Oh.
Brian writes:
And what about Cyprus?
Oh.
Brian writes:
And what about Cyprus?
It’s been upgraded to a Brazilian wax, apparently.
Sido writes:
“You recall the Cyprus haircut on bank deposits over €100,000. Reading between the lines, there was some small print, a lot of people missed at the time. The actual haircut was 37.5% with a further 22.5% of deposits “reserved as a buffer”. Seemingly, the Trioka and the Cyprus Finance Ministry appear to be converging on a figure of 47.5%. Zero Hedge, predicts the figure to rise to 60% at the end of the year, as the train hits the buffers.”
Ouch.
Previously: The Slow Death Of The European Project
Cyprus, The Principal And Labour’s Principles
Pic: Komonews
The transcript of the first part of yesterday’s extraordinary exchange between Pat Kenny and Ciaran Lynch (above), Labour TD, over the Cyprus deal.
During the interview Lynch quotes economist Paul Krugman.
Not sure if they’re on the same page, to be fair.
Pat Kenny: “yesterday, Minister Simon Coveney assured the Dáil yesterday that there would be no Cypriot-style raid on bank savings here. But, the question: why, if we hold the presidency of the EU at the moment that the deal ever get past the drafting stage? Well, joining me now is the chairman of the Oireachtas finance committee, Labour TD Ciaran Lynch.
Ciaran Lynch: “Good morning”
Kenny: “Ciaran, there was a bit of consternation because the statement from the Irish government at the time was, this is the original deal that was soundly rejected by the Cypriot parliament:’This is a good deal for Cyprus and a good deal for the Eurozone’.”
Lynch: “Well, what happened on Saturday morning when the Irish government made that announcement, Pat. Is that we were welcoming that an agreement appeared to have been reached and that the Cypriot parliament was sitting down to actually work out the finer detail of it, and the agreement of the Irish government was issued in that context. And I would hope, and I suppose that everyone else would hope that, over the coming days we will see a resolution…
Kenny: “Hang on. The point I’m making is that the Irish government’s statement was: “This was a positive development for Cyprus, the Eurozone as a whole and Ireland.” Now this was raiding people’s personal savings. I mean a ‘smash and grab’ of unprecedented proportions. And the Irish Government said ‘this was good for Cyprus, and good for the Eurozone, and good for Ireland’. I mean…like…shocking.”
Lynch: “The first thing to put on the record is that the suggestion and the proposal to put a levy on any deposits in the Cypriot banks is actually something that came from the Cypriot parliament itself. And that needs to be made very, very clear. The structure of what’s actually being proposed here was in two parts. There’s a €10billion package that is coming through Europe and there’s a €6.5billion package that has to be put together by the Cypriot government. Now the issue here is that the EU and the IMF are being very, very clear. They’ve been granted the €10billion to Cyprus, that if the sum was to be increased beyond that, the loan would actually become unsustainable and that would have huge…”
Kenny: “Yeah. The Cypriots had to find the balance of the money.”
Lynch: “Correct.”
Kenny: “But we have Herr Schauble saying, and the Germans are quite outspoken in certain matters and he was outspoken here. He was the one saying: ‘Hang on a second. You can’t go doing this. There was a €100,000 guarantee. This is not a good idea.’ He was the one who spotted contagion and everyone else seemed to give it the nod.
Lynch: “Well, the €100,000 guarantee remains in place and remains in place across every Euro member state, and certainly remains in place here in Ireland. But what we have to look at in the Cypriot government.”
Kenny: “No, hold on, hang on, tell me what you mean by a guarantee. A guarantee for €100,000 seems to me to be sacrosanct if it is a guarantee. Otherwise it’s not a guarantee at all.”
Lynch:“What the guarantee means is if the bank actually collapses in the morning, and the bank is there no longer, that the State will actually guarantee that’s safe or that €100,000 that they have in an account will actually…”
Kenny: “So in the meantime, hang on a second. So, you go along with this principle. Bank of Ireland are not, eh, you know, they’re trading, they don’t seem to be in any danger, AIB the same. And because they’re not insolvent, you could actually come in and take my money.”
Lynch:“What’s happening in Cyprus has…”
Kenny: “No, no, no. That’s the principle that you are espousing.”
