Secretary of State for Northern Ireland Theresa Villiers and Taoiseach Enda Kenny at the British-Irish Council (BIC) Summit, Dublin Castle last month; Today’s Irish Independent front page.
Just us so.
A united Ireland, you say?
Slugger O’Toole writes:
Does anybody seriously think that a 56 % majority in favour of Remain on a 63% turnout translates into majority support for a united Ireland? That Northern Ireland outside the EU will produce “a seismic shift?”
“Europe” just isn’t that important in the North, unless it’s exploited as a new tune on the nationalist drum.
So the question the Irish have to answer now is: are you serious?
…If you don’t like the British negotiating position going into the Article 50 process, will you ask the British government to regard the Remain vote which included a fair minority of unionists as evidence which favours a border poll? Do you think the British would agree?
Anyone?
”’Europe” just isn’t that important in the north.’ Hmm except 63% of them bothered to vote, that is a massive turnout by anyone’s standards.
It’s regrettable that just short 2/3 of the population is considered a good turnout all the same
+ 1/3
It is a small turnout for such a monumental decision.
I guess many nationalists felt a bit ambivalent about voting about the status of the UK
Leave the north where it is. Stuck in the 80s up there.
Thanks.
+1
1880’s
+26
no need for a united Ireland. A dream for the daft!
1680’s.
It’s your right to be partitionist, though it contributes to a pattern of selfishness towards fellow Irish citizens which has hamstrung the southern state in healthcare & other governance
Righto – you can pay my share of the £11bn per annum it would cost to keep Northern Ireland afloat, given as how you are so keen on the idea.
David McWilliams spoke in Belfast a few weeks ago, re: Brexit.
He said that Irish unity is definitely affordable, & the 26 Co. establishmment know it, & that the mantra that it’s not is “their Koran, Torah, Bible” for selfish political reasons.
Also – interesting in the FT – https://next.ft.com/content/457df810-f043-11e5-9f20-c3a047354386
Irish unity would cost the equivalent of a new bank bailout about every 6 years. Certainly within the realm of affordability, but I doubt you could convince a majority of the population that it was worth the cost.
That is assuming it would cost what it does now.
There are all sorts of reasons why it would cost less.
Do people ever read the stuff they link to? The opening paragraphs explain exactly why the Republic should have no interest in this.
“The combined economies of Northern Ireland and the Republic could grow by more than €30bn if Ireland reunified, with the bulk of the benefits accruing north of the border, according to a highly speculative new report.”
“The report is based on a set of assumptions, including that Northern Ireland would adopt the euro and that Dublin would pick up the tab for the roughly £10bn of fiscal transfers the province receives each year from the UK government.”
Note:
30bn growth will benefit the NI economy no ROI,
The report is highly speculative
The North would cost the Republic 10bn
Do we all get to opt out of paying tax for things we don’t like?
This isn’t someone cribbing about paying for schools when they’ve no kids. Annexing 6 additional counties is discretionary – we all have a right to argue the costs outweight the benefits and for our country not to be changed beyond all recognition – that’s democracy.
Sure we do. ‘You pay for it then’ is not the way to do that though. And we also get to call out fatuous arguments in a democracy as well, such as the above. Sure I’ve no use for the northside luas. They can all get the bus or the train on the maynooth line. I could claim that’s “discretionary’ as well. If I argued with someone from Cabra that they can just pay for it then if they want it, I’d be a bit of a member and wpuld expect a response in kind.
Remind me what your position as regards water charges was again…
It doesn’t make someone a me-feiner that they do not wish to reduce their own standard of living for a poltical goal.
A Luas line generally comes with a cost benefit analysis – You’ve no use for a northside Luas, that’s not the same as someone else not wanting sectarian violence and societal instability.
“Remind me what your position as regards water charges was again…”
That while the idea of water charges in itself isn’t necessarily a bad one, introducing them during one of the worst periods of recession ever was unfair and politically unwise and so should be paid for by general taxation for the forseeable. Why?
“You’ve no use for a northside Luas, that’s not the same as someone else not wanting sectarian violence and societal instability.”
Ok. “You pay for it” has nothing to do with violence and societal instability.
Actually, Rob, do you want to pay my water bill as you’re “so keen on the idea”?
