International Economy magazine, which is like Take A Break for money managers and market analysts, asked a number of “top thinkers” how likely are countries on the “Eurozone periphary” (Portugal, Greece, Ireland) to default outright on soveriegn debt over the next three to five years.
Here’s how they scored Ireland’s chances:
Desmond Lachman, Resident Fellow American Enterprise Institute: CERTAIN
Barton M Biggs, Managing Partner, Traxis Partners: CERTAIN
Louis Bacon, CEO Moore capital management: CERTAIN
Samuel Brittan, Columnist Financial Times: UNLIKELY
Robert K Steel, Deputy Mayor of Economic Development, New York City: PROBABLE
Karl Otto Pohl, Former President, German Bundesbank: UNLIKELY
Jim O’Neill, Chairman Asset Management, Goldman Sachs: UNLIKELY
Tadashi Nakamae, President Nakamae International Economic Research: PROBABLE
Horst M Teltschik, Former president Beoing Germany: PROBABLE
Richard N Cooper, Professor of International Economics, Harvard: UNLIKELY
Michael J Boskin, Professor of Economics, Stanford University: FIFTY/FIFTY
Maya Bhandari, Head of Emerging Markets, Lombard Street Research: PROBABLE
Bernard Connolly, Managing Director, Connolly Macro Advisors: CERTAIN
Wendy Dobson, Former Associate Deputy Minister of Finance, Canada: CERTAIN
Benjamin Friedman, Professor of Political Economy, Harvard: PROBABLE
Makoto Utsumi, President and CEO, Japan Credit Agency: WON’T HAPPEN
Edward Yardeni, President, Yardeni Research: UNLIKELY
Catherine L Mann, Professor of Global Finance, Brandeis University: CERTAIN
Ronald McKinnon, Professor of International Economics, Stanford: PROBABLE
Jean Pierre Patat, President Thierry Apoteker Consulting: UNLIKELY
James M Glassman, Senior Economist, JPMorgan Chase: UNLIKELY
Norbert Walter, Chief Economist Emeritus, Deutsche Bank: PROBABLE
Bowman Cutter, Senior Fellow, Roosevelt Institute: CERTAIN
Charles Wolf, Senior Research Fellow, Hoover Institution: UNLIKELY
David K P Li, Chairman, Bank of East Asia: PROBABLE
Robert J Shapiro, Former US Under Secretary of Commerce: CERTAIN
Murray Weidenbaum, Mallinckrodt Professor, Washington University: PROBABLE
James Capra, Capra Asset Management: PROBABLE
Download: International Economy: Sovereign Debt Symposium (PDF)