poll

There you go now.

Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll: Independents and small parties gain as Coalition falters (Irish Times)

Graph: Irish Times

burton

She can’t hear you.

127 thoughts on “Ipsos Facto

  1. Limey Tank

    Still I get the impression they’re going on as if “Independents/Others” is not worth rating. I think people are tired of party politics or associate parties with corruption. We may have an Independent dominated government yet. (i look forward to the chaos)

    But yet, here I am wanting some kind of new party/alliance to knock the others out. And I don’t mean yet another right wing party indistinguishable from FF/G. The numbers above would make it seem that people do not have a taste for that.

    1. Working Joe

      so FG, Lab and SF are collectively down 10% and FF are up 1%. where did the other 9% of votes go?

    2. Medium Sized C

      ” And I don’t mean yet another right wing party indistinguishable from FF/G. ”

      You don’t understand politics at all.

    3. ABM

      Erm, have you heard of Lucinda Creighton – a principled God-fearing happily married woman who knows right from wrong? You know, she might just be a very, very important figure in the aftermath of the next election. Don’t worry though – she is PR savvy – she knows the right sounds to make to keep the illiberal liberals in check but it won’t deter her desire to change Irish society for the better as one built on faith, family and work.

  2. Just sayin'

    The next government consisting of Sinn Féin and independents will be a stable and prosperous one.

      1. paul m

        many laugh and scoff at the idea of Shinners in the winners circle but its really tragic when the other parties scam, deceive and bleed people dry to such a degree that causes such a groundswell to shift their votes to a hardline republican party. Lets not foget the atrocities of the church happened under FF/FG watch, the bank collapse. They may be different crimes to harbouring sex offenders but its just as damaging to communities and people. You can blame Labour for letting the workers down but FF and FG have done their fair share to prop up the Sinn Fein vote. We’re only starting to realise we’ve spent the last while electing liars and thieves because we were too distracted laughing at those unelected we suspected were liars and thieves. Arent we the fools.

        1. HappyDub

          Good point Paul. I think the best possible outcome for the country is a FF/FG government, Varadkar/Martin, and Shinners to retire Gerry so next time out they have a chance of going into government with majority.

          1. Mike

            Fianna Fáil should be collectively strung up by their nads, tarred and feathered for the kleptocratic tenures they presided over

        2. Clampers Outside!

          I agree 100% that previous governments and the cosiness of the relationship between church and state and the paedophiles that came through that relationship was a complete disaster. Unforgivable.
          .
          But, it is not in anyway similar or should be seen to be similar to the situation with Sinn Fein currently.
          .
          In Sinn Fein’s case we are talking about sex offenders the current Sinn Fein leadership actually knows about, they know the actual individuals. Paedophiles and rapists the current Sinn Fein leaders/TDs let loose into the republic. This govt and the last were dealing with a vast amount of legacy cases. That’s a big difference.
          .
          The 30 individuals were from WITHIN THE RANKS OF SF / IRA, which Sinn Fein has allowed to run free to abuse at will up and down the country under the protection of Sinn Fein.
          No other party has come together to protect members of their party who were paedophiles and rapists, none.
          .
          Another difference, no other party in the history of the state has ever blankly refused to help Gardai / PSNI track down 30 rapists known to that party, none.
          .
          No other party leader has, by their own acknowledgement, admitted to protecting paedophiles and rapists in order to PROTECT THE PARTY, only Sinn Fein’s Gerry and his main spokespersons Pearse Doherty, Mary Lou and O’Snodaigh who all stood just a few weeks and lied with such false vehement it is sickening. They denied and lied until they were found out.
          Then they refused to cooperate and reveal these people they have admitted they let loose…. wtf ! No other party has done this, none.
          .
          They are protecting themselves, and are willing to put YOUR FAMILY AND CHILDREN, and my family, at risk of rape and paedophilia in order to preserve their party. No other party has done that.
          .
          Lastly, I don’t want some cnut who lets paedophiles and rapists run free so that they can save face running this country ! Gery Adams & Co is the face of The Paedophile Protector Party and they will get no where near running this country if it’s the last thing I do.
          .
          Would you allow a teacher who protected a paedophile from authorities teach your kids? …probably not, but those who vote for Sinn Fein clearly have no problem with that kind of thing and by voting Sinn Fein they show their support for the sick self serving, self preserving members of Sinn Fein – The Paedophile Protector Party.
          .
          It is beyond belief the delusion people are willing to put themselves in just to punish this and the last government, by ignoring the Shinner rapists and paedophiles let free, and the consequences of the damage these 30 sex offenders can cause again, and the fact they are not even facing punishment for their previous crimes as acknowledged by Sinn Fein themselves.
          .
          I am in no way saying this as a support for any other party. I just never want a party as devoid of responsibility or awareness as Sinn Fein anywhere near running this place.
          .
          The idea makes me sick.