Taking a hit in living standards for the foreseeable future for the political wetdream of republicans is – there would be the equivalent of a unification tax. It’s legitimate for your average punter to ask “what’s in it for me” other than more green on a map.
Again, my issue was with the fatuous nature of telling someone they can just pay for the thing “you” don’t want, not the idea of a rational cost to benefit argument.
Keep that guff for your ard fheis
80
+1
Inda playing with fire
No inda followed Mehole’s lead because they both know what is going to happen if they don’t at least appear to play hard ball.
Negotiating tactic.
Enda – Make sure there is no hard border & we’ll take NI off you at some stage.
UK – no problem with that. 9bn extra for the NHS.
*taps Armagh with foot*
How much are y’askin ?
Buy 5, get one free :-)
Rather apt so that the new Secretary of State for Northern Ireland is BrokenShire
I’m just looking forward to seeing this story being run on the Daily Mail – comments will be gas
Once again the Gombeen Kenny talks before he thinks or runs his fantasies past any real political or economic consultant. Sure all them bonfire lads burning the Irish flags and the lads with the bowler hats will fall into line once we they know they’ll be in the EU again.
He does seem to have a habit of unfortunate solo runs.
He is responding to Martin who outflanked him on the topic.
Disgruntled religious zealots with chips on both shoulders…Can we not just declare it indpeendent and offer the presidency to Erdogan..
How about a United Ireland? A million more taxpayers, what’s the worst that could happen? (the 18% of the island’s population who think they are English can carry on with fetishising WWI and goading their neighbours, nobody will care (see rossknowlagh in Donegal, it is an oddity, baffling to tourists but nobody really cares)
“what’s the worst that could happen?” – another quarter of a century of violence.
The 9bn a year deficit up North is a pretty serious guaranteed ‘worst that can happen’, nevermind any potential sectarian violence.
I can’t see a large number of people in Ireland voting in favour of a union once it’s explained to them it will cost them massively financially to take on the Nordies and their bankrupt economy.
But will a broken Brexited Britain be able to afford to keep subventing Northern Ireland anyway?
That’s before you come to the part where we have to abolish the constitution, the flag, the anthem and basically start from scratch with a new 32 county state. It’d mean the abolition of the North and the Republic for it to be acceptable to both sides. It’s the only way to do it so the loyalists don’t come off as completely defeated and absorbed.
Which oddly enough is the only part of it that excites me – starting over, the second republic. But nationalists might be sore about it.
By nationalism I assume you mean ALL the political parties in the North because they all are to a greater or lesser degree. The biggest nationalists in the true sense are of course the Loyalists, some of which would not look out of place in a BNP or NF rally. In fact some do.
The 9bn is partly the case because NI is not viable as a separate state & has to be propped up as a funny, satellite state. That would not be the same case in a united Ireland.
What do you do on day one when a quarter of their workforce is made redundant from the UK Public Service?
A lot of the UK social security claims are now processed in NI. If UK no longer exists then there is no economic reason why England would not want to avail of this low cost skilled work force as an outsource.
Further more, given the cost differential between the north and south state sectors, it is likely that more not less people would be employed by the state in what was then NI.
This is the Conservative Party you’re dealing with. Persuade them to privatise the six counties, and then bid for the franchise. Easy peasy.
Ha!
Ooooh, we could then sublet it to Denis O’Brien and pay him to run it for us ^_^
Whatever about the people in the North want, would a majority of people in the South vote for this?
As we’ve learned in the Brexit yoke, people will vote with emotion over facts. It’ll only come to a vote when the mood has shifted, a lot. But actually having a vote, people might just go, ah feck it & go for it.
Most polls indiciate yes.
I know I would.
How about we vote to join the North instead of them joining the South. That’ll fool those Sandy Row knuckle draggers.
Apparently a group from Trinity who wanted the ROI to rejoin the commonwealth traveled to Portadown to meet the Garvaghy free Orange men. Said group were all rather eccentric in their appearance (read gay) so another tense and somewhat WTF standoff commenced.
Would this mean we’d have members of the DUP in the Dáil?
Think I’ll pass.
and more SFeiners. all the more reason to pass!
Presumably (eventually) we’d end up with more normal politics.
On both sides of the current border.
Ireland should be leaving the rotting corpse of the EU as soon as possible.
Rejoining the Commonwealth should be the real priority.
Cos that’s where the future is!
