This afternoon (1.40pm).
Via Ciarán Bolger
Earlier…
Labour TD Duncan Smith in the RDS during the count for the Dublin Bay South by-election this morning
Calling it for Ivana Bacik.#DublinBaySouth
— Kevin Cunningham (@kevcunningham) July 9, 2021
#dbsbyelection 28% tally:
Boylan (SF) 29.8%
Bacik (Lab) 26.0%
Geoghegan (FG) 17.7%Boxes so far mostly from areas in which left/working class vote is strong pic.twitter.com/oUspwN0mTX
— Gavan Reilly (@gavreilly) July 9, 2021
This morning.
Gulp.
Earlier…
This morning.
Ballsbridge, Dublin 4.
A layer of protective perspex in front of ballot boxes and tellers in the RDS, as the count begins for the Dublin Bay South by-election.
More to follow.
Meanwhile…
LIVE: Tallies for Dublin Bay South!
The teams on the ground are putting the data from each box into this spreadsheet with a live at-a-glance state of play.#DBS21 #dbsbyelection https://t.co/fmPGxGju3h
— Gavan Reilly (@gavreilly) July 9, 2021
Fun outside:
https://twitter.com/SeanDefoe/status/1413417573115387905
‘Twould be no fun for her inside anyway. Besides, “Let me out!” suggests that she thinks that she’s already in there.
Lol. Dialling up the crazy to warp speed. For what, 100 votes?
Amusingly, Gemma denounced Dolores Cahill in one of her “streams” recently for running against pot-bellied goblin Barrett, and has added Dilly to her list of “traitors” to be dealt with along with the (very, very, very) long list of others at Gemma’s Nuremberg-style trials.
bunch of weirdos
(and usually I’m ok with weirdos but not so much in this case lol)
I’ll stand you a pint if I’m wrong about the result boxy
Wishful thinking on Boxy’s part. I second your prediction.
TBH, I’d let her in. It’s only a paltry stunt. Were I to arrest Cahill, it wouldn’t be for refusing to wear a mask but for that thirsty mullet. Surely the paytriot donations would allow her a bottle of conditioner. Curly hair needs care.
Lynn Boylan topping the poll so far.
I don’t think it’s a stunt. I’d say she genuinely believes she’s doing her civic duty by refusing to wear a mask.
If Boylan does well, the big issue for the Shinners will be whether to run two Shinner candidates in DBS at the next general election. There is no way there are two Shinner seats in DBS and likely Boylan is just borrowing Chris Andrews’ votes. Andrews is rough and ready and zealously guards his seat and voters. I suspect this will raise Boylan’s profile and the Shinners will run her elsewhere, next general election.
Nah re mask – it is just for publicity and donations. This must have crossed her mind. I love that Gemma is seething with jealousy though.
Narrator: They didn’t.
Based on the tally:
Lab ↑ 30.3% (from 7.8%)
FG = 26.2% (from 27.7%)
SF = 15.8% (from 16.1%)
Green ↓7.9% (from 22.4%)
FF ↓ 4.8% (from 13.8%)
@Cian – makes sense. Boylan’s votes are thus “loaned” from Andrews.
Do you think the anti-mask stuff by Cahill is an easy grift to bring gullible people on board with the racist stuff or is she directing her own social media propaganda vote for the loonies?
I hear ze professor is having a fit outside
ejected for refusing to mask up
tool
sorry, i’m not up to date on my list of loon-bags. which one is this? cummings?
Edit – sorry I just scrolled down further and found the
relevant q follower
Not very stateswoman-like.
She’s not had an easy time on the road to demask us
Screeching like a banshee is unlikely to help.
Hah!
that fancy spreadsheet tells you all you need to know about how this will end
a strong opposition vote but Tories will be Tories and there’s just more of them
it is what it is
It really is an impressive spreadsheet. If I could afford to live in Dublin Bay South, I’d have voted for it.
But Ivana will, and good for her.
