46 thoughts on “De Tuesday Papers

    1. Cranky Pants

      Trump with his 10s of 1000s of people at rallies.

      Obama with his 100s.

      98% chance of winning.

      Blue wave for sure.

      (((They thought she would never lose.)))

      1. edalicious

        I’m open to correction on this but I believe the results in 2016 fell within 538’s predictions but they considered it to be an improbable outcome. So not wrong, per se. It’s like a bookie saying a horse has a 1 in 6 chance of winning; if the horse wins, the bookie wasn’t wrong, it just landed on the 1 in 6 chance that they predicted.

        1. Listrade

          100% correct. There are different models on 538, national and state and they were clear that while the national had it as a Dem win, the state ones painted a different picture. Which showed to be true at the polls with Popular Vote vs Electoral College.

          538 also showed that the polls swung away from Dem following the second Comey letter (after swinging significantly to Dem following “Grab ’em by the…”) and stated this moved the polls to within a margin of error.

          Nate Silver stated that the chance of Trump winning was the same odds as the Cubs winning the world series. Which indeed they did shortly after that statement.

          No model is perfect on a system of imperfect polls, but the 538 one seems to be more robust in how it interprets the data.

        1. Increasing Displacement

          One would hope not…given it’s taxpayers money…we’ve a right to know where every euro went

          Would be interesting to have a trial done on a section of the HSE for example, run it as a private business for 6 months by an external entity, see how they lean it what’s actually required.
          I’d imagine there’s more fat than meat.

  1. Shayna

    The Poppy thing seems to spill over – big time. James McClean, a soccer player for Stoke, formerly Derry City refused to wear a poppy during a match at the weekend. He has since suffered abuse that he likens to Neil Lennon’s bullet in his mail abuse. It’s interesting that the British, English, or whatever FA have “reprimanded” him for his use of a four letter word beginning with “C” on his reaction to his abuse on his social media platforms rather than address the issue, “The War To End All Wars” has nothing to do with me, an Irish Catholic.

    1. Ollie Cromwell

      Actually what the FA have done is warn McClean about his use of bad language on social media.
      It’s what they do to any player or manager in the same situation.They have a certain responsibility.
      Whether you agree with them or not it’s designed to avoid bring the game into disrepute.
      It has nothing to do with his not wearing the Poppy.And the FA can do nothing to ” address the issue ” of his abuse on social media.But they can stop him doing it.
      Think of it as Broadsheet censoring swear words in yesterday’s annual Poppy wind-up.
      There you go.

          1. Brother Barnabas

            now that’s the spirit!

            more of this – and no more of yesterday’s het up charger, all fractious and testy

      1. Shayna

        I think it may have been a “Back-door” reprimand. The fact that he was booed off the pitch – purely because of the lack of poppy, the only thing that the FA could do as reaction was thus. Also, thanks for explaining via a simile, I wouldn’t have understood otherwise, what I was thinking.

        1. Ollie Cromwell

          A back-door reprimand for what ?
          It’s a warning about his use of language on social media.
          Nothing more,nothing less.
          Unless you think there’s some sort of conspiracy going on.

          1. Shayna

            I don’t have a useful simile – a guy in public view didn’t wear a poppy, because of his heritage, reacted as do most millenials on social media. No conspiracy, he just went with his convictions is all.

          2. rotide

            He hasn’t worn a poppy for the last 5 years or so and it’s caused a storm every year. The difference this year was the fracas after the match the other day and him calling some of his fanbase c-words and of course calling himself a proud fenian

  2. SOQ

    US mid terms. Democrats set to take senate? It would be the mother of all shocks if they took congress as well of course. All depends on which base mobilises better but first time voting is expected to surge and a very high general turnout is predicted.

        1. SOQ

          It would be a brave man or woman to call this one but a red wave is the most unlikely result. Of course Facebook blocking the Russians is a good start.

          1. Cranky Pants

            muh Russia.

            Haven’t heard that one in a while.

            What ever happened to ol’ Mueller?

            Last I head were rumours he was day-drinking in DC.

    1. edalicious

      Think it’s the other way around, good odds on Dems taking house of reps but the Senate will probably stay with the Reps.

  3. giggidygoo

    Well, we’ve known it all along. Well flagged here. FG, Varadkar, Kenny, Bilderberg Coveney, Noonan had sold us out years ago. Remember the podium? Remember the ‘bulletin proof’ backstop.? Remember the spoofers here who discounted with vile, any suggestion that Varadkar and the boys were lying.
    Not even a year after the podium, no podium, podium event, and Varadkar finally has to come clean. We are at stage 1 now.
    Makes you wonder how much of our sovereign identity has been actually given away from these boys. And no-one is keeping an eye of Daffy either. The maths genius Cardiff no doubt aiding and abetting.

    1. ReproButina

      Nothing has changed. The British Taoiseach is further than ever from agreeing a temporary customs arrangement that covers the entire UK. The backstop remains exactly what was agreed last December.

      1. Ollie Cromwell

        Actually you’re wrong.
        A Northern Ireland-specific backdrop is contrary to what the EU agreed to in last December’s Joint Report.
        I know you haven’t read it but have a look at Paragraph 50.
        It spells it out quite clearly.

        1. ReproButina

          You’re cherry picking a single paragraph and interpreting it out of context to suit your argument. Paragraphs 43 and 49 rule out a hard border. Paragraph 49 also commits the UK to “maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the protection of the 1998 agreement.” – That’s the backstop.

          Paragraph 50 is the UK commitment not to introduce new regulatory barriers between NI and the rest of the UK in the absence of agreed EU UK trade deals or a better solution than the backstop. This is to prevent the UK trying to circumvent the backstop.

          1. Ollie Cromwell

            And the EU signed up to it.
            It is only since then that they have insisted on a NI-specific backstop.
            It’s a negotiating ploy designed to keep the UK in custom’s union and one which Ireland has acquiesed to.
            That’s Varadkar’s choice but Ireland will pay a heavy price if his showboating results in no deal.
            May will struggle to get her fudge through Cabinet today and even if she does it will never pass through the Commons.

          2. ReproButina

            What are you talking about? The NI specific backstop was part of the negotiations, was signed up to by the UK and EU and is clearly recorded in the joint report. This has been the situation for the past 11 months and the NI backstop has been the sticking point since then.

            The British Taoiseach tried to get around it by extending it to cover all of the UK and the EU rejected that proposal three times. Now she’s trying again with a revised version but the technical documents covering her proposal are a week late and the delay is making a November summit incredibly unlikely.

  4. Ollie Cromwell

    Interesting news from the States.
    A record 36 million people have voted early in the midterms and early turnout is high as polling stations open.
    The Republicans could be in trouble.

    1. Nigel

      It’s nothing compared to the trouble they’d be in if they didn’t have voter suppression or gerrymandering.

    2. Johnny

      I’m waiting for SOQ’s take in it,as one the unpaid volunteers on here,who gracefully gives his time free,to engage in intellectual debate…

      That blue wave is now a tsunami – polling stations were packed,lots long lines,chaos reported in Houston with Lying Teds seat on the line .House of Represenatiives or congress as it’s also know (haha) gone to D’s,Senate still in play,moving vans pulling up to take many Republicans out off various state governors mansions,long held by Republicans.

      Great mood/energy in NY,there’s a certain sense of fook Trump in the air,bringing Hannity on stage last night reeked of desperation-sad:)

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