This morning.

Assistant Professor at University College Dublin Stefan Müller tweetz:

“New working paper with Aidan Regan: “The Compass of Irish Politics is Moving to the Left” Based on @csestweets data and the 2020 @ucdpolitics election poll, we show that the average Irish voter now identifies on the centre-left.

“Comments welcome!”

From the paper:

“…we find that respondents with lower incomes and higher education are most likely to self-identify on the left. In terms of voting behaviour, lower income voters and those who self-identify on the left have a higher probability to vote for Sinn Féin.

“Conversely, lower educated voters on higher incomes are most likely to self-identify on the right. In terms of voting behaviour, higher income voters and those who self-identify on the right are most likely to vote Fine Gael.

“The deeper theoretical question is what explains this variation, and why certain voters (lower income, women, urban, higher educated) are more likely to self-identify on the left than others? This requires much more longitudinal research, and more fine-grained data. But we suggest it is related to a growth in higher educated voters that do not earn high incomes, and the explicit left populist strategies of Sinn Féin.

“Sinn Fein’s left populism has enabled them to build a broad left coalition that cuts across gender, and one that integrates the preferences of low income households with low to middle income higher-educated voters, whilst also adopting a cultural nationalist narrative that appeals to many voters.”

Read the paper in full here