From top: Sinn Fein’s Michelle O’Neill (centre) and party leader Mary Lou McDonald (right) speak at the Meadow Bank election count centre in Magherafelt, Northern Ireland on Saturday night; Derek Mooney
For about forty years, from the early 1930s up to the early 1970s, many weighty academic tomes on Karl Marx and on Charles Darwin, attempted to analysis how and why Marx decided to ask the father of the Theory of Evolution if he would accept Marx dedicating one of the volumes of Das Kapital, to him – and why Darwin politely, but firmly, declined the request?
It was a conundrum which intrigued and perplexed many fine scholars from both the left and right. Each side offering complex and multi-layered interpretations about each man’s motivations.
Was Marx just seeking Darwin’s approval – it is certain that Marx admired Darwin’s work – or was he attempting to draw parallels between his and Darwin’s theories and perhaps win the great man over to his arguments? Was Darwin’s refusal driven by a deep wariness of Marx’s politics and the fear of being associated with them.
For decades noted academics debated and dissected the contents of a letter from Darwin, found in the Marx family papers, and dated 13th October 1880. Darwin opened by extending his thanks for the “kind letter & the Enclosure” and after some pleasantries firmly rejects the request stating:
“I shd (sic) prefer the Part or Volume not to be dedicated to me” as … [it has] “always been my object to avoid writing on religion, & I have confined myself to science.”
In all that discussion and analysis it seems that no one thought to find the original letter from Marx requesting Darwin’s approval for a dedication. The story of Marx and Darwin was so accepted, so instilled and embedded in the minds of the experts that no one thought to question it.
But, as Francis Wheen points out in his 1999 biography of Marx, not until the early 1970s did it occur to anyone to go in search of it. It took a young graduate student at the University of California Margaret Fay to wonder where the original letter from Marx was. And why was Darwin citing an aversion to writing about religion to refuse a dedication of a volume on economic theory?
Fay soon discovered that the whole story was untrue.
The Oct 13th letter from Darwin was not addressed to Karl Marx, it was meant for a Mr Edward Aveling.. Aveling was seeking Darwin’s dedication for his slim guide to the theory of evolution, entitled: The Students’ Darwin.
The Marx connection only came about much later when Aveling became the paramour of Marx’s daughter, Eleanor. The letter ended up in Marx’s archive in the late 1890s as Aveling was assisting Eleanor compile her father’s papers and writings, and his letter from Darwin was included along with various articles Aveling had written about the two men.
It is surprisingly easy for attractive and intriguing tales to go from being simply unchallenged, to becoming accepted and incontrovertible matters of “fact”. It does not require bad faith or deliberate misdirection, just the desire to imagine that the things you wish were true, really were true.
I detect some early hints of this propensity in the early analysis of the results from last Thursday’s Northern Ireland Stormont election – and not all on one side.
Words and phrases such as seismic and era changing are being bandied about a little too easily.
On the other hand, you have the petty attempts to dismiss the significance of the result, as both the Tánaiste and the Taoiseach attempted to do on Saturday.
An attempt that Minister Coveney tried to turbo charge yesterday and today with his assertion that a border poll is “not even on the radar.” I suppose we should be grateful at least that our part time defence minister even knows what a radar is. Maybe he recently spotted one in an equipment catalogue?
These comments stand in contrast to the more constructive remarks of the former Taoiseach Bertie Ahern, and bear too much a resemblance to the barely quarter-witted intervention by UK justice Secretary Dominic Raab, who claimed yesterday that the results showed that “58% of people fully voted either for parties who support the union or for parties who do not support constitutional change.”
Anyone who has read anything I have written here before knows that I do not support Sinn Féin. I have never given a Sinn Féin candidate a preference on any ballot paper. If I were living in Northern Ireland I would have voted SDLP last Thursday. Indeed I have supported and helped the SDLP whenever and however I could for over thirty years… but I have no problem saying that (a) Sinn Féin’s emergence as the largest party in Northern Ireland is historic, and (b) that Michelle O’Neill should be the North’s next First Minister.
To say otherwise is begrudging and undemocratic. There is much that I dislike about Sinn Féin’s extrapolation of the result into something beyond its the genuine significance, but this takes nothing away from the reality that Sinn Féin won more seats and votes than any other party.
So the starting point of any fair and substantive political analysis of the results must be that politics in Northern Ireland have changed and that, to quote Fianna Fáil’s Jim O’Callaghan on Twitter yesterday:
“100 years ago Northern Ireland was designed to ensure it would always be under unionist control. That design has now disappeared.”
There are downsides to the results. Downsides that undermine the claim that this is seismic, but it is important to first highlight the very many upsides.