Lynch: “No, no, no, Pat you’re confusing two completely different issues here, OK? The issue of the €100,000 guarantee, which is in place in Ireland across the European member states, is to ensure that in the event of those banks actually defaulting, which is not going to happen in Ireland, that the €100,000 is safe. What was proposed in Cyprus was a proposal that came to the Cyprian government, that a levy, on a once-off basis, would actually be applied. Now there are certain difficulties with this…”
Kenny: “No, hang on a second, hang on a second. What you are saying, therefore, this principle, and we’re talking about a principle here, where Bank of Ireland, AIB, etc are not insolvent. But the government is shook for a bit of cash, that it needs money. That because the banks are insolvent, it could go in and take money.
Byrne: “No. Pat, you’re speculating there are you’re completely wrong to put out any suggestion whatsoever that…”
Kenny: “No but if you’re approving of the principle. I mean it’s a principle that shocked everybody.”
Lynch: “What’s happening in Cyprus is a very, very, very unique situation and if you actually look at what’s at the detail of it. The banking crisis in Cyprus is eight times the Cypriot economy. To give that some measurement with regards to the Irish situation: the Irish banking crisis was four times the Irish economy. Another difficulty with the Cypriot issue is the amount of Russian monies that are actually on deposit out there. Approximately 40% of cash held on account in Cyprus is coming from foreign accounts and the vast majority of that is actually Russian. In fact, Paul Krugman over the last couple of days has indicated two specific issues with there. One, is the absence of poor regulatory controls and no laundry protocols there and secondly, he said that if Europe was not to apply some sort of haircut, the banking sector, in effect, what we’d actually be giving out is a bailout to Russian investors. Now surely you don’t want that.”
Kenny: “So, what’s wrong with the Russian investor? I’m sure if a Russian came over here with a few bob, we’d be glad to have him. I mean if you’re talking about mafia investors,say so. But if you’re talking about genuine Russian businessmen and women they’ve as much right. I mean the Morrison Hotel was bought by a Russian businesswoman. What’s wrong with her?”
More to follow
Listen here
Previously: Lest We Forget
Ciaran Lynch.
In YOUR bank right now
Listen here
Martco writes:
Pat Kenny interviewing Labour TD Ciaran Lynch this morning about the statement at the weekend from FG that the Cyprus solution proposed was a great Deal etc.
Gets interesting from approx 4.40 as PK gets ever more worried (about
his own cash as well no doubt) and the Labour eejit tries to fluster his way past PK’s attentions…
Unbelievably though Pat nails him at 09.20 and you can hear Kenny sweating as yer man basically says how he’s alright with the concept of someone with a large deposit to be raided for funds….
Transcript to follow.
(Eamonn Farrell/Photocall Ireland)
Tuesday’s spin Irish Times.
In which the following appeared:
The Irish Government welcomed the agreement, describing it as a “positive development for Cyprus, the euro zone as a whole, and Ireland ”.
“The Cypriot case is a complex and difficult case and it was a significant achievement to reach an agreement between all parties,” a Department of Finance spokesman said yesterday. “This agreement provides a sustainable solution, which deals with Cyprus’s financial system and its funding requirements.”
This would be the same Department of Finance….
Yes.
Ireland Welcomes Bailout Deal As Positive (Irish Times, March 18)
Under no circumstances will deposits in Irish banks be targeted for a Cypriot-style tax, the Government has insisted.
Minister for Agriculture Simon Coveney stressed he was being “clear as crystal” that Irish savings were safe. He made the comments during heated exchanges in the Dáil on the bailout deal for Cyprus, rejected by its parliament but supported by the Irish Government and other euro zone member states.
Ah.
Not good for the gander, then.
(Sam Boal/Photocall Ireland)
Sky Sources: Cypriot Finance Minister offers his resignation
— Sky News Newsdesk (@SkyNewsBreak) March 19, 2013
Pics via Jaunmi_News and Imelda Flattery
The former governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus and a former member of the Governing Council at the European Central Bank, Athanasios Orphanides, speaking to Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg earlier:
Athanasios Orphanides: “What we’re witnessing is the slow death of the European project. We’re in a situation where some European governments are essentially taking action so that they’re telling citizens of other member states that they’re not equal under the law and being here, in the United States, you can realise how catastrophic this is for the sentiment inside of Europe. What we have seen in the last few days is a very serious blunder by European governments, that essentially blackmailing the government of Cyprus to confiscate the money that belongs rightfully to depositers in the banking sector in Cyprus. It’s not clear how this can affect, in a positive manner, the European project, going forward. And this is really a concern about all of Europe.”
Tom Keene: “Professor, I think you own, within research, the “toolbox”. You’re the one who came up with that and popularised the phrase. What is in the toolbox for Germany? What is in the toolbox for Brussels, to move forward constructively?”
