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Dan Boyle

Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil will be quite close to each other in terms of seats. It shouldn’t be a surprise if FF has the greater numbers.

Sinn Féin will make a further advance, perhaps an extra dozen seats. This will fit in with their masterplan but the progress will seem less fluent that it has been.

….Labour seems to heading to a single figure representation in the next Dáil. The party’s lowest ever representation in Dáil Éireann.

…Which brings us to the independents and ‘others’.  Ten TDs would now carry these affiliations. This number is likely to double in a new Dáil. Renua and the Social Democrats will add to their numbers but not significantly, not having had a long enough lead in time. The next parliament will determine whether either party can be sustainable into the future.

…There will be a Green Party presence again in the next Dáil. Whether this will be a plural presence will depend on circumstances.

…As to what government we will have, it will involve Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. It may be a coalition. It may be a supply and confidence arrangement. There may be a rotating Taoiseach. The one certain outcome is that there will not be a natural coming together of these parties. That may take another five years

I Predict The Right, Dan Boyle, August 12, 2015

In fairness.

Rollingnews

33 thoughts on “Calling It

  1. Baz

    Man states obvious

    Time passes

    Unsurprising obvious event occurs

    I can see why the people of Cork have continually rejected Dan at the ballot box.

    1. LiamZero

      I bet you’re the sort of person who goes into galleries, points at the artworks and says “I could have done that”.

  2. classter

    ‘Renua…will add to their numbers.’

    Have the Soc Dems added to their numbers either? Depressing if not.

    1. ahjayzis

      Not, but didn’t miss out by much. For a brand new party with no cash they did really well. And this Dail they get funding, so good things ahead :o)

      1. Baz

        They didn’t really, 3 TDs managed to keep their profiles high, enjoyed TV debate time etc
        They failed to build on it, they should really call themselves Me Fein

        1. LW

          All 3 topped their polls, and Gannon ran a close race. They had a short lead in time, and Donnelly got on one debate, where he was well received nationally. I would say they did very well, and showed positive signs for future growth.

      2. Owen C

        Hmm. Went in with three seats, leave with three seats. Its a mediocre return. They’ll be praying for another election so they can try and do a more national campaign with more candidates. Spending the next three years with only 3 TD’s risks losing all of the recent momentum.

        1. Medium Sized C

          They were all elected on first count.
          Stephen Donnelly had the second highest poll in the country.

          They probably won’t be praying for an early election, because that will only result in a swing away from smaller parties to the larger parties.

          The momentum point is something that you pulled out of your hole, they weren’t even a party at the last election.

          1. Owen C

            The Greens gained 2. SF will gain 10. FF will gain 23-24 seats. The Soccies will not gain any. It is a distinct missed opportunity.

  3. Neilo

    I don’t think so. Three in the last Dáil, three in this one. Ann Marie McNally polled very strongly in the GE and may well score a seat next time around.

      1. Neilo

        I’d prefer to see the like of AM in a seat than the Citizen Smith tribute act that picked up the final one there.

  4. ollie

    4 seats in 2007
    14 seats in 2011
    26 seats in 2016.

    That’s RTE, Fine Gael, Labour, Fianna Fail and Dan Boyle with the Sinn Fein putdowns. I find it tiresome, and I don’t even vote for Sinn Fein.

    1. LW

      How do you read it as him putting them down?

      “Sinn Féin will make a further advance, perhaps an extra dozen seats”

      14 + 12 = ?

        1. LW

          They didn’t do as well as some people were expecting, they were run close for a lot of their seats, and they actually lost ground in Donegal. I don’t see how accurately calling the SF results is a put down

  5. :-Joe

    [ FG / FF ] Together at at last…

    A “right wing” majority that not many have predicted and just like the Tories in the last British elections… hmm… strange co-incidence?… I think not.

    Regardless of a majority or minority stake, if FF are a part of a coalition they will eventually collapse the government at the right time that will benefit them most before a new vote that will help their re-election.

    It will always be this way because it’s not that FF or FG are better or worse than each other, it’s because technically they are the same party and serve the same interests it’s just that one plays the role of bad party and the other the good party and we as a nation and simple-minded humans get lost in the power of the polemic and the grand old mind trick.

    It is not in their best interests, for either party, in the long run to be in power together because then a credible opposition can eventually be formed that can challenge them for an alternative government .

    The reality is that this country is fundamentally “right wing” and conservative leaning and not “centrist” or “left” leaning in the majority. Until we move politics to “centre to centre-left” or for a faster re-balance go “extreme-left” for a short period you will never have a fair and equitable improvement and boost towards a real modernised, independent, progressive government that is motivated for real change.

    You have to get the majority to shift it’s thinking away from FF / FG otherwise nothing much changes. I keep on saying it over and over, if you go into partnership with the bhoys party, you can kiss your political future and reputation goodbye. Worse still, you are trading short term illusion of power for long term possibility for change. Although, some politicians are happy to change parties or start over and try to make a comeback after 10-15 years….

    FF & FG watching from the sidelines can drive the country into the sh1tter, transfer the nations wealth to the international financial elites and they have learnt to feel confident that it doesn’t matter.

    Now they all know they can get away with it again and make a comeback within five years. The fact that this has been allowed to happen by FG is more evidence that FG is not really against them and never has been.

    We are living in an illusion of democracy and we are allowed to participate in a game where the surface facts can only be viewed through the prism of a polemic, i.e. the RED vs BLUE team…

    We’re not all that different to the ridiculous state of politics in the US but we have the deluded notion that we are. In reality the only real difference is that the US is a relatively young nation and the culture of political system has not developed the same subtlety and nuance.

    In other words, all our bullsh1t stinks exactly the same but it’s more cultured and sophisticated and not in a good way.

    blah de blah(presses red button)

    :-J

    1. Rob_G

      It’s a shame when people don’t vote the way you feel they should, its true.

      Democracy is a b*tch like that.

  6. :-Joe

    lol… ye I agree, this illusion of democracy, is a b1tch like that.

    It’s not about me or you or any one individual and what they might want from politics for themselves. If you can’t see the empirical facts for the trees that’s fine.

    Democracy doesn’t really exist in Ireland at the moment by any definition from the true sense of it’s meaning.

    Repeatedly rotating one half to the other of the same single “right-wing” party government is democracy?

    Enjoy your time in a mental wilderness.

    :-J

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