Mercille

90200319(Dr Julien Mercille, top, and Marc Coleman above with Brian Lenihan at a Confidence In Media conference, 2010)

You may recall UCD lecturer Dr Julien Mercille’s analysis of how the Irish media handled the housing bubble.

Among those Dr Mercille singled out for specific attention was Marc Coleman as he was economics editor of the Irish Times during the latter part of the boom

Mr Coleman responded on twitter that he had warned of an impending crisis and evidence of this was available if we had “bothered to check” the archives. He sent on this correspondence (a letter to the editor the Sunday Tribune in 2010), in which he defends his record as a commentator and analyst during the housing bubble.

Dr Mercille writes:

In April, Broadsheet.ie published articles about some work I have been doing on the media’s coverage of the housing bubble in Ireland, here and here. My point was that the Irish media supported the hype about the housing market and contributed to inflating the bubble that collapsed a few years ago, leading the country into a deep economic crisis.

One media commentator, Marc Coleman, formerly Economics editor at the Irish Times and now running his own radio show on Newstalk, wasn’t so happy about it, and responded to Broadsheet.ie (see above)

I decided to examine Coleman’s record on the housing bubble in more detail, and so I took a look at all the newspaper articles on the property market he has written since 2004 as well as his two books, The Best Is Yet To Come (2007) and Back from the Brink (2009).

Perhaps the clearest examples of how wrong he has been come from the following pieces. In September 2007, he attacked those who warned of a housing collapse like David McWilliams as ‘careless talkers’ who make meaningless ‘simplifications and generalisations’ and threaten to ‘run down our economy’.

Coleman claimed that ‘Far from an economic storm—or a property shock—Ireland’s economy is set to rock and roll into the century’. He thought the economy was so strong that he wrote that ‘Ireland enters the 21st Century in a position of awesome power’, which ‘promises a future more flourishing than ever before; a future that will turn economic prosperity from a statistical fact to a reality’.

Apparently, the country was doing so well that worldwide, ‘hundreds of millions of people are one the move, looking for a country like Ireland to make their home’. After all, ‘Far from collapsing, our economy and property prices will do more than hold up’. Supposedly, all we needed to do to protect ourselves against a crisis was not to talk about it, because ‘unless we talk ourselves into one, an economic storm is not going to happen.’ All we had to do is proceed as if there was no problem at all: ‘If we keep our eyes fixed forward and our heads cool, then the best is yet to come’.

Also, in March 2007, just as the housing bubble reached its peak, he wrote confidently that ‘Nothing exciting is in prospect for the market over the next two or three years, but nothing dangerous is in prospect either’. Later that month, he wrote that ‘some commentators on the property market… are predicting the downfall of the market, the collapse of the economy and the sky falling on our heads’. He said that those people were ‘talking nonsense’, and ‘dangerous nonsense at that’. He continued: ‘Doom merchants and indulgent parents are bad for the market’. He didn’t like those ‘irrational predictions of doom’ because he said ‘the market is correcting, not collapsing’ and in any case we shouldn’t worry because there is only a ‘modest amount of overvaluation in the market’ and ‘the safety nets for house price levels in 2008 are effectively already in place’.

But those are not his only contributions. He wrote a number of articles over the years that reinforced the notion that house prices were set to climb higher or, at worst, would gently stabilise in a ‘soft landing’. For example, he penned articles entitled ‘Housing Demand Set To Stay Strong’ (Irish Times, 28 September 2005), ‘Risk From Collapse in House Prices “Has Receded”’ (Irish Times, 2 November 2005) and ‘House Prices “Set for Soft Landing”’ (Irish Times, 22 November 2005). In another article, entitled ‘“Ryanair” effect adds to confidence in housing market’, he wrote that ‘The Irish housing market will experience another strong year, due in part to Ryanair making Ireland a more accessible place to work, according to Irish Intercontinental Bank (IIB) chief economist Austin Hughes’ (Irish Times, 25 January 2006). He presented another entertaining thesis in an article entitled ‘Legalisation of Contraception a “Major Factor” in House Price Rise’, reporting on a study entitled ‘Condoms and House Prices’ by Alan Ahearne of NUI Galway and Robert Martin of the US Federal Reserve Board (Irish Times, 1 May 2006). Another piece, entitled ‘Economists Forecast 15 More Years of Strong Growth’ (Irish Times, 23 March 2006), stated that ‘As a result of population growth, the number of houses is expected to continue growing by around 65,000 units a year until at least 2020’.

