This morning.
Assistant Professor at University College Dublin Stefan Müller tweetz:
“New working paper with Aidan Regan: “The Compass of Irish Politics is Moving to the Left” Based on @csestweets data and the 2020 @ucdpolitics election poll, we show that the average Irish voter now identifies on the centre-left.
“Comments welcome!”
From the paper:
“…we find that respondents with lower incomes and higher education are most likely to self-identify on the left. In terms of voting behaviour, lower income voters and those who self-identify on the left have a higher probability to vote for Sinn Féin.
“Conversely, lower educated voters on higher incomes are most likely to self-identify on the right. In terms of voting behaviour, higher income voters and those who self-identify on the right are most likely to vote Fine Gael.
“The deeper theoretical question is what explains this variation, and why certain voters (lower income, women, urban, higher educated) are more likely to self-identify on the left than others? This requires much more longitudinal research, and more fine-grained data. But we suggest it is related to a growth in higher educated voters that do not earn high incomes, and the explicit left populist strategies of Sinn Féin.
“Sinn Fein’s left populism has enabled them to build a broad left coalition that cuts across gender, and one that integrates the preferences of low income households with low to middle income higher-educated voters, whilst also adopting a cultural nationalist narrative that appeals to many voters.”
Read the paper in full here
It’s got a long way to travel.
loving the fancypants doctorate-y white paper analysis there. lookit lads it’s fairly simple really:
FFG in conjunction with various cronies such as the RCC have run the state to their own liking completely uninterrupted for the 100 years the State has existed maintaining a comfortable conservative gravy train for themselves and all who enjoy the benefits of their ideology
there is little reduction of inequality involved, there is a growing realisation of same amongst those who are disadvantaged by that whom will eventually deliver a vote for a change away from FFG ownership of Government – and it almost happened already in the last GE save for a large but understandable strategic error on the part of SF – but like it or not change IS coming.
but like “populism” or whatevr
lol
“Look it lads, it’s fairly simple…” said every populist ever. Lol.
…agree goldenbrown, this has a terrible academic whiff to it…I always have to smile when I see SF referred to as a left-wing party…many of the shinners and nearly all of the provos I’ve known down the years would be more in sympathy with Peadar Tobin than MaryLou…I can’t help feeling the left have missed their chance…FFG form a right wing rump that can always rely on some carpet bagger group or their own gene pool to maintain the status quo for generations to come…
‘Carpet bagger’ – ?
What on earth is this supposed to mean, in this context – where are these ‘carpet baggers’ supposed to have come from?
…mmm…what context have you in mind Bog_R…I’m using it in the context of a political term of derision for a group prepared to sacrifice any principle they espoused in order to get elected…in recent years, the greens, labour and a hotchpotch of opportunists who labelled themselves independent alliance…sorry if I’ve confused you…
Ps happy cultchies day…
Yes, you confused me, because that it not what a ‘carpetbagger’ is…
…far be it from me to get into a semantic sword fence with someone of your erudition…so enlighten me…
Piss poor intellectual lefties.
Rich thick conservatives.
Fresh, new, groundbreaking stuff ;)
They fail to mention that SF have that magic money tree (see also PBP, Soc Dems) which appeals to dumb-dumbs and gobdaws alike.
you say that but there’s an awfully large money tree on the right called HAP, lining the pockets of landlords.
“on the right”
– I’m not sure if you really understand ‘Left’ vs ‘Right’ if you think that the state paying the rents of people who cannot afford to pay it themselves out of general taxation is somehow related to the ‘Right’.
Well, I would say it’s because HAP was introduced by a FG government, whose economic strategy at that time was that of austerity, which is more often than not associated with the right. And HAP was introduced as a sticking plaster against a spiraling housing crisis (still not solved) and rising rents (still rising), where sustained and immediate investment into affordable and social housing would likely have made for a better long term solution, which went against austerity measures and so here we are in 2020 with a rising HAP bill for the taxpayer and not much else.
Again – regardless of how effective or otherwise it is, I don’t really understand how someone can look at a government programme that pays the rent of people who are unable to pay market rents and say “yep, that’s a phenomenon of the Right, alright”,
I wasn’t disagreeing with you Rob, which I can see upon a reread may not have been clear in my comment. I was playing devil’s advocate.
And while I do have my issues with FG, housing being only one of many, I do think you’re right in that HAP is not something which would traditionally be considered as a ‘right’ policy.
HAP is just the latest incentive towards privatising Social Housing
Which started in the mid mebbe late 90s
And they’re all – ALL
All about privatising social housing
And it can go back to when Central Government via Dept of Environment began to defund Local Authorities
HAP is just the latest dig out to get more Private Landlord provided units onto the system
On the other hand the councils started selling off all their council properties in the 90s too. It was the biggest transfer of State assets into Private hands since the founding of the State.
What happened to the billions raised form selling the public stock? Did that money go into central government funds? or the individual council’s funds?
What are ya asking me for?
Shur’ you’re lad that’s mad for getting and digging up data n’ facts n’stuff
Doctors of Philosophy overlook the personalist and clientalist attitudes of average voters in Irish elections. They don’t think ideologically, unlike university sociologists, pol scientists, cultural anthropologists and others.
Has anyone gotten to define `’populism” . Seems to be used as a mild rebuke for policies that the person using the word finds disagreeable without being able to say why, so “populism” a catch all insult without the need for definition.
And its used in an academic research document ………..Seriously?
Populism is offering easy answers to complex problems
Ex: Trump saying: “Build the wall!”, or SF saying they will increase spending in every area, while at the same time cutting everyone’s taxes.
I attempted it here https://frillykeane.com/2019/01/03/hijacked/
feck nearly two years ago
dunno if its much help
tbh
no need for the second study as to why. it’s pretty clear why rich dummies vote right, and why smart poors vote left. always has been.
Great headline btw, Bodge.
Ta, Rob_G!
interesting to see FG’s reaction to this. Will they completely abandon any pretence that they work for anyone else apart from wealthy friends? just knuckle down on keeping their support and lay waste to the rest? or try to appear as tho they’re changing to include the poors? surely theyve utterly lost any poors who were strangely still voting for them?
For the first 4 years FG were closer to centre than FF. And between the two got more than 50% of the vote… that’s a lot of “wealthy friends”.
in 2020 FG & FF are about 5.6; which is as close to centre as SF were from 2002-2016 (about 4.5) (i.e. all of them are very close to centre)
The center cannot hold.
Mere anarchy (boredom) is loosed upon the world.
SF had very bad LE and EP elections in 2019 and were on course to lose another 60000 votes in GE 2020. In GE 2020 they gained 240000 votes on 2016, add the 60000 they were on course to lose and in reality they picked up 300000. Explanation is clear, FF and FG were seen as one and the same party responsible for shocking problems in housing and health and a huge frustrated section of the Irish electorate looked around and spotted SF. More out of sheer spite than any belief in SF 300000 totally unexpected votes went to SF. Pandemic allowed electorate to go soft on FG and opposition joined in and this allowed Varadkar and Harris to become heroes. Then it happened, the hated FF came in to government at end of June and the only surprise is that FF so far have not been blamed for causing Covid-19. The big difference now is that instead of 3 equally toxic parties we have 2, SF and FG and poor old FF are on the verge of oblivion or maybe they will hold with the rest of the non-entities in Dail Eireann. Yes, lets blame the parties for the awful uncertain state of Irish politics but lets not forget when it comes to toxic the electorates are every bit as bad. Most toxic part of the electorate are a substantial part of the non voters who plague us with their rants and bitterness that poisons the minds of so many