16 thoughts on “Let Them Eat Pi

  1. Dόn 'The Unstoppable Force' Pídgéόní

    So Norman doesn’t understand how economic modelling works? Poor form for a political editor

    1. classter

      Economists don’t really understand how economic modelling works, as we have discovered over the last decade.

      Its all well & good coming up with long equations with lots of subscripts and boggling the public with strident talk of regression analyses.

      Norman is correct to poke a bit of fun at the stridency & seriousness with which such modelling is discussed.

      1. Dόn 'The Unstoppable Force' Pídgéόní

        My thoughts – a lack of understanding among the public that these analyses and Markov models etc are how economic modelling is run and how our economy runs on this predictions from this and how lots of decisions are made – two, poor assumptions underlining those models, or factors not included do not mean that modelling doesn’t work, just that the model isn’t big enough – three, models are great.

        1. classter

          Hmm.. blaming the public is rather unfair. Greenspan was treated as a demigod by most economists until it all came tumbling down.

          I do wonder whether there is so much uncertainty in the variables going into these models and the relationships between these variables as to make them not worth very much. But even if that is not so, and it is possible to keep refining these models, I definitely feel that economics as a broader profession has a lot to learn in how to interpret & make practical use of the results of such models.

          And also to have a bit more humility about their results.

          1. Dόn 'The Unstoppable Force' Pídgéόní

            Most models come with very cagey conclusions because of these assumptions, at least the ones I read. Might be my field though. And yes, the public needs to learn about how these things work and people need to teach them as well. These are important decisions and shouldn’t we understand how they are made?

          1. Dόn 'The Unstoppable Force' Pídgéόní

            I’m not going to lie – it’s long and I only read the first bit. But probably right, the academic world in the US is pretty screwy but people like numbers as well. Even if they don’t understand them completely.

          2. Shane

            It’s a great piece, you should take a look at the DSGE models that have become popular, they fade out into white noise within 6 months, and then people confidently predict 5 years ahead on the back of them. Numerology, nothing but numerology

    1. sǝɯǝɯʇɐpɐq

      You should try bending over and taking Schrodinger’s quantum harmonic oscillator from behind…

      Don’t go to college.
      You won’t be better and you’ll never be the same.

      1. sǝɯǝɯʇɐpɐq

        I thought she was asleep but your mother just asked me to remind you to make her proud.
        I think that’s what she said.
        She’s very incoherent.

        You remind me of her.

  2. Dόn 'The Unstoppable Force' Pídgéόní

    The BBC has taken a very rigid line on presenting only the facts of the ref debate and while this is laudable and stops people lying, it also means that anything like this, used to predict all kinds of things in the British economy and elsewhere for years and years without comment are now not considered to be “factual” enough to be taken seriously. It’s bordering on farcical.

  3. Shane

    I love how we’re still technically a colony, as far as the treasury department is concerned.

    Also this is an attempt to estimate the parameters that the authors believe have an effect upon foreign direct investment (historically), there’s nothing in A5 that pertains to Brexit – there’s an emu variable, but no EU/EEA/EUTRADEAGREEMENT/RESTOFWORLD variable

    I’m disappointed in Norman, any grad school level politics course would have covered linear regression (how ever much they’re worth, and I don’t think very much is the answer)

    1. sǝɯǝɯʇɐpɐq

      @Shane;
      I love how we’re still technically a colony, as far as the treasury department is concerned.

      No you don’t.
      Robots cannot ‘love’.
      You don’t know what it means.

  4. DaithiG

    The last part of those equations looks like someone is adding an eejit.

    Plenty of those around, wha????

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