From top: The Irish Mail on Sunday cover at the weekend, CSO crime figures released last week and a table showing burglaries and garda station closures created by David Higgins
David Higgins, political analyst and founder of Irish Election Stats, writes:
“Last week there was a flurry of stories in the wake of the harrowing case in Tipperary, new CSO crime data and a review of Garda station closures. I was curious to see whether the data support a link between station closures and the increase in burglaries – see table above.
Half the station closures took place in the North and West of the country yet burglaries are down in those regions. Dublin (which has seen the largest increase in burglaries) only accounts for 2% of the station closures.
Something has caused a rise in burglaries, but I’m quite certain it has little to do with Garda station closures.”
Anyone?
Distorted unemployment numbers?
Because the criminal families committing these crimes keep getting away with it for the most part. They seem to run rings around the Gardaí if certain media outlets are to be believed.
These people get up in the morning and spend the entirety of every day floating around housing estates, rural farming areas and towns seeing what they can steal from us while you and I go to work, pay lots of taxes, try to provide for our families and contribute to society in a small way. It really galls me.
Does revenue ever inquire as to the source of the very evident income of some of these families?
…but they need to find the treasures in your home.
This post is about how the newspapers peddle anecdotal suppositions which turn out not to have any basis in fact.
Your response is to throw out further random suppositions?
Thank you for your helpful clarification.
Rising inequality
What? You should elaborate your point unless you want that comment to come across as victim blaming or perpetrator excusing.
bro
It is not ‘pepetrator excusing’ to suggest that there is a link between increased inequality & increased crime rates.
We run a “300 strikes, you’re out” policy. Crims can rack up conviction after conviction while out on bail for previous offences. There’s no deterrent, so why wouldn’t they?
It’s actually perfectly rational for a criminal with 10, 20 , 30 convictions to “double-down” and simple continue on his chosen career path. It’s not like things are going to improve much for him if he goes straight, in fact, their financial situation will probably get worse. And the practical down side of life of crime isn’t all that great – do a few 3 or 4 year stretches in jail…unless you get stupid and start using violence….
Answer? Make the down-side hurt more and give those that want it a route to 40 hour weeks, paying taxes and doing the school-run.
The lack of any real consequences of getting caught?
My parents, a normal middle-aged, friendly couple were beaten up on a walk in a park a year or two ago – the scum who did it were all on bail, had 100’s of offences… and the DPP declined to prosecute. Robbing a house is even less risky.
There is NO downside to chancing your arm burgling a house in Ireland, none whatsoever. You can rape someone, attack someone, rob someone, and you’re fine – just make sure you pay your TV license and install that satellite dish correctly.
Tell that to John “Frog” Ward.
Just because you smush one cockroach doesn’t mean the vast majority don’t get away with it.
Increasing the prison population doesn’t necessarily reduce crime.
Catching criminals and then letting them go about their business attacking and robbing decent people *GUARANTEES* you don’t reduce crime.
Oh yeah, closing down Garda Stations reduces crime. So why not close the lot and we could have a crime free country. FFS
It actually can do. The main problem with the old system is that local politicians insisted on having a station in each village, often open for only a few hours. This was manned by an officer who could not leave the station as they had to stay open. That means all the criminals know where the garda were and most garda could not get out as they were manning advice centers for politicians.
Now at least these garda are in patrol cars and can do something if there is a crime. it may not seem so good to people who know nothing about policing but it is a far more effective way of policing. The criminals are very mobile so our police need to be as well.
That’s the biggest strawman I’ve ever seen. You should apply for a job with Burning Man.
Can’t make head nor tail of those stats, what with all the banjos playing in the background…
Em… are the reporting of figures correct, can we believe them… is it worse than they say…. I think it fair to say that it IS worse then is reported.
May 2015
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/probe-into-massaging-of-garda-crime-stats-31209780.html
“Turmoil over alleged massaging of crime figures by gardai may lead to a ban on rank-and-file officers re-classifying incidents.”
July 2015
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/why-are-ireland-s-crime-statistics-in-disarray-1.2272970
“….while certain crimes were recorded properly initially, they were later reclassified to less serious offences, with no apparent justification.”
http://youtu.be/_ogxZxu6cjM
You juke the stats, and majors become colonels.
Cash for Gold shops have an awful lot to do with it.
Simplistic?, maybe, but true.
Poor the criminals.
Are there any statistics for where opposition to water meter protests have been most vigorous? thus leaching Garda resources to supervise them?
Based on my own incomplete and fuzzy recollection this would be Dublin and Cork, where the increase is most pronounced.
But then again, couldn’t it just be the case that these regions have the most people and thus there are more people to rob (and do the robbing)? Maybe the decrease in the Western and Northern regions is attributable to so many people actually leaving those regions?
Doesn’t look like there’s been much of an attempt to normalise these stats per capita.
Just so I know, are you affiliated with any government party?
I work in construction, if that helps …
A return of capital punishment anyone?
Cut funding for the Police. Sure what could go wrong? Slow hand clap for the Government
…and the big wheel of perpetual sh1te which is life in modern Ireland, continues to turn
BUT BUT BUT they saved a pittance while putting the lives and property of the populace at huge risk and increasing the total cost to joe average through increased insurance costs.