I have mentioned the main one, the mandate for a nationalist First Minister. The next is the emergence of Alliance as the third party of Northern Ireland politics. It pains me that some of this Alliance advance was on the back of SDLP losses, not least the loss of Nichola Mallon’s seat in North Belfast.
But having the growing “other” community represented in such a cohesive and clear manner may help end the bi-polar, crisis-a-week politics we have seen from both the DUP and Sinn Féin.
It is a bi-polarity to which both governments have contributed by constantly seeking to broker cosy back-room deals with the two big parties to the exclusion of the other ones. Breaking this all we need to do is to get the DUP and Shinners on board and the job is done approach and having the three main parties in the room may make deals harder to reach, but they will hopefully stick when concluded.
The other big plus is the increased majorities in the new Assembly for both the Northern Ireland Protocol and the institutions themselves. There were majorities for both in the last Assembly, not that you’d know this to listen to anyone from the DUP.
But thanks to the DUP insistence that this election be fought on its chosen territories of dumping the protocol and having only a unionist as first minister, those majorities increased.
Speaking of the DUP setting the parameters for the election – it was its virulently anti-nationalist rhetoric, not to mention its participation in shady loyalist organised anti-protocol rallies across the province, which helped to shore up Sinn Féin’s support, often at the expense of the SDLP.
Which brings me to the downsides. Let me again state that none of the downsides I am about to identify diminish Sinn Féin’s entitlement to nominate a First Minister. They simply remind us that victories come with costs you cannot disregard.
The first downside is one I have discussed before – here and here and concerns the better than (some) expected performance of the DUP. While Sir Jeffrey’s party is on a downwards trajectory, it won’t be as steep or dramatic as polls or pundits suggested. Though its first preference vote share dropped by almost 7%, much of it (40k+ votes) went straight to the TUV and came back as 2nd or 3rd preferences.
This enabled the DUP to cut its seat losses to just 3, returning 25 seats. In terms of the Assembly, this means that just 37 of the 90 MLAs are now officially designated as Unionist. A drop of three seats (all DUP) since 2017.
But here’s the problem. That is a drop of one less than on the other side. The number of MLAs designating as nationalists has dropped by 4, from 39 to 35. This is not dramatic, but neither should it be hailed as an achievement. The loss of the 4 SDLP seats is not a win for anyone, including Sinn Féin, despite its crowing and hailing the SDLP slump as a deserved punishment for daring to criticise Sinn Fein.
None of us who advocate strongly and committedly for Irish unity should allow the symbolic importance of the results (to use a description from US Congressman Richie Neal) to ignore the reality that the nationalist vote is static and has been static for some years.
While Sinn Féin has an evident vested interest in trumpeting its own successes and primarily seeing unity as a means of driving up its own support, the wider movement for unity cannot ignore these factors.
That wider movement has a responsibility to advocate for Unity with a structured and detailed vision of how a New Ireland would work (as the SNP did in 2013 with their 650 page Scotland’s Future plan for the independence for Scotland), not just mark the fifth anniversary of Gerry Adam’s calling for a referendum within five years with an… ahem… call for a referendum within five years.
That’s historic in the wrong way.
Derek Mooney is a communications and public affairs consultant. He previously served as a Ministerial Adviser to the Fianna Fáil-led government 2004 – 2010. His column appears here every Monday. Follow Derek on Twitter: @dsmooney
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Sadly it will just be the same but the only difference less unionists more republicans and stormont will no doubt be dormant just like before with the winter fuel debacle then the last debacle
The SDLP lost seats – that’s what they get for hitching their wagon to FF. Some FFers dubbed the SDLP a ‘Damaged Brand’ Now that’s a good one to remember if you ever need a laugh.
Some partnership when Claire Hanna, SDLP, came down south to canvass for FG and Labour a couple of years ago, when the SDLP were supposedly in partnership with FF.
An interesting article. I agree with Mooney’s thesis that this is not an earth-shattering result. But SF have the right to crow about it, although it was in reality a fairly pedestrian result on the day achieved (after years of hard work by SF be it said) owing to the DUP trying to shoot itself in both feet but missing one of them.
However Mooney does make the claim that the SDLP is central to NI politics. It is a long time since that was true.
IMO, that same party has become irrelevant owing to its claims to be “post-nationalist”. This leaves it in the same space as Alliance.
Now Alliance has some advantages over rhe SDLP in this central space.
1 It got there first
2 It can garner support from all sides and none: the post-nat, the non-nat, the post-unionist, the non-unionist, the non-Irish, the non-British etc
This means that while the SDLP’s support comes mainly from the Catholic middle class (with a substantial third/fourth preference vote from Shinners), Alliance has become a genuine catch-all centre party.