          1. Frilly Christmas Everyone*

            Here Clamps

            Get it together.

            No one in SFein hired these sickos
            No one in Sfein got them sorted with jobs. Pensionable or otherwise.( I’m thinking of a particularly vile sicko sitting out in the Central Bank until the day he retired. )
            No one in Sfein moved them from one parish/ school/ care home etc to another

            And I’m shit sick of reading the profound ignorance of the anti Shinner chorus.

            Ask yourself why the Gardai didn’t nab these sickos?

            Because there is no ücking way they were put out of up’thur without key Garda knowing.

            You should rejuvenate the PDs
            Your attitude to Republicans would find a nice place to roost there

          2. Clampers Outside!

            Ah Frilly, so…. because of my attitude to the release of paedophiles and rapists by Shinners, by their own acknowledgement, that now makes me a PD.

            That’s a very disappointing conclusion.

            The brass tax… they did do it, they admitted same.

            And I don’t want a bunch of paedophile protectors sitting in the seats of power. Simples.
            And if constantly reminding people of the fact that Sinn fein did this and that they continue to protect these sex offenders is the only thing I have to throw out there to get people to think twice before voting for the scum, then so be it.

            No paedophile protectors are getting in on my watch, if I can help it.

            I’m doing my bit.

      2. scottser

        you may prepare yourself for SF picking up quite a few transfers as 2nd or 3rd choice candidates clampers. the next election will be tight and probably won or lost on those transfers.

          1. Drogg

            Clamps we could always start our own party. With an ideal to disband the party system and limit the length of time someone can serve in the dail while also scraping large political pensions.

          2. Mark Dennehy

            Most of the “independents” are just FFers who realised that FF on the election poster was going to get them unelected last time out.

            As to the Greens, any party with a healthcare policy that’s anti-vaccine, anti-fluoride and pro-homeopathy can go get stuffed, thanks.

          3. Drogg

            Stephen Donnelly is one of the best independents we have and he is no FF man. Also next election we will probably see a lot more first time politicians who are people fed up with the current system. Who would you recommend we vote for? Vote independents.

          4. Medium Sized C

            Mark, if you replace “Most” with “Some of” you’d be right.

            Its not most. There are independants who jumped ship from FG too.

            But you are doing a disservice to people who genuinely stand as independents, or who don’t have an obscure niche leftist party to be part of.

          5. Mark Dennehy

            I’ll see your Stephen and raise you Michael Healy-Rae, Michael Lowry, Mick “Taxes? Why pay taxes? My worker’s pensions? Why pay those?” Wallace, and a host of others.

            Personally, till I start seeing qualified professionals going for independent TD roles, I don’t think you’ll have a viable solution. And I don’t mean yet more solicitors, barristers, teachers, GAA players and professional politicians whose main claim to competency is that their parents were poltiicians. We have enough of those. Where are the scientists, the economists, the mathematicians, the doctors and the engineers – the people who are professionally trained to solve complex problems?

          6. Drogg

            You seem to be looking for an argument with me? I like none of those people ether they are all populist morons from countys with to many seats for heads of population. I would like to see more scientists and economists being independent candidates, but i would also like to see some artists or creatives become independents as well to join the dail to balance out the cold factual nature of scientists and economists. But we can’t force these people to run as independents all we can do is hope they feel its there civic duty and run. But Stephen donnelly is and economist that has left a six figure job to go work in the dail cause he was fed up of the nonsense that goes on in there, shane ross though he has some links to FF isn’t an FF man and has don’t some get scrutinising on all the committees he is on in the dail and claire daly who may not be what most people perceive to be a great politician she has proven herself to be the unshakeable left wing pillar who’s only downside is the fact that she associates herself with that tax dodger wallace. Also you never said who you think is worth voting for? or are you afraid to be in the firing line? see what i did there firing line. wittiest thing i will say this year and i have to point it out.