Later, he wrote an article entitled ‘Housing Market Set for “Soft Landing”’ (Irish Times, 28 February 2007) and stated reassuringly that ‘Negative equity is here—but only for a tiny percentage of the market’ (Irish Times, 14 June 2007). One could say that some of those articles were merely news stories and that Coleman was only reporting the opinion of others, but that confirms my point: he chose to report the views of those property ‘experts’ who were cheerleaders for the market, but ignored those who warned that it was in bubble territory, such as Morgan Kelly, David McWilliams, or The Economist magazine.

In January 2006, in the Irish Times’ Property section, Coleman advised his readers on how to buy property overseas. The article started thus: ‘Thinking of investing abroad? Don’t just check out the bars and the beach—research the economy of the country you’re buying in if you want it to be a good long-term prospect. Economics Editor Marc Coleman shows you how’. For example, he wrote that ‘The absence of serious political discord in a country is a necessary if insufficient condition to making a sound investment, in that it helps underpin confidence in the property market’.

In August 2006, he wrote the introduction to a Daft.ie report on the property market. In it, he claimed that the housing market’s ‘price resurgence is “fundamental” in nature’ and thus that it was ‘unlikely’ that ‘a downturn in the market [was] going to happen’.

In January 2008, Coleman encouraged his readers to buy property, writing that ‘provided you are not paying 2007 prices, 2008 could be an excellent year in which to buy’. Some might have wondered whether ‘you should wait until 2009 before buying a house?’ But Coleman said assertively that ‘that idea is nonsense’—as such, ‘many will this year have perfectly good reasons to buy houses in 2008 and—provided they pay 2006 prices—they should go ahead in confidence’. He believed that the property market would ‘bear out my prediction of a quick correction in 2008 followed by resumed growth’.

In March 2008, he wrote another piece entitled ‘Property: bottoming out—so it’s time to spend’. He minimised any worries about the market: ‘Less about a boom and bust, Ireland’s current economic story is more like a property bulge passing through the gullet of our economy’. He thought that by early 2009, ‘at the very latest, house price growth should turn very modestly positive’.

In October 2008, he attacked those who suffer from ‘illiterate panic-mongering’ and talk down the property market and who ‘with no quantitative discipline to back their statements, tell us that house prices are going to fall by another 40 per cent’—well, they’ve actually fallen by about 45% since then.

His optimism was displayed again in a January 2010 article entitled ‘All Signs Indicate We Are Turning the Corner on to Recovery’ (Sunday Independent, 10 January 2010) and in another one entitled ‘It’s Not “Hype”, the Worst Really Is Over’ (Sunday Independent, 7 February 2010) in which he wrote that ‘The armageddon brigade may argue otherwise, but the evidence suggests we are on the slow road to recovery’ and that ‘the signs of recovery are everywhere’.

A few of Coleman’s articles may appear to have warned against a housing crash, such as one entitled ‘Economy Vulnerable to Housing Crash’ (Irish Times, 4 March 2006), but in fact when one reads them, they turn out to have been reassuring about such an event, stating that ‘The good news is that, although possible, a crash is not yet probable’.

Coleman tried to defend his record in an article in the Sunday Independent in 2010, in which he gave examples of articles written by himself that purport to demonstrate that he had, in fact, warned us all about the impending collapse of the economy. However, none of his examples prove anything of the sort. All one can find are a few sentences saying that growth may not be sustainable, that credit is growing too fast, that the construction sector is a very large part of the economy, that the financial sector could be better regulated, etc. For instance, he says that ‘On March 31st 2006 in a piece that began “Stop the economy I want to get off” I warned that financial regulation had broken down’. The piece says that the economy is overheating, but doesn’t warn about a housing bubble.

