From top: Labour candidate Senator Ivana Bacik (back to camera) and supporters celebrating her election as TD in the Dublin Bay South by-election at the RDS count centre last Friday Eamonn Kelly
Dublin Bay South By-Election.
They say that by-elections don’t tell you much, but that certainly has not been the response of the various parties involved in the Dublin Bay South by-election. Fianna Fáil for instance were suitably informed by the event to begin quietly speculating about a new leader and rebranding the party as a genuine republican party, rather than the pallid acquiescent neo-liberals they’ve become in coalition with Fine Gael.
Fianna Fáil’s first preference vote share dropped from 14% to 6%, which certainly tells you plenty, and it certainly fired up Barry Cowen enough to write a letter calling for a meeting of the Parliamentary Party. What emerged from Cowen was that the Fianna Fáil inquest as to what went wrong in the 2020 election is still pending.
It is as if there is a profound denial at play in the party, an ignore it and it might go away type of thing. But the by-election has shoved it right back in their faces again. Despite Micheál Martin being taoiseach, the party appears to be sliding inexorably into irrelevance.
Leo’s Losses
The by-election also made it clear that Leo Varadkar’s strategy in dropping Kate O’Connell for James Geoghegan was also the wrong decision, while the poor result also had the effect of shining a less-than-flattering light on Leo Varadkar’s performance as party leader. As the Examiner reported:
“Since he was named Fine Gael leader, he has lost five by-elections and 12 seats in a general election.”
While the Fine Gael party may be able to forgive losses to others, such as tens of thousands of homeless people; children’s lives stunted in hotel accommodation; political attacks on the poor, and policies that lock young people out of the property market and into their parent’s homes, they’re unlikely to turn the same blind eye to Leo’s electoral losses.
It was instructive too to note that James Geoghegan, despite virtually zero political experience, apart from two years on the local council and a short apprenticeship lobbying for the tobacco industry, (“Smokin’” Jim Geoghegan?) he nevertheless easily took 7,000+ first count votes on the basis of party affiliation alone. This was less of a question of what is the man made of, and more of a question of who does he know? Which is as good an illustration as you’re likely to get as to how things actually work in Ireland.
The Others
Labour of course were the beneficiaries of Leo’s bumbling, and we can only hope that Ivana Bacik has landed with her centre-left side up and not her FG-inspired right side up, and will add some weight to the growing left alliance, rather than to the shrinking centre-right coalition.
As for the Greens, that limp lettuce of a leader, Ryan, came on TV after the result to complacently announce that the present government still has four more years of life left in it. He was taking the view that by-elections tell us nothing and there was nothing to worry about; that all is stable on planet Ryan.
Like the environment he also seems extraordinarily casual about, given that we only recently had 12 years to stop the melt, the government he now so sleepily supports also appears to be shrinking by the day. This is a man in for a rude awakening, likely to be on his bike sooner rather than later.
Sinn Féin’s role in the by-election was as scary monster. As Lynn Boylan gathered in almost 16% of first preference votes in Garret Fitzgerald’s old constituency, Sinn Féin scared Fine Gael into panicking on election day, begging on twitter for more people to come out and vote. SF’s performance also had a scary effect on Fianna Fáil, frightening the party into looking seriously at the concept of republicanism for the first time on over half a century, despite the word being their brand all this time.
Lazy Voters
The by-election also had the effect of shining a light on a particularly privileged sample of the electorate. With a poor turnout of only just below 35%, in contrast to over 62% in the general election of 2020, which took place in the depths of winter, the electorate in Dublin Bay South were the biggest let down of the entire event, given the importance of this by-election, the focus that was on this constituency and the amount of campaigning that took place by all parties and independents.
This being the Fine Gael heartland, this may indicate where Fine Gael complacency in social policy comes from. There was no rain, no hazardous conditions. It was just a dismal expression of political carelessness. The irony is that if they had come out, they might have elected Geoghegan. So, thank God on this occasion for leafy complacency.
Finally
Far from being a meaningless side-show, this particular by-election had plenty of drama, produced lots of now unavoidable and unpalatable truths for all concerned, and for entertainment value featured yet another Irish academic apparently veering off onto the wild side, this time in the shape of Prof Dolores Cahill laying siege to the count centre without a virus mask.
Finally, England footbal team last night tried to do an Ireland by holding onto an early one-nil lead over Italy, but came badly unstuck. You need a Paul McGrath and a Packie Bonner if you want to be attempting that kind of thing. Still, it was sad to see them go down. They seemed strangely helpless in the end. It was like they didn’t go for it and chose to get tired instead. As if they believed themselves fated to lose. Maybe that’s what a toxic tabloid press and a cruel hooligan element among your supporters does for you.
Eamonn Kelly is a freelance Writer and Playwright.
Earlier: Derek Mooney: A By-Election review For Fianna Fáil
Previously: Eamonn Kelly on Broadsheet