The right wing middle-class Catholic ethos of the SDLP’s traditional supporter leaves it as a bit of an anachronism today. I guess if it could jettison that element it could then coalesce with Alliance and thus together have a chance of challenging for the first minister position.
I think the SDLP should get in with Alliance asap and before the UUP come calling. However, a large part of the SDLP are like Catholics from the 1950s in the republic, and a great lot of them, now that civil rights has largely been achieved, are quite happy to butter their bread with a British knife. So long as there is an all island economy, it doesn’t really matter if we have a United Ireland, at least for a couple of generations.
I agree about the SDLP and Claire Hanna threatening to leave over their proposed merger with FF was telling. In southern Irish political terms, the SDLP should be aligned with Labour, and perhaps the Social Democrats- they were the original civil rights party after all. But they have shifted to the right and cannot get over the tribal fence, so are losing support.
Interesting thing about the Alliance is that apart from being the party of both sides- it is very hard to get a handle on where they stand on other issues. Their championing of vaccine passports done them absolutely no favours.
You can’t ask the IRA to give up terrorism in favour of democracy then complain when they become rather good at winning votes.
The sooner the better for a border poll is my view.
Sadly, as in Scotland, I doubt there’s much real appetite for a separation from the Union once the real economic consequences are spelled out.
More’s the pity.
I know of few English people who wouldn’t be delighted to see the back of the troublesome and ungrateful Celts and then sit back with a box of popcorn to watch the carnage.
But when push comes to shove the Jocks and the Paddies still love sucking on Britannia’s teat, which remains engorged thanks to the economic powerhouse of London and the South-East.
‘Twas ever thus.
Tin man you forget the shadowy figures behind Irish politics the men of violence
Do you really want the unionists thug element starting a campaign down south and maybe target like anyplace your lovely council house .
Maybe you have no clue about Irish politics and the elephants in the room both Republican or unionists
A border poll is pretty contentious subject as for the Northern Ireland protocol and the border issue
Failing the Irish Sea separating Northern Ireland from the republic the border issue Is another fly in the ointment
Maybe kier starmer can sort it out after beergate if he gets elected which is quite a fairy story at this moment by clicking his fingers
It’s going to take generations for a United ireland and I do believe in a United ireland but not through violence as there will Never be peace
Kin – I couldn’t give a toss about Northern Ireland mate.
And no-one in England gives a monkey’s about any part of this island.
If you want the North you can have it.
The fact is when the default position of any Irish person is kneeling whilst whingeing about Perfidious Albion but when offered the prospect of a border poll they throw up their hands in horror all we can do is laugh our nuts off.
Now Paddy has stopped bombing the mainland you can go back to killing each other like you used to.
Tin man it’s the possibility to return to pre GFA and this time instead of Blighty it will be here the republic done by unionist thugs
Then what happens when your council house is burnt out
Oh yeh back to Blighty where you might belong
I suppose we will not care a monkey will we
Poor Fat Tart isn’t going to get it tonight
Loyalists won’t be targeting council houses. It’s the middle class that have to be frightened into putting their x into the NO box in a UI referendum.
It will be just like in Northern Ireland during the troubles all the poorer areas
There was no peace wall in affluent Belfast and the knee capping and murders were not in the local yacht clubs
Poor Fat Tart isn’t going to get it tonight for sure
…I’m not sure anyone would connect the decline of the SDLP over the years to Derek’s support for ‘over thirty years’ but he does seem to have a talent for picking the wrong side…I trust the shinners are suitably grateful for his weekly shinner bashing in this column…
A solid non rising vote for SF and a dropping DUP vote have increased the Alliance vote. The north always works by following the money. The canny ones know the protocol was the best thing because it allowed trade both to UK and EU unhindered for the most part much like Thatchers enterprise zones with low taxes. Expect to see the Alliance vote influence increase. The elephant in the room is not the downside of the protocol but the economic upside which no Unionist will admit publicly. Economics versus political dogma ? Which will win ? Ultimately my guess is economics
Eh, beside the point, but Mooney??? What is that Darwin story about? We’re supposed to conclude that Darwin refused the dedication of a book about HIS OWN work, because … [it has] “always been my object to avoid writing on religion, & I have confined myself to science.”
That is logically impossible
The winds of change are blowing north and south of the border and the dinosaurs who refuse to evolve will eventually become extinct.
SDLP vote loser:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FSQ73YpWYAAmilS?format=jpg&name=large
More kiss of death support
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FSVhCEcXsAEB07A?format=jpg&name=900×900
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRnltdTWYAA00ZV?format=jpg&name=large
How did Elsie Trainor get on, Neale?