Coleman also wrote a book entitled The Best Is Yet To Come, published in November 2007. It makes a number of economic assumptions that are simply wrong or irrelevant, such as arguing that a country’s climate and a coastal location help its economic performance: ‘Situated on the temperate if rainy north-west fringe of Europe, Ireland has one of the world’s most fortunate locations’ (pp.11-12). Another one is the book’s main argument, that population growth will stimulate economic growth in Ireland. As Colm McCarthy and Dan O’Brien have noted in their reviews of the book, that doesn’t make any sense, as on that count sub-Saharan Africa, India and other poor countries should be rich. To grow an economy, you need the right policies.

The book presents a very optimistic picture of the Irish economy. Coleman finished writing it in early October 2007, and by that time, signs of an economic slowdown were apparent. For example, he wrote that ‘At the time of writing, latest forecasts from the ESRI indicate that the so-called Celtic Tiger would expire in 2008’ and that housing construction would decrease.

But Coleman saw that as a mere ‘pause for breath’ on the part of the economy. In other words: ‘Ireland’s economic miracle is far from over. As anxiety mounts about the end of Ireland’s boom, The Best is Yet to Come argues that Ireland is not experiencing the beginning of the end, but rather the end of the beginning’, as stated on the book’s back cover.

There’s one line of defence that Coleman may use, and it goes something like this: ‘My predictions were conditional on the government doing this and that, and it didn’t do it, so I can’t be proven wrong’.

For example, in many of his articles and in his 2009 book, entitled Back from the Brink: Ireland’s Road to Recovery, he kept predicting that house prices wouldn’t fall too much or would stabilise soon, only to be constantly proven wrong by further falls in house prices.

But he then says that his predictions were conditional on the government cutting stamp duty or enacting some reforms. He even said that his predictions would materialise provided ‘the kamikaze commentators stop killing confidence’ (p.75). But that line of defence is worthless.

Anybody can predict anything and then blame the government or anybody else for not having done this or that, or not enough of this or that, or having done this or that, but not at the right time, or having done this or that, but not well enough, etc.

Julien Mercille is lecturer at UCD, and author of the forthcoming book, The Media and the Irish Economic Crisis: A Political Economy (Routledge).

Previously: For Those Who Shouted Stop He Salutes You 

I Never Promised You A Rose Garden

(Mark Stedman/Photocall Ireland)

Update:

it Marc Coleman has defended his record on twitter, challenged Dr Mercille to a debate  and has asked us to reprint this article from the Irish Times of July 6, 2006, which we are happy to do. Larger version here.

101 thoughts on “No Mercille

    1. Barry

      Poor Marc needs to stop digging a bigger hole for himself. Marc you got it wrong!! Period

    1. Mrs Stapleton

      You should read it. It’s a good analysis of how poor Marc P Coleman’s economic forecasting ability is, and its impact on the property market.

      In fact, in the time it took you to write your message, you could have read it in its entirety.

    1. gerrys30klasertherapist

      It’s been my experience that a lot of listeners to that station are pr!cks or on the way to becoming one after a few hours of opinionews.
      Who listens to it and enjoys it? Really!!
      *the only exception I would add is the fantastic sport coverage that has been suffering of late but not as bad as I had feared.

      Good day to you all.

  1. The Frilly Keane Enquiry

    I read as far as the bit that included “…. awesome ….”

    That was enough to make me want to kick Coleman up the hole meself.

    So, g’wan Dr Merciless, stitch it inta ‘im

  2. Drogg

    I do some work as a cameraman and every political event coleman is there, always shaking the right hands, talking in the right ears. He is just another part of the golden circle.

    1. Medium Sized C

      You are clearly part of the D4-Elite-Latte-Liberal-Media-Bias-Left-Wing-Political-machine which *cough* is failing to Good-Ordinary-Normal-Middle-Ireland. *cough*

      1. Drogg

        Nope just a low payed independent that holds a camera. I am hardly a journalist i am more of a technician.