          7. Rosebud

            I want to agree with you but please use better grammar. Please, for the sake of your own good arguments.

          8. Buzz

            I used to think Shane Ross was great until he failed to say boo about the INM debt write-down (and I heard he got his son-in-law a job there).

          9. Medium Sized C

            I think the point Mark is really making, Drogg, is that the norm of independant candidates in Ireland is not Stephen Donnelly.

            Most of them are not Stephen Donnelly.
            I believe that he is trying to say that most of them are teachers or solicitors on career breaks who either used to be in one of the big parties or their parent was.
            Or else they are lunatics.

            There are very few skilled people willing to run Independant like Stephen Donnelly. So if you don’t live in Wicklow or East Carlow, voting independent (while noble a persuit) is a more difficult thing to do.

          10. Drogg

            But medium as i said in an earlier comment i think we will be surprised by a number of new candidates in the next election. People are sick to the back teeth of the usual political lot, now is the time for natural leaders & academics to rise to these positions and form a dail like never seen before. But all we can do is wait and see who is running in 2016.

          11. Medium Sized C

            I’d like to believe it Drogg and as you say, we will see.

            But they didn’t show up last time.
            I don’t know why they would show now.
            If they had to wait for every whipped party to fail before accepting black wasn’t white, then should we really trust their judgement now?

            History tells us FF will be back.
            And this poll says coalition, not independent government.

          12. Drogg

            We had a decent influx of them last election and remember there is a long way to go until the 2016 election, no one knows what surprises is in store for us all but i think an Independent dail could be a great change for this country.

          13. Mark Dennehy

            i would also like to see some artists or creatives become independents as well to join the dail to balance out the cold factual nature of scientists and economists.

            “Cold factual”… oh go land a robot on mars.

            Also you never said who you think is worth voting for?

            Because I don’t know yet. Call an election, announce the candidates and then we’ll see.

            I think the point Mark is really making, Drogg, is that the norm of independant candidates in Ireland is not Stephen Donnelly.

            Correct.

            i think an Independent dail could be a great change for this country.

            You’re confusing the word Independent with the word Competent I think.
            I’d happily vote for a competent person running as an Independent, but that doesn’t mean I’ll just vote for someone because they’re an Independent.

          14. Drogg

            Yes but if you vote for a competent person who is a member of a political party, no matter how qualified they are or how intelligent they are they must follow the ideals of the party and the party whip. Which really negates having voted for an individual in the first place, really you are just voting for a political party placeholder.

          15. Mark Dennehy

            Yes but if you vote for a competent person who is a member of a political party, no matter how qualified they are or how intelligent they are they must follow the ideals of the party and the party whip. Which really negates having voted for an individual in the first place, really you are just voting for a political party placeholder.

            Gosh that sounds familiar…
            https://www.broadsheet.ie/2013/09/03/not-good-enough-to-save-not-bad-enough-to-abolish/#comment-711176

            OMG, Mark has mastered the italic tag!

            Er, no. This is the italic tag.

            This is the blockquote tag.

            #TheMoreYouKnow

  3. Bonkers

    Wow when Enda took the reigns in 2002 FG were on 22.5% which was their second worse election result in the parties history. Enda took over from Baldy Noonan and his Baldy Bus and spent the next nine years building up FG from 22.5% of the vote in 2002 to 36.1% in 2011. Now todays poll shows them on just 19%. In under four years in power Enda’s ‘leadership’ has seen FG have lose all their gains from the previous nine years and then some. Unbelievable.

    1. ahyeah

      “spent the next nine years building up FG from 22.5% of the vote in 2002 to 36.1% in 2011”

      Not sure you can attribute FG getting 36% in 2011 to Enda’s genius stewardship. After the FF debacle, the ‘second’ party were always going to do very, very well. In fact, given what happened, I always thought 36% was a pretty poor return.

