SDLP leader Colum Eastwood has arrived at Magherafelt. Says his predictions haven’t changed – thinks Sinn Fein will become the largest party and DUP won’t form an Executive post election @rtenews pic.twitter.com/PV4PLawrOI
— Una Kelly (@UnaKelly3) May 6, 2022
This morning/afternoon.
Northern Ireland.
Pause.
FIGHT!
Sinn Fein Eyes Historic Election Win {Reuters)
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His position has changed. Yesterday he was sneering at the idea of SF becoming FM.
I have no time for either him nor the Alliance waddler since the leper passes.
Eoghan Harris must be turning purple.
Isn’t that Eoghan’s default colour, Sara?
Red’s his default. Purple’s his Barbara Pim is super-pissed go to.
‘Our revenge will be the laughter of our children’.
who’s laughing now,LOL.
I think he’s right, the main party of Unionism will refuse to be a minority in the executive. They will do all they can to frustrate things and return to some sort of direct rule from Westminster.
This election is interesting because it marks a permanent change in the status quo. With the demographics being what they are, of voting age nationalists outnumbering voting age Unionists for the first time. And because of the higher birth rates amongst nationalists, as well as inwards immigration unionists are going to make up a much smaller percentage of the population than they once did.
With voting be as tribal as it is, it is quite possible that we will never see a Unionist first Minister again.
Still a successful border poll is in my opinion a long way off. There are plenty of nationalists that see the broken health and public service systems down here, crippling national debt and are aware of the fact that Westminster bonds the 8 billion deficit in northern irish spending. It will be hard to get them to jump ship on this things vastly improve down here.
Even so, we live in interesting times.
Of course if it is the case that the reason for Sinn Féin’s elevation to largest party is due to the DUP’s decrease in voter share, you can be certain that the Unionists will cobble together some sort of alliance going forward. IMO there are three factors which will mark NI’s future.
The first is that the Catholics continue to outbreed the Protestants and that continues to feed into the electoral register. The second is that the protestants continue to migrate to the mainland- their words- especially the third level Uni people, who never come back.
But another factor may be how the republic preforms economically. If there is a serious crash for example, Catholics may be the largest group but the overall majority may still not want to join. And given the state of health care and housing even now, the penny whistle could very easily be packed away in favour of the status quo.
There is a difference between equality within NI and a United Ireland being my point.
‘The first is that the Catholics continue to outbreed the Protestants’
Not arguing or disagreeing, SOQ, just, NI politics are so WEIRD.
First count is now over in all constituencies, SF have got 29% of the vote.
As I write, 24 Assembly members have been elected – 16 of them are SF, which points to marvellous vote management.
It must be a huge psychological blow to any unionist following the count to see one SF member after another being declared while the unionists mostly have to wait their turn, and hope sufficient transfers make their way through the system.
I think we can safely say that the demographic process has kicked in with a vengeance, and owing to the older age profile of the PUL population, it is likely that their vote share will continue to fall into the future.
In other words, SF have got a larger percentage than the DUP did last time out. So even if the DUP had marked time, SF would be ahead of them, which is quite a feat as everyone was forecasting a decrease in SF’s vote.
Overall, the three (main) unionist parties are down 3.3%.
SF & SDLP combined are down 1.8%.
There is good news for the unionists though – they have taken 40.1% of the vote, while SF & SDLP together only managed 38.1%. So they’re still ahead overall – that’s something, I suppose!
Though when you add in Alliance, the Greens and various groupuscules like Aontú and PBP, along with Nat independents, the pro-protocol vote lies in the region of 55%.
The future beckons!
Kevin Myers is probably in an ambulance now. I’ll see a United Ireland in my own time. Great news.
Given your bullying of people on this site Sara- I am surprised you are not now employing private security.
I do have a bodyguard. Every time someone tries to threaten me I get Colette Colfer to recite her poetry. It’s 100% effective.
Better than mace I hear
Far better than mace, and the damage it causes is long lasting. Rapping grandma, take it away: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFbHjBg8eVM
The Alliance Party should have ate more into the centralist vote- a bit like when Naomi chomped her way towards demanding vaccine passports?