Monthly Archives: March 2011

From Moriarty:

“Despite the procedures put in place to preserve the integrity of the process, what the Tribunal found was that the process was far from sealed, and Mr. Lowry was far from being an encouraging  but disinterested Minister, who responded positively to the advice of his most senior civil servant that he should exercise caution in dealings with interested  parties.

Rather, what transpired was that Mr. Lowry displayed
an appreciable  interest in the substantive process, had irregular interactions with interested parties at its most sensitive stages, sought and received substantive information on emerging trends, made his preferences as between the leading candidates known, conveyed his views on how the financial weakness of Esat Digifone
should be countered, ultimately brought a guillotine down on the work of the Project Group, proceeded to bypass consideration by his Cabinet colleagues, and thereby not only influenced, but delivered, the result that he announced on 25th October, 1995, that Esat Digifone had won the evaluation process, which ultimately led to the licensing of Esat Digifone on 16th May, 1996. Each of these
elements of Mr. Lowry’s insidious and pervasive influence on the process will now be addressed.

Before the ink was dry on the Government Decision of 2nd March, 1995, authorising the process, Mr. Lowry lent currency within his Department to a groundless rumour that, if the Persona consortium won the second GSM licence, it would result in a “nest egg” for a former prominent Fianna Fáil politician. This rumour was also deployed by Mr. Lowry to his advantage, when he relayed it to the then Taoiseach, his party leader, Mr. John Bruton T.D., in asserting and endeavouring to convince Mr. Bruton that there was no room for Government discretion on his recommendation of the result of the process. At the same time, Mr. Lowry sought further to neutralise consideration by Government of that recommendation, by indicating that a brother of Mr. Ruairi Quinn T.D., the Minister for Finance, was connected with a member of the third- ranked consortium, Irish Mobicall.

Mr. Lowry’s negative view of Persona was also
conveyed by him to a relatively junior, but influential, member of the Project Group, when Mr. Lowry spoke to him directly in mid-September, 1995, and sought reassurance that the process had not concluded in favour of Persona, who, on that occasion, he described as the bookies favourite.

More to follow…

International Economy magazine, which is like Take A Break for money managers and market analysts, asked a number of “top thinkers” how likely are countries on the “Eurozone periphary” (Portugal, Greece, Ireland) to default outright on soveriegn debt over the next three to five years.

Here’s how they scored Ireland’s chances:

Desmond Lachman, Resident Fellow American Enterprise Institute: CERTAIN

Barton M Biggs, Managing Partner, Traxis Partners: CERTAIN

Louis Bacon, CEO Moore capital management: CERTAIN

Samuel Brittan, Columnist Financial Times: UNLIKELY

Robert K Steel, Deputy Mayor of Economic Development, New York City: PROBABLE

Karl Otto Pohl, Former President, German Bundesbank: UNLIKELY

Jim O’Neill, Chairman Asset Management, Goldman Sachs: UNLIKELY

Tadashi Nakamae, President Nakamae International Economic Research: PROBABLE

Horst M Teltschik, Former president Beoing Germany: PROBABLE

Richard N Cooper, Professor of International Economics, Harvard: UNLIKELY

Michael J Boskin, Professor of Economics, Stanford University: FIFTY/FIFTY

Maya Bhandari, Head of Emerging Markets, Lombard Street Research: PROBABLE

Bernard Connolly, Managing Director, Connolly Macro Advisors: CERTAIN

Wendy Dobson, Former Associate Deputy Minister of Finance, Canada: CERTAIN

Benjamin Friedman, Professor of Political Economy, Harvard: PROBABLE

Makoto Utsumi, President and CEO, Japan Credit Agency: WON’T HAPPEN

Edward Yardeni, President, Yardeni Research: UNLIKELY

Catherine L Mann, Professor of Global Finance, Brandeis University: CERTAIN

Ronald McKinnon, Professor of International Economics, Stanford: PROBABLE

Jean Pierre Patat, President Thierry Apoteker Consulting: UNLIKELY

James M Glassman, Senior Economist, JPMorgan Chase: UNLIKELY

Norbert Walter, Chief Economist Emeritus, Deutsche Bank: PROBABLE

Bowman Cutter, Senior Fellow, Roosevelt Institute: CERTAIN

Charles Wolf, Senior Research Fellow, Hoover Institution: UNLIKELY

David K P Li, Chairman, Bank of East Asia: PROBABLE

Robert J Shapiro, Former US Under Secretary of Commerce: CERTAIN

Murray Weidenbaum, Mallinckrodt Professor, Washington University: PROBABLE

James Capra, Capra Asset Management: PROBABLE

Download: International Economy: Sovereign Debt Symposium (PDF)