      I didn’t vote FG in 2011, but might have considered doing so if there had been a different leader – anyone other than Kenny.

    2. edalicious

      I’d say a large part of that gain was people moving away from FF/Green during the recession, not any real improvement caused by Kenny.

    3. Happy Molloy

      was always going to be the case as FG have had to come in and make the hard decisions, not for the first time in the history of our state either.

      thank God for parties that are willing to be unpopular for the right reasons

      1. Clampers Outside!

        +1

        FF give all the money away, FG come in and make the hard decisions to get the money to run the country and again they lose favour, FF back in again to give it all away, FG back in again to fix the mess, FF….

        Aaaaaaand Repeat

        1. paul m

          we need more of the elderly middle ireland to die. those who still think voting for FF/FG is like supporting your county – to the death. Then maybe we might see something other than Lucindas zomPD’s or Ross’ lucky dip bag o’ TDs. Independents all the way! lets run this country like the GAA.

          1. ReproBertie

            Fingers crossed for a harsh winter to kill off a few of the elderly FF/FG voters, right Paul?

  4. Dubloony

    I think the “independent” needs more scrutiny. How many of them are socialist workers in various guises?
    Here we go with the great Irish cycle of politics – pick populists who tell you you don’t have to pay for anything, wreck the country, get in FG / Lab tomop up the mess, and repeat.

    Depressing,

    1. Jess

      Its not independants, it “independants/others”, that includes all other parties than the ones listed

    2. Drogg

      Fupp off with your sanctimonious poo. There has never been an independents government and its the parties that are the ones making the unbelievable election promises just like the last elections. Just cause you’re some FG/Labour fanboy doesn’t mean you’re right it just makes you think you’re right. The plans FG/Labour have used to decrease the trouble we are in has divided this country, pulled investment from areas that are needed to bolster are future all while backhanding their mates in the top 1%. Vote Independent.

    3. Alfred E. Neumann

      That does seem to be the cycle. But I feel that the IW fiasco has crystallised a lot of what is disappointing about the current government, even for many of their supporters.

      It’s hard to see anyone mustering up much enthusiasm for them unless they change radically in the next year, and that feels profoundly unlikely. I suspect they are pinning all their re-election hopes on people getting used to water charges, a giveaway budget and fear of Sinn Fein.

    4. Frilly Christmas Everyone*

      They can be as finely roasted nut job slash socialist as they like. They’re getting my vote.

      And if the Shinners replace Snoddy, or even stick on a running mate, they’re getting one too.

      That FF number is a best case IMO.

      Feic’em Fail + the Fine Girl ya ares + the Labour trough eaters will be closer to 40% on the day imo

    5. ReproBertie

      From Ivan Yates’ opinion piece in the Indo:

      Some 225 Independent councillors were elected out of 949 public representatives. As few as 30 of these can be termed extreme socialists – 14 for People Before Profit; one for the Workers’ Party; one for United Left Alliance and one for Sinn Fein. On closer examination, the greatest numbers of Independent councillors are former Fianna Fail (35 plus), former Fine Gael (17) and others actively identified with local incumbent independent TDs, such as Michael Lowry and Mattie McGrath in Tipperary, Tom Pringle in Donegal and John Halligan in Waterford.

      http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/ivan-yates/independents-need-to-put-egos-aside-and-seize-the-chance-to-control-next-dail-30797474.html

  5. edalicious

    While I do like the fact that the independents are gaining more ground over our demonstrably inept political parties, I can’t imagine that anything useful will actually be achieved in an independent majority government. Especially not in terms of the big, difficult changes that are needed and should have happened over the last decade, like healthcare reform, housing shortages, education, etc.

        1. Alfred E. Neumann

          Pick any two of Germany, Denis O’Brien, the new three-hour Exposé, ABM, Bono and the bearded guy in the Vodafone ad.

    1. MUlch

      An Independent rise is a two sided coin. It will typically remove almost any chance of one party government and usually means a smaller majority.
      Whilst a smaller majority is good to keep a government from losing the run of itself, it can lead to them avoiding the hard calls on items like reform, due to a possible backlash.
      And then you want to avoid independents like the healy-rae’s to gain votes as you will have to sell your soul to get their support. Good for Kerry, bad for everyone else.
      Whats becoming more and more important in the current political setting is a strong leader. One that will make the calls that have to be made, no matter how sh**ty it looks. But are there any strong leaders there at the minute?