        1. Medium Sized C

          NO, YOU ARE PART OF THE D4-ELITE-LATTE-LIBERAL-MEDIA-BIAS-LEFT-WING-POLITICAL-MACHINE WHICH *cough* FAILING GOOD-ORDINARY-MIDDLE-IRELAND! *cough*.
          ANSWER THE QUESTION!

          1. Drogg

            no i am a hard working camera monkey that would find it hard to believe that any of you here would do the hours i do for the shit money i make and i very rarely do anything for the donnybrook crowd but yeah i am totally screwing you all over by revealing a bit of insider knowledge i have

          2. mauriac

            Very good m.s.c. … Coleman makes the most bizarre radio.Reminds me of doctor strange love … (splutter,gag,wheeez)

    1. Mister Mister

      He does a good enough job making an eejit of himself. Did you ever listen to his “Financial Advice” section on The Last Word ?

      Spoofer, and stater of the obvious, of the highest order.

      1. Sido

        I gave up on the Last Word years ago. Anton Savage blew away any vestiges of credibility it had.

  3. Ghostees for justice

    Is there any way to make this guy and the many others like him answerable for their actions. Are there any codes of journalistic integrity or social responsibilities as editor of an establishment newspaper? Should Colem have declared his interests? That he invested in property at the height of the boom? Just like others like gurdiev now agitating for a nama for the people and similar. Why are these people allowed to abuse privileged professional positions in our society? Is there any way to make them answerable? Coleman would be a good one to start on because his carry on is just so blatant. He is a disgrace to his profession and his country. But yet he continues in the same vein unimpeded.

    1. poopypoo

      Pat Kenny had a canary when someone proposed a register of interests for journalists/broadcasts. I wonder why?

      1. gerrys30klasertherapist

        Do you know the Ritz-Carlton in Enniskerry?

        Try and find out about the €1m(original sp) suites that the new managenment company/owners tried to buy back from the miriad of celebrity owners, busted developers, the golden circle and the usual suspects licking their h0les.
        Pretty sure One PK of RTE D4 and also of Dalkey is the owner of one of these, or was until recently.

  4. custo

    This economic journalistic dick swinging contest between every person who has ever penned an article about the property bubble in the last 7 years is growing quite tiresome.

    It’s like the Collins / Dev thing for the post Celtic Tiger era.

    it’s literally never going to end, and everyone comes out of it looking like a smug git.

    1. Medium Sized C

      That is probably the worst description of what is going on here.
      You would have to try extremely hard to get it any more wrong than this.

      Bravo.

    2. Ghostees for justice

      It has nothing to do with Dick swinging, and everything to do with shilling for profit and business favours. That’s on the personal level, and in terms of him getting a post like economics editor of th IT, it had everything to do with his willingness to keep advertisers happy by continually licking their jalls. To say nothing of his own property investment st the height of the boom.

    3. PK

      ah leave it out.

      Young journalists can’t get a fair chance to get their work published and this doughy hack is still “Economics Editor” of Newstalk despite the toxic nonsense he’s spewed over the past decade.

      Same logic that has RTE D listers on the Late Late every Friday

    4. cluster

      Fair point, custo. Let us not establish what happened in Ireland between 2000 and 2007. Let us not bother to see can we prevent such an occurrence in the future.

      Ignorance is bliss, eh?

  5. Sparks

    Poor Marc. He’s not wrong. He’s just right in a way that other people don’t understand.

    1. Bacchus

      Oh he’s wrong. he was wrong then and he’s gotten wronger. I heard him on with G Hook one day (shockingly uninformed radio clusterf~c#) and didn’t know who it was. But I did know it was a stream of the most biased ignorant nonsense I’d heard since Hook last had Mikey Graham on.

  6. Marc Coleman

    First up I’m happy to debate Julien on his blog which I’ll refute more clearly later on.

