins, it seems as though certain powerful factions from within the US establishment see it as being in their interests if martial law were to be imposed there post-election
That’s ominously vague, especially if you’re basing it on a gamed-out scenario unlikely to come to pass.
Douglas Murray makes some interesting predictions on what will happen. That neither side is going to concede defeat and that the US could be on the brink of civil war.
https://youtu.be/Nmbd60apsfQ?t=3629
In fairness, the Republicans aren’t shy about openly working to cement minority rule and completely delegitimise the Democratic Party and their voters as a political force. What’d be weird is if the Democrats actually stood up for themselves.
Just so you know, since the myth is being repeated here, the national polls (aka the curb you are showing for this year) four years ago were right on the money (Clinton by 2-3).
Trump won because the state polls’ margin of error all missed a couple points in his direction and he won the Electoral College by a few thousand votes in a couple of critical states.
It came off as a big shock but it wasn’t the massive polling error people like to say it was.
That’s funny because I remember watching CNN on election night and they were giving Clinton a 99% chance of winning based on their expert polling.
Fact is Brexit, Boris and Trump has proved polling to be an inexact science.
I always find it amazing how many media outlets commission polling that manages to exactly match their political standpoint.
But Trump scraped in by a whisker, so 99 per cent wasn’t that far ahead off.
…ah Nigel…giveover…your man is home and hosed…Trump didn’t win anything…crooked Hillary managed to snatch defeat from the huge jaws of victory…as one of your heros once said…rejoice!
ah blisted, give over, your primary concern is that whoever wins Putin doesn’t get inconvenienced.
…polling is a science though…not exact, that’s why they have a calculable margin of error…the closest they have to a provably accurate poll is an exit poll…
manipulating or orchestrating poll results that match your own desired outcome isn’t necessarily a good strategy. if anything, polls predicting brexit defeat were counterproductive. our pal dom spent every waking hour in the 2 weeks leading up to the Brexit referendum on the phone to media heads, off-the-record conceding defeat, but he knew exactly what he was doing and the effect it would have. remainers stayed at home, safe in the knowledge that their vote wasnt needed.
and, by the way, charger – farage didnt deliver brexit; cummings did. and farage acknowledges that.
I didn’t say Farage delivered Brexit.
But with UKIP he single-handedly propelled it to the stage where it became a political possibility.
And with the Brexit Party he ensured it became a probability through the election of Boris as Tory leader.
However I agree entirely that without Cummings and the decision to side-line Farage at the crucial stage it would never have happened.
yes with you there
One unknown factor I did read about was to do with CoVid-19.
That Biden is promising a nation wide lockdown and that even his rallies were socially distanced and masked while Trump’s were everyone crowded together and no masks as normal.
Two very stark impressions of no hope and hope- very base level appeal- but the impact not to be underestimated either.
Or two very stark impressions of knowledge and ignorance.
It’s not about right and wrong Nigel- just what resonates with the voters- and if Trump can tap into people’s frustrations about CoVid restrictions- he’will walk it.
This is exactly what Farage is planning to do.
I think Biden may have tapped in to the horror and revulsion at Trump’s handling of the pandemic, and Trump’s superspreader rallies only serve to reinforce it. Farage may be making the same play as Trump but of course he’s angling primarily for US billionaire funding rather than electoral success
Farage, whose parties have never had an MP elected.
But UKIP’s success in the European elections and growing support in the UK forced Cameron’s hand in agreeing to a referendum.
Farage’s second re-incarnation the Brexit Party proved equally influential and it was only by volunteering not to stand candidates in pro-Leave Tory seats in the 2019 Farage gifted Boris his big win.
The Tories’ biggest mistake this year was not rewarding Farage with a peerage with which he would have politely shuffled off the stage.
Now he’s set for a third return to the limelight with Reform UK.
Nigel Farage achieved far more without winning a seat in Parliament than any lowly backbencher could ever do.
By a country mile the most successful British politician of his generation.
I’d give that accolade to johnson, but, in time (<10 years), we'll be saying sturgeon
Interestingly a British expat has placed a record $5million bet on a Trump win based on conversations he has had with Trump Camp insiders.
Maybe they know something the rest of the pollsters don’t …
http://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13090267/mystery-brit-gambler-bets-5million-trump-election-victory/
Is it his bottylicker Farage?
Dixville Hotch, in New Hampshire with a population of 12 has declared 5-0 Biden. It seemed they favoured the traditional paper ballot in that constituency. The population of the USA is @ 330 Million – it seems 80 million had already registered their vote via US mail last week – which it seems was used majorly by Biden supporters, today/tonight the rest of voting is done electronically- which could/is susceptible to manipulation/hacking. Shayna is hoping for a Biden win. The World is full of eejits, no-one needs one with nuclear codes.
Did you have a nice birthday Shayna? I saw you mention your birthday last week in the comments. Happy belated birthday, by the way ;)
Millie, thank you – I did have a delightful birthday – two cousins (sisters) drove up to Belfast – kinda against all the rules etc.. – but who’ll find out? I made a brunch of, guacomole on toasted sourdough toasted bread, with loosely scrambled eggs atop with a side of roasted cherry tomatoes on the the vine, lying on a bed of rocket There was a sprinkling of balsamic dressing and shaved Parmasan. To be fair, I kinda stole/adapted this recipe from Portugal. It’s v. nice! (Oh, lots of cracked black pepper)
Just for the record, the two cousins are my next of kin. The PSNI aren’t doing spot checks, to find out travelling distances. Na Gardaí, on the other hand are flat out.
Nom-nom :)