      1. Alfred E. Neumann

        Doesn’t that depend a lot on the calls? In what was has Kenny been weak, do you think?

        (Obviously I don’t mean “what policies he got wrong”, before the morons pile in.)

        1. MUlch

          I’d agree it definitely depends on the calls.
          This government has been cleaning up rather than reforming or progressing.
          For me, i think Enda was weak on the abortion debate, in that it didnt go far enough. I think he folded on that, personally.
          Progress has been made with Europe and the IMF on the debts, but i would have liked a little more aggression on this, rather than just taking what he was told he could have.
          I’m sensing a bit of arrogance from Enda as he has done well in some aspects to get the mess turned around, and this is leading him into a false sens of security in that he can do no wrong. The IW setup has been a good example of this.
          Overall, i don’t think he has done too badly, but he wont be the headliner for the next election.

          1. Alfred E. Neumann

            Couldn’t agree more about the IMF, but I think he would have split the party if he’d pushed harder on abortion. As it was, he lost four TDs. He was pretty swift about expelling them, actually, if we’re looking for evidence of strong leadership.

          2. rotide

            Alfred, are you medium sized C in disguise? Your posts are eloquent, reasonable and intelligent. Keep it up.

        2. Frilly Christmas Everyone*

          ‘ being honest wi’ya Alfie

          Edna showed his weakness when he annointed Alan Shatter as Minister of Justice.

          That’s when this government promised the numbers you’re all seeing this morning

          1. Alfred E. Neumann

            He stuck with him too long, certainly, and the same with Hogan. But he did get rid of him, and of Callinan. But I don’t remember any alarm about the appointment.

            My impression was that Shatter started out well and gradually turned into a swivel-eyed lunatic. But beyond a suspicion that the Justice Department is built on a Native American burial ground, I don’t know much about it. Were there signs that he was going to be such a disaster?

          2. Frilly Christmas Everyone*

            There was deffo comments of the aghast variety when Shatter got named.

            The general vibe was that Shatter must have an unmerciful amount of durt on Edna’s troop.

            But I didn’t have t’tell you that did I?

          3. Frilly Christmas Everyone*

            Ah bless

            Are ya still not right

            I haven’t changed upstairs lately

            ‘Suppose I have’ta now.
            Seeing as you’re almost recovered

          4. Alfred E. Neumann

            You engaged me here, I gave you a straight answer, and you came back with this crap again. Do you not see that you’re being an asshole?

            And yes, I find it depressing. Why do you persist with it?

    2. Stephanenny

      I always wonder when people say this, but when you look at how much time is wasted by opposition TDs putting together bills and having them voted down simply because the government is working on a similar one. And the time opposition spend opposing government bills simply because they’re government ones. I’ve seen groups of people get together in a room and do something useful with no alliances outside that room, I’ve also seen them try it when there are alliances outside the room and it’s a waste of time. I think I’d be thrilled to see the party system go.

    1. Medium Sized C

      They are doing well.

      They are up a point and 1% behind the most popular political party.
      If Sinn Fein are doing well, they are also doing well.

      Particularly given the historical trend of them walking back into government after FG/Lab governments.
      And given the effort they have put into “fresh new” faces.
      Plus the fact that they have attracted “up and comers” who jump ship from Labour.

      My money is on them being in the next government. Most likely with FG.

      Cue Rotide telling me I’m Bertie Ahern.

  6. cousinjack

    There is no electable party in Ireland
    FG – cronyism and spin
    FF – corruption and gombeenism
    Lab – Liars, at best champagne socialist
    SF – Irish-style social nationalism

    There is a big space for a socially liberal economically literate party (at least in Dublin),
    Reform alliance don’t represent any demographic, especially not in SouCouD

      1. Drogg

        Could FF and FG not be called that as well through their protection of the church abuses over the year?

          1. Drogg

            Don’t get me wrong i am no sinn fein fan but sinn fein are not the IRA. Some sinn fein people may be IRA members but it is still a political party protecting a third party.