    A professional economist writing a book would interview me (a courtesy I extend to those I discuss on radio – I always offer them a chance to give their view). Julien hasn’t extended that to me, so clearly isn’t confident about his claims.

    Perhaps this is why: here is a list of comprehensive warnings contained in my first book about the impending crash: http://www.marccoleman.ie/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/TBIYTC-WARNINGS-ABOUT-CRASH.pdf

    Furthermore just because I said at the time that much comment was irresponsible – and it was – does NOT mean I was denying the coming crash. Far from it. I was and still do argue that exacerbating a bad situation with emotional, badly thought out and ill informed generalisation was making a bad situation worse.

    That property prices are much lower the levels I believe are consistent with equilibrium is down to one simple fact: Bank lending has been distorted by a countercyclical regulatory policy and by the impact of a bank bail out that no-one could have envisaged.

    My outlook for the property market – shared by the IMF and even Brian Lucey at the time – was based on an analysis of fundamentals. I can’t take responsibility for subsequent gross errors of policy that have nothing to do with those fundamentals.

    As I say, happy to debate Dr. Mercille any time any day.

    If he’s got the guts.

    Which I doubt.

    1. Daz

      “distorted by a countercyclical regulatory policy”? Would you have had things continue as they were on their merry dance to nowhere!!

    2. What Goes Up...

      Marc – kudos for finally managing to write something that didn’t mention “2005”, stamp duty and population growth.

      My faith in humanity is restored.

    3. Medium Sized C

      “I always offer them a chance to give their view.”

      No you don’t. If there is one thing you consistently fail to do it is give people their view. You give them your view and then bully them shout them down, and go off on tangents about the Liberal elite.

      And when anybody pulls you up on it, you shout them down too
      ( “THAT’S NOT YOUR JOB, BILL” ) .

      You have no upper hand in this, there is nothing to gain by him going on the Coleman Factor.

    4. Nigel

      Why would he need to interview you? Don’t your writings speak for themselves? Do you deny being a cheerleader for the property bubble?

    5. Atticus

      He should go on your show so you can shout him down and talk over him at every opportunity, like you do with all your guests.

    6. Daz

      Mark and Eddie Hobbes should get a redraw on their respective mortgages, buy a yacht and bugger off into the sunset! Sure, what good is all that equity if you don’t use it to buy yourself a wee treat …

    7. Ghostee

      Yes. We all know you cheerlead “An Equilibrium” that subsidises high finance and extortionate economic rents. Please stop. Think of the children…

    8. Sido

      I’d say Mercille is very confident in what he says about you.

      Why would he want to discuss anything at all with you?

    9. Sham Bob

      Why would he go on your show, or do you any professional courtesy? The fact that you still have a show or any public influence must be galling for those who listened to you and are now buried in debt.

    10. sendog

      Here Coleman are you really a journalist or what?
      look here:
      “Furthermore just because I said at the time that much comment was irresponsible – and it was – does NOT mean I was denying the coming crash.”

      what commentary? by whom?
      and how exactly did you come to the conclusion that “it was” irresponsible?

      I think you need to check your ego with your journalism skills.

      but seriuosly, Did drummer pull your head outta his arse?!

  7. Daz

    “distorted by a countercyclical regulatory policy”? You moron! Would you have had things continue as they were on their merry dance to nowhere!!

    1. Daz

      You Sir are a pig and a bully. You also have absolutely no idea of economics. Having said that, with the Financial Comptroller we had at the time that does not surprise me MARK.

    2. Nigel

      So this stuff, from above, which is post that irresponsibly doomy talking-us-into-a-recession article:

      ‘Also, in March 2007, just as the housing bubble reached its peak, he wrote confidently that ‘Nothing exciting is in prospect for the market over the next two or three years, but nothing dangerous is in prospect either’. Later that month, he wrote that ‘some commentators on the property market… are predicting the downfall of the market, the collapse of the economy and the sky falling on our heads’. He said that those people were ‘talking nonsense’, and ‘dangerous nonsense at that’. He continued: ‘Doom merchants and indulgent parents are bad for the market’. He didn’t like those ‘irrational predictions of doom’ because he said ‘the market is correcting, not collapsing’ and in any case we shouldn’t worry because there is only a ‘modest amount of overvaluation in the market’ and ‘the safety nets for house price levels in 2008 are effectively already in place’.’