Orphanides: “Frankly, it was totally unnecessary to move on with this particular move. Cyprus did not have a problem, before, earlier blunders that were made by the European governments. Even the banking sector is indeed, quite large. But it’s in a solid state. And the only reason we have an issue in Cyprus right now, or talking about this, is because earlier decisions of the European governments imposed many billions of losses on banks, through the haircut they imposed on Greek sovereign debt. So, frankly, the toolkit is to go back to what earlier European leaders were saying, that European leaders should actually sit down and actually try to work together, to get us out of this problem, that their own decisions have been creating. Instead of trying to shift the damage from one member state, at one time, another member state, the other time. Let me tell you what I mean by that.”
Keene: “Please.”
Orphanides: “This is a crisis that is systemic in the Euro area. We have had decisions taken by the strongest government in Europe, that have been spreading misery sequentially to citizens in Greece, in Ireland, in Portugal, in Spain, in Italy. And this is not going to end the way European governments are handling this. We need to have a decision-making process, wherein governments are asked to care for the citizens of the other states. This is not happening. And what we have seen is Cyprus, is just a clear demonstration of this. The way the strongest governments of Europe have blackmailed the Cypriot government to confiscate deposits, is essentially sending a message that nobody with deposits in a small country, like Luxembourg, should feel safe about their deposits. Nobody with deposits in a weak country like Spain should feel safe about the deposits. And you realise this only makes the economic climate in Europe worse instead of contributing to the solution of the crisis.”
Sara Eisen: “Are you envisioning bank runs across Europe?”
Orphanides: “I do not know if there would be bank runs across Europe and I would hope not. But frankly, this is what I find so amazing about this. We have finance ministers from a number of countries who should have known better and they have taken the decision with encouraging bank runs in the Euro area. But I have to also say that it’s not bank runs everywhere. So in decisions like this, much like in the decisions we hear capping Greek debt in October of 2011, actually benefits some countries. For example, as we’ve seen from the markets yesterday a decision like this reduces the financing costs for the German government, so the German government can now borrow at negative rates as a result, while it inflicts pain on other countries. Not everybody is equal under the law, the way European governments are behaving in these days. This is why I worry about the future of Europe.”
Eisen: “Well, clearly, you disapprove of the method here. You talk about systemic risk and contagion. Is the European Central Bank, and Mario Draghi’s pledge to do whatever it takes, a credible backstop to this problem?”
Orphanides: “Well, frankly, the European Central Bank has been quite unclear in its position on this. According to Press reports, the European Central Bank was used as a vehicle to blackmail the Cypriot government. I hope this is wrong because I cannot envision my former colleagues at the European Central Bank contributing in this way to the destruction of Europe.”
Keena: “Professor, let me bring in Megan Greene, our guest host this afternoon, from Maverick Intelligence economist. Megan, Professor Orphanides.”
Greene: “Yeah, I’m wondering what you think of what’s happening in Cyprus means for a banking union in Europe. Do you think that we can have a banking union, if we’ve made such a mockery of deposit guarantee schemes?”
Orphanides: “Not under these conditions. And this is one of my biggest concerns for the future of the Euro area. A year ago, after the June 2012 decision of the European Council, I was more optimistic that European governments understood that in order for the Euro area to stay together, they needed to form a banking union which meant that they needed to have a common credible deposit insurance guarantee for everybody in the Euro area. So, indeed, by making a mockery of that right now, the governments who pushed for this measure are sending a message that they want no part of a banking union.”
Keene: “Professor, you are arguably the representative of Cyprus to the business community in America with your research at the Fed. What is the message you would send to the Cyprus Parliament as they vote this evening or into tomorrow in Nicosia. What would you tell the people of Cyprus about what their politicians need to do.”
Orphanides: “Frankly this is an incredibly tough decision. And I do not want to give advice to the members of parliament in Cyprus about what they should do. Let me again, try to explain to you what this is about. You have other governments in the European Union who are asking members of the Cypriot parliament to vote to confiscate people’s money. It’s not clear what those members of parliament should do under these circumstances and frankly, I really I would, I would much rather go back and ask the other European governments that contributed to this blackmail to rethink: Is it really a positive for the future of Europe to be working in this way?It’s not. Is this really in the interests of the German people? Of the French people?And of everybody else?It’s clearly not.”
Watch in full here.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CocZQX9AOFQ
During yesterdays match between Anorthosis and Omonia Nicosia in Cyprus, a thug in the crowd (possibly inspired by a similarly classy display in Iran last month) throws an expolsive at an injured Anorthosis player.
Incredibly, nobody was hurt in the blast.