          2. Clampers Outside!

            …well, we could be here all day on that one….

            Gerry was in the ‘RA, I’ll not believe anything else from that accomplished and known fibber.
            His most recent, caught out fib being, the denial of the sexual predators released onto the public only a few weeks back.
            And then, to add insult to injury, he said it was a problem with the public’s fear of the police in Northern Ireland… a fear which his party instilled in the people of NI through an active campaign of non-cooperation with them. A campaign that had punishments for persons who didn’t comply… something SF have glossed over in the whole thing, something I’m very surprised no media has challenged them on either.

            The man, nor anyone in his party can be believed about anything.

          3. Drogg

            I agree but i also think that no on in FG or FF can be trusted ether they are all liars. My Point was the IRA moved the paedos down south and SF covered it up FF and FG did a good job of hiding many abuses over the years. I my eyes they are all as bad as each other.

      2. Frilly Christmas Everyone*

        Ah come off it Clamps

        Shinners were walking well behind Feic’em Fail and Fine Girl ya are on that one.

        And by a quite a ways too.

        1. Mé Féin

          Agreed. Nothing on the scale of the RC Church and its agents in government. Throw in other scandals like Tuam and the Magdalene slaves, the IRA look like altar boys (bad analogy).

    1. Liam

      we had a socially liberal economically literate party – the PDs, they were destroyed. Arguably the Greens met those criteria as well, also destroyed.

      1. Medium Sized C

        When you say “Socially Liberal” and Jack says “Socially Liberal” I don’t think you mean the same thing.

      2. Mé Féin

        The PDs were gombeen enablers and nowhere near economically literate. If they were, we would not be in this mess now.

    2. Medium Sized C

      Hey Jack,

      You seem to be missing/ignoring/forgetting the Cronyism and Spin of FF and the Gombeenism and probable corruption in FG.

    1. Frilly Christmas Everyone*

      Maybe that was the plan

      Edna didn’t really need em to form a government

      But he needed a stab vest for his Jobs and Write Offs and Contracts For The Boys work plan

      1. bisted

        …I saw an analysis earlier that if these figures were reflected in an election outcome then Labour wouldn’t get any seats.

        1. Frilly Christmas Everyone*

          Ah there’ll be 2 or three. At best.

          Where there was a personality machine under the rose rather than a Labour Party directive
          ie Willie Penrose

  7. BluBlu

    There’s something strangely wonderful about them using a pic of Joan smiling here. Sort of encapsulates the absolute obliviousness of the Labour Party.

    1. Alfred E. Neumann

      Very funny. At least Enda looks properly devastated.

      Martin looks like he’s not coming out of the toilet until he goes up another three points.

    1. Dubloony

      Is that AAA, SWP, local candidate independent, ex-FF, ex-FG independent or Healy-Rae independent ?

      The united left alliance fell apart when there were only a few of them in opposition.
      Do you honestly think they could form a government?

      1. Drogg

        Spoken like a true FG bot. Independent candidates no matter who they are associated with even though i would prefer no ex FG or FF candidates, are what the public want. The gereral electorate is fed up of voting for a person they think has the right ideas only for them to be all squashed by party policies and the whip system. Vote Independent.

        1. Medium Sized C

          You need to make your point without telling people who they are like some facist accusing his neighbours of being Jewish Communist.

          A FF bot would say this.
          A SF bot would say this.
          A Labour bot would say this.
          There are probably independent TD’s right now who would say this.

          Because in Ireland its true.

          You are giving way too much creedence to a popularity contest and even at that, if you add any one of FF, FG and SF you get 41%+ which is more popular than independents.

          Want a solid majority? Add Labour.
          Paint the Dail with a Rainbow.
          FF + (FG or SF) + Labour is at least 46%

          And again, this isn’t an election.
          There are no candidates involved.

          1. Drogg

            Sorry this is a continuation of a comment above just Dubloony never answered any of the points above and then has randomly had a go a someone who has said vote independent. It screams of someone who doesn’t wish to debate but just repeat the same pointless argument against anything that is not part of their agenda. I will try not to call somebody a FG or FF bot without making an argument against their points from now on, but i am not making any promises as sometimes the the fingers type before the brain kicks in.

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