      Did he make all that up? You say context, but this context just adds weird and rather stark contradictions. How on earth can they be reconciled?

    3. Daz

      I think all he said was that the Govt should raise interest rates and lower wages. Bit late at the time for those already up to their necks in the hype from esteemed economic journalists.

    4. Sgt. Bilko

      And having put down the shovel, he’s climbed into the cab of a HyMac and is going for broke…

    5. Tommy

      Marc you’ve been entertaining me for years, keep it up. The best is yet to come buddy!

  8. Ghostee

    No one could have envisaged the bank bail-out? All it took was to look at Anglo, AIB and BOI annual reports from 2000-2009 and see the huge ramp up in interbank cross deposits (from BOI and AIB to Anglo) and Central Bank cross deposits in Anglo starting in mid 2006 to make up for large scale depositor flight from Anglo. Everybody in a senior position at the Central Bank, the Financial Regulators, DOF, BOI and AIB knew exactly what was going on at Anglo from the summer of 2007 onwards. (ht JMC on the pin.). If you look to the financial newspapers like the WSJ and FT in the months leading up to Lehman’s, you see they all knew too. It’s not that no one could envisage it. The critical thing is the self-denial prevailing, entailing cover-up. Marc, if you say you knew it so well yourself, could you not have done the sums like say, Peter Matthews, Morgan Kelly, David McWilliams, the Economist, and many others? Forget Brian Lucey. He is of the same feather as yourself.

  9. Ghostee

    As for ‘impact of bank bail-out’, it kind of pales in comparison beside the fact that since 2008, we have been borrowing around 13 billion a year to help support the tax-take that keeps the prevailing establishment mores and status quo in the style they’ve become accustomed to. Yep, we’re talking around 80 billion in the last six years. How much did the banks cost us again? It’s not just the banks at the trough though. It’s nearly half the bleeding country. The RTE’s and Denis O’Briens and every two bit gombeen going…

  10. Mrs Stapleton

    Hahaha

    Marc Coleman has a pre-prepared PDF showing why he was right.

    That’d be tragic if it wasn’t so hilarious.

    1. Naughtius

      And the best is yet to come.
      All joking aside the fact that there are a lot of people who got it so badly wrong that are still taken seriously instead of being laughed out of it or ignored says a lot about Ireland. The fact that people still willingly attend a Fianna Fail ard fheis baffles me.

  11. sendog

    Here Coleman are you really a journalist or what?
    look here:
    “Furthermore just because I said at the time that much comment was irresponsible – and it was – does NOT mean I was denying the coming crash.”

    what commentary? by whom?
    and how exactly did you come to the conclusion that “it was” irresponsible?

    I think you need to check your ego with your journalism skills.

    but seriuosly, Did drummer pull your head outta his arse?!

  12. Marc Coleman

    Have challenged Julien “No Mercille” to debate by twitter, by leaving phone message and by emailing him.

    Pas de response.

    I’m not saying he hasn’t the courage of his convictions.

    But his failure to engage isn’t encouraging

    Nor is his total lack of thoroughness in research.

    To repeat I still believe market equilibrium is at 2004 levels and that far from economic fundamentals being behind falls to below this level a dysfunctional and countercyclical approach to bank regulation and policy failure at bank bail out level – the extent of which no one could have foreseen – has stopped the market from working.

    That the ESRI have suspended their monthly price index – and the scarcity of multiple bidding – shows we don’t have a market to speak about.

    If when lending conditions normalise prices don’t recover to where I believe they should be then I’ll take the pillorying that comes.

    Until then the OECD and Central bank agree that prices are dysfunctionally undervalued.

    So I’m sticking to my guns.

    And I’ll take on Mercille whenever he wants.

    1. Twunt

      You managed to abuse the wrong Julien Mercille on twitter.

