What Are the Chances?


A survey by the Central Bank of 276 credit unions found that the draws were often performed by staff who were eligible to enter without independent supervision.

It found that in 30 per cent of these institutions, prizes were won by either staff or directors over a two-and-a-half-year period to March 2017.

The entry price for such competitions is usually around €100, but some members were entered without their consent and the money deducted from their accounts.

The Central Bank report said: “Draws were conducted by staff, who were eligible to enter the draw, with no independent oversight.

The bank said the practice of individual credit unions operating draws and allowing staff to enter “poses a reputational risk” to the institutions.

It added: “The survey results showed that the majority of credit unions allowed staff and directors to enter the prize draws.

Central Bank credit union probe finds almost one third of cars or cash offered in competitions were won by either staff or directors (The Irish Sun)

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33 thoughts on “What Are the Chances?

  1. bisted

    …just listening to Charlie Weston on the radio about this…shocking…would give you the pip…

  2. Jake38

    Whatever crookery was going on here (and I think we all know) there is actually a difference between..
    ..”30% of prize draws for cars at Irish credit unions were won by either staff or directors…”
    “..in 30 per cent of these institutions, prizes were won by either staff or directors..”
    Which is it? Or is it both?

    1. Geansai

      Exactly. The way it’s being reported is potentially very misleading.

      All the same, people involved in the running of a competition or draw should never be allowed enter the competition or draw. That’s just common good practice.

      1. b

        classic broadsheet readers – multiple posts giving out about government spin but a story comes along with a headline they like and it’s gobbled up and swallowed down gratefully

        the story is bad but not near half as bad for the CU’s as it reads

    1. Truth in the News

      Yes they are, its job of Local Government Auditor to establish the facts, and if its established that
      the expenditure was unwarranted, then those responsible can be surcharged.

      1. Otis Blue

        Those audits are rudimentary, formulaic and limited in scope at best. Feel free to cite examples of instances where poor practice – or worse – has been made good and those responsible held to account/or sanctioned.

    1. Cian

      No. we are far from the most dishonest nation.
      There are, however, dishonest individuals in this nation.

      1. Lilly

        Okay, let me rephrase. Have we a higher proportion of dishonest individuals here than elsewhere?

        1. Junkface

          In the financial world YES! Irish bankers and financiers are more likely to steal from their customers or bend rules for their own enrichment. Facts and repeated controversies have proven this to be true.

          1. Junkface

            More likely than other EU countries like France, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands …etc

  3. b

    figure seems amazing, though i saw this post from Burgess on AAM (loathe as a I to cite him). Either way, directors should just not be allowed to enter

    “128 credit unions had draws over the period
    Assuming they had monthly draws, that would be 128 x 30 months or 3,840 draws.
    Staff and directors in 30% of 128 credit unions won prizes – so that would be 38 prizes in total (assuming only one win in each credit union.)

    So the right summary would be c.1% of prizes were won by credit union staff and directors?

    All the draws are probably not monthly.
    In some Credit Unions, the staff probably won more than once.
    In 15% of Credit Unions, the staff were not allowed enter.

    But 1% is closer to the 30% reported in the Irish Times and elsewhere.”

  4. McBlurgle

    The last raffle I was at was very interesting because the people who ran the raffle actually won it.
    So it’s not unusual for that to happen now and again.

  5. Not On Your Nelly

    I love this island.

    Life is short, get that gravy.

    But make sure to sit up the front in mass, optics.

    1. Lilly

      Ah come on. No one goes to mass any more. Engaged in Charity is maybe the contemporary equivalent.

  6. qwerty123

    the last time I was at a raffle, the person running it actually won the raffle, so that type of thing is not uncommon

  7. Jonjo

    The tabloids were saying 30% of cars were won by staff and this guy tweeted that too. This is just incorrect. Staff in 30% of Credit Unions won prizes. Huge difference but not as good for clicks.

    1. Cian

      it depends on the numbers.
      If each draw has 3000 people, and 1 is a staff member, then the odds are 3000:1 that the staff member will win.
      If you run 12 a year, then the odds are 250:1 that the staff member will win once in the year.
      If you run it for 2.5 years, then the odds are 100:1 that the staff member will win once in the 30 months.
      If you have 276 credit unions (and each has 1 staff member out of 3000 members) then the odds are 1:3 that any staff member will win once in the 30 months. (or even-odds that 3 prizes will be won in 30 months)

      1. Jasper

        ‘If you run it for 2.5 years, then the odds are 100:1 that the staff member will win once in the 30 months’

        Somebody correct me if I’m mistaken but I’m pretty certain that is not how odds are calculated

        1. Cian

          if nobody corrects will you accept my calculations? ;-)

          How about: if you double your attempts – you halve your chances?
          1 try = 3000/1
          2 try = 1500/1
          4 try = 750/1
          8 try = 375/1
          16 try = 187.5/1
          32 try = 93.75/1

          (or I calculated that 30 = 100:1)

  8. GiggidyGoo

    Club lottery draws have been known to take place up the side of a mountain in a car. Especially when it’s a big jackpot.

  9. Truth in the News

    The Credit Unions were set up here as a result of the trojan work done by the Late Nora Herlihy some 60
    odd years ago, their purpose is to lend money to their members at reasonable rates, however a trend has
    developed that a lot of the Credit Unions are charging high rates of interest up to 12 %, while paying their members almost nil dividends (interest) on the funds they have deposited.
    Their job is not to run draws for this that or the other and its time the League of Credit Unions and Financial
    Regulatior and by no means least the membership took action.
    The Central Bank is out to curtail the work of the Unions and self inflicted wounds are of little help.
    The idea of the common bond needs developing further into housing, energy and agricultural credit and
    development Unions….and not running silly draws for cars.

  10. david

    Great little country
    lets have a tribunal where at taxpayers expence reputations can all be cleaned and end up squekey clean

Comments are closed.

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