To mark the occasion, here is a cartoon featuring James Connolly
http://www.harkavagrant.com/index.php?id=13
With 96 of 106 boxes open Bacik is doing well, currently at 30%; SF is on 16% and FG on 26%
It’s looking like it will end up as Lab/FG/SF as the last three and SF’s transfers will decide the seat.
it’s surely Bacik on those transfers
congrats boxy well called
love that spreadsheet you could see almost at the street level what’s going on
Geoghegan was just the wrong candidate for FG. Obvious from the get-go. Ivana is well-liked across DBS with a strong profile. Add in disaffected Kate O’Connell (female) voters who remains popular in her D6 fiefdom and well, it was an easy one to divine. There is a finite Shinner vote in DBS and Boylan did as best as she could have hoped for although I did think her heart wasn’t in it.
Once again Varadkars inate mysogeny has come back to bite him in the bum, excellent!
I expect the Irish Times/Sunday Indo etc will love Bacik getting in, expect loads of “Labour are back” puff pieces.They will be drooling over the prospect of the return of the FFG house-trained “left”. Still anything better than FFG getting a win
Dangerous times for Martin and Varadkar.
When will Martin be heaved?
Martin will be heaved by whom? Jim O’Callaghan who was Conroy’s DBS election agent? There is no need for a heave – Martin will be gone in March 2022. I suspect this government may last its full term. There is likely not going to be an appetite within FG and FF to tear down the government early to be savaged in a general election.
I’m perfectly happy for Varadker and Mehole to stay put until GE time, they’re doing all the work by themselves, enough rope etc.
I reckon the best bit will be when Varadker steps in…I’m not so sure certain parts of FF will tolerate it for long and we might see shenanigan’s at that point….
good point on Kate O’Connell. did she lose seat in GE cause of her friendship with the swing-gate one.
being a pharmacist (bored and money to burn) i expect she will run in next GE.
+1 Well called, Boxy!
Rather pathetic for Dolores Cahill to be bringing her social media following into things.
By that metric should we give elevated rights to PewDiePie? Kim Kardashian?
Maybe take Michael D out of An Aras and put in a TikTok ahem, ”star” instead?
Ridiculous stuff indeed.
in the scheme of things, this bi-election is so irrelevant.
though my faith has been somewhat restored if people are going for Ivana over Geoghean.
FG are going to need some crisis meetings over the weekend to figure out how they can stay relevant.
FF has a bit of a conundrum too I think
a bi-election? I’ll give that my number one!
sez the Irish Times….
“Irish Times political correspondent Harry McGee gives his response to the full tally figures, which show Labour’s Ivana Bacik on more than 30 per cent of the vote: It’s a stunning victory for the Labour party and will have a transformational effect on its standing in Irish politics”
see this state of the nation narrative attempt, hm?
well I disagree entirely anyway, this by-election is not any indicator for how a GE would turn out, its nonsense as this is about as niche a constituency as it gets, the Irish Labour Party are not reborn and if there was a GE tomorrow morning they’ll still come in with a similarish seat count
Kate’s tweet (if it was hers) must have worked.
There’s talk that Justin Barrett and Dolores Cahill got a combined total of 349 votes.
That’s got to hurt.
Apparently Barrett pipped Cahill by six votes – presumably those of Doc, Sleepy, Grumpy, Bashful, Sneezy and Happy.
It seems that he only beat Cahill by three votes: 176-173.
Can the heave against Barrett be far behind today’s flop?
Even though FF/FG are traditionally rural/farming, they cant ignore this bad result.
i think in the election after the crash (2010?) there wasnt one FF TD in any dublin constituency.
im predicting SF to win the next general election and run the country for about 10 years before a right wing political group takes over. and then we will be more like europe with a left and right wing parties rather than pro treaty and anti-treaty.
Historically the Government parties lose more by-elections than they win;
It is a bad results for FF (4.8% down from 13.8%)
FG less so (26.1% down from 27.7%)
*based on the Tally result
Unrelated but Happy Cyber Polygon 2021 Day everybody! https://cyberpolygon.com/about/
Somewhat strange to see the WEF running one of their simulation events (like Event 201 in Nov 2019 for a coronavirus pandemic) for cyber attacks on global supply chains yet hosting it in Russia with significant Russian involvement. At the same time, we are being told all of these cyber attacks are emanating from Russia or Russian linked groups. Such contradictions matter little. The people never notice anyway…
Ratlicker racists roundly rejected.
hopefully whomever is burning money on these people are getting the idea that there’s no traction for their version of white noise stupid in these here parts
A massive 0.7% for Cahill and the same for Barrett. They’re a long, long way from being able to claim to speak for the people of Ireland.