      Perhaps a bit of shouting is in order?

    2. Naughtius

      Didn’t you get the wrong person on twitter?
      A debate that can be had on twitter is a debate taht’s not worth having.
      Give it a rest, you sum up Ireland in the bubble years perfectly. You’re up there with Brendan O’Connor and Amanda Brunker.

    3. mike

      Marc, this thread isn’t about your current predictions for the property market. It’s about your previous predictions.

      Let’s revisit your current predictions in, oh, 5 years time. Meanwhile, your record doesn’t inspire much confidence.

    4. Nigel

      Doesn’t really address the preponderance of cheerleading you did back in the day, does it? (Actually, I’m not sure it’s even English.)

    5. What Goes Up...

      Marc – you really should stop.

      To repeat I still believe market equilibrium is at 2004 levels and that far from economic fundamentals being behind falls to below this level a dysfunctional and countercyclical approach to bank regulation and policy failure at bank bail out level – the extent of which no one could have foreseen – has stopped the market from working.

      Why is market equilibrium at 2004 levels?

      There were two asset bubbles Marc – the first between 1997 and 2001 and the second from 2001 to 2007 – and both in housing. The first was driven by a boom in exports, the second by banks tearing the arse out of the cheap credit afford them through Euro membership.

      Germany kept the interest rate artificially low in the new Euro area to accommodate their reunification project. The Irish banks went crazy on access to this and drove land and property prices to stratospheric levels.

      Everything from 2001 onwards was the banks blowing a massive credit bubble.

      This had two negative effects – it inflated current prices and it also committed future revenue flows to those inflated prices – so it brought consumption forward into an asset bubble and meant that the overpricing of the 2001-2007 era would guarantee an underpricing after the bubble burst – it’s not a side effect, but a direct result.

      If when lending conditions normalise prices don’t recover to where I believe they should be then I’ll take the pillorying that comes.

      Until then the OECD and Central bank agree that prices are dysfunctionally undervalued.

      The banks blew the second bubble so big that they managed to blow themselves up in the process – the outcome being the entire banking system imploded.

      The fallout from that means you’re faced with a Japanese-like zombie banking disaster and the possibility of two lost decades.

      All of this has happened before Marc. Saying 2004 is equilibrium and that lending is artificailly constrained is to ignore the lessons of history.

      Carry on if you wish – but you can do so only by trying to beat the facts into submission. A Sisyphean task – but one which you appear determined to endevour!

    6. Robocop

      You have literally no support on this. This is Spain V Tahiti. At least they had the good grace to realise they were hammered. I knew you were a fairly deluded sort but now I know you’re an awful person to boot. Vain, arrogant, spiteful, egotistical. The best is yet to come when you’re sort are given the boot from radio.

  13. Mrs Stapleton

    This is my favourite part of the article:

    “Coleman also wrote a book entitled The Best Is Yet To Come, published in November 2007. It makes a number of economic assumptions that are simply wrong or irrelevant, such as arguing that a country’s climate and a coastal location help its economic performance: ‘Situated on the temperate if rainy north-west fringe of Europe, Ireland has one of the world’s most fortunate locations’ (pp.11-12). Another one is the book’s main argument, that population growth will stimulate economic growth in Ireland. As Colm McCarthy and Dan O’Brien have noted in their reviews of the book, that doesn’t make any sense, as on that count sub-Saharan Africa, India and other poor countries should be rich. To grow an economy, you need the right policies.”

    Marc Coleman is a very angry man.

  14. Paul Moloney

    So, when did Marc buy his house? That should be proof of the pudding for any economic forecaster?

    P.

  15. Andrew

    Finally Marc Coleman has been called out for what he is. By the way Marc,when did you buy your house? 2005 I think it was. You haven’t a clue and you don’t have the humility or sense to keep quiet. In a nation of bluffers and chancers, you’re right up there. Doing your Bill O’Reilly impression on Newstalk to how many listeners? You’re lucky to be employed at all.
    Bravo Dr.Mercille.

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