In fairness our establishment values would line up more closely with Zimbabwe than Germany…
Why would we possibly rejoin the Commonwealth?
An ineffective talking shop which exists as a sop to those sorts of English people who voted for Brexit so they can feel that the Empire never faded.
King enda all know from the history of this isle how kings ended.
Indeed how the kings ruled this isle.
More of the same.
The first thing to happen will be a referendum. If the majority vote is in favour then that sets in place a chain of events. No one knows when but no one knows what state NI will be in by then either. Who would have ever dreamt that Ian Paisley Jnr. would now be advocating that his people apply for Irish passports?
So what is the alternative? Irish Army and Guards policing the border? And make no mistake but they will have to because it becomes the frontier of the EU. And it won’t be like the last time, it will be much stricter. SF will benefit hugely from this, probably becoming the largest party in ROI. That is not being “exploited as a new tune on the nationalist drum”, it is just common sense.
If Slugger is going to tackle this issue then at least try to do it with some balance. Like it or not, things have changed and if Britain does not find a way out of this Brexit mess then Ireland WILL be roped into it. A hard border, the likes of which has never been seen before, is going to cause an earthquake in Irish politics.
they still doing that Green Card lottery up on Elgin Road?
Here’s a set of screnarios that could play out:
UK Tories finally get their negotiating act together & trigger article 50 to start Brexit talks in 2017.
Scotland, realising that this is not the UK they voted for, opt to have a second independence referendum, and it includes desire to stay in EU, 2017.
NI now surrounded by EU to their South & East. 2019
As a result of UK economic slowdown & Tories being, well, Tories, they start cuting the subvention anyway. In progress 2016.
NI needs to trade & travel freely with closest neighbours. England doesn’t give a toss. But using the North-South bodies NI leverages their connections to put forawrd their unique status. Also use the British-Irish council as well.
Rise of English nationalism in England (Wales doesn’t count). They want rid of NI.
So from 2019 onwards, NI surrounded by EU, disowned by England, economically squeezed, starts to take a fresh look at relationships.
Big if, IF this state treated unionists like adults, took their economic concerns seriously, trust could be built up.
About 2022 unity vote put forward.
Its been such a weird year in poliitcs, anything could happen.
except most of that. next.
Ms. Villiers is a fine thing though
Nationalist: Hey, Mr Loyalist, you know that flag you were burning last week on your bonfire?
Loyalist: Yeah I know it (spits).
Nationalist: Well, 51% of your fellow Northern Irelanders have just decided that you are now going to be a citizen under that flag.
Loyalist: You think so?
Nationalist: Well, yes. Democracy dictates that you are now a citizen of the Republic of Ireland. Your kids will be educated by the State system, will learn Gaelic and will be outnumbered by Catholics. Your national day will be St Patricks Day and the 12th July will just be another day.
Loyalist: You think so?
I am a loyalist because I live in and believe in a republic?
Coming events cast their shadow, within the space of 15 years the unionist majority
is gone and they know it, why did Paisley go into the NI administration with Sinn Fein
currently the Nationalist and Unionist population are almost level, the British will have
long since pulled the subvention and the same applies to Scotland, the British exit
from the strangle hold of Brussells has speeded up the process, when the Farmers
in the North have no EU single payment or subsidy from England either by 2019, it will be interesting to see what they will vote for……money talks, the political establishment in London want rid of the North and Scotland, what has happend
is that English Nationalism has asserted itself in the last few weeks after years
of slumber, and it will continue, they only surprise is that it had not happened years
ago.
Interesting that on the prod side, most farmers would be DUP supporters and yet they voted Leave. There has been vague mention of the UK Government covering the cost of EU subsidies but no figures.
For both historical and proximity reasons, Scotland and NI are very connected. If Scotland leave the UK, the Unionists will have a serious identity crisis because outside of geography there will be no Britain, no Union Jack even so their particular brand of nationalism will no longer exist.
Just a point on NI. Jim Molyneux who was the UUP leader until 1995 said that the most destabilising thing that could happen to NI was peace and until the Good Friday agreement, most of NI was a military based economy. Twenty years later it has still not recovered and the British government is still footing the bill. The real problem is that there will be no British government anymore so it is anyone’s guess as to what happens then.
google “belfast bonfires”. when you have done that then decide if you want anything to do with “that lot”.