Apart from the fact that he was out of his depth and living on mixed grills and Guinness.
Consider the advice he was getting.
Economist John McCarthy, Brian’s ‘guy’ at the Department of Finance, first cropped up in one of last month’s Wikileaks cables:
In a ‘confidential’ dispatch to the US State Department in Washington, former US Ambassador Thomas Foley wrote of how the government was “bouncing from crisis to crisis”.
The cable, dated December 2008, reports on a meeting with John McCarthy – described as the “chief forecaster” in the Department of Finance – and two “economic officials” from the Department of the Taoiseach, John Shaw and George Shaw.
According to the cable, Mr McCarthy told US Embassy officials that “forecasting anything in the current uncertain environment is almost impossible”. He added the government could “only react given the fast pace of the downturn”.
Why they were still calling him John “Chief Forecaster” McCarthy in 2008 is an even bigger mystery this morning than it must have been then.
A memo in the Irish Times written by John to Brian Cowen and dated July 2007 shows he not only denied what was happening around him but, almost politically, rubbished warnings by the likes of economist Morgan Kelly. He practically scoffs:
“[Kelly’s] analysis considers house price developments in OECD countries and finds a strong relationship between the size of the initial increase in prices and the subsequent fall. If the same relationship was to hold for Ireland, then real house prices would decline by 40 to 60 per cent over a period of eight to nine years.
Of course it has taken less than five years. Then there are Cowen’s dummy cards.
The “speaking points” prepared for Mr Cowen in response to Prof Kelly’s article assert that people “must be careful that we do not overreact to the current easing from the very high levels of activity” in housing market.
“House prices have fallen back slightly in recent months,” states the next speaking point, before adding that “prices still remain about their levels this time last year”.
In the final speaking point, Prof Kelly’s analysis of a property bubble is rejected, pointing to other factors as the reasons behind the high property values.
It recommended that Mr Cowen say: “I share the view of most commentators that house prices increases in recent years have been underpinned by many factors including a strong economy, increases in employment and earnings, reductions in taxation and lower interest rates resulting from participation in monetary union.”
After a year like 2007 wouldn’t John himself have concluded that he was probably not cut out for forecasting things. Huge strengths in other areas, sure, just not a predictions kind of guy.
Anyway, wonder where he’s working now?
Cowen Told To Dismiss Property Warning (Harry McGee, Irish Times)
Revealed Total Chaos As Economy Collapsed (Shane Doran, Brenadn Keenan, Irish Independent)