Crime And Employment



PhD candidate in economics at University of Michigan Enda Hargaden

Further to David Higgins’ number crunching

John McManus, in today’s Irish Times, writes:

“Rural crime has got more to do with unemployment in rural areas and the economy as whole than it does with the number of Garda stations or repeat offenders out on bail. Economic theory holds that crime is a rational alternative to traditional employment when it it is not available and nowhere has it been more eloquently proven than in pre- and post-crash Ireland.”

“A candidate for a PhD in economics at the University of Michigan, Enda Hargaden, has looked at the relationship between employment levels and crime in the Republic over the 11 years between 2003 and 2014… He found crime levels rose and fell in tandem with employment in any given area. The relationship was particularly strong for theft and burglary…”

Hargaden was even able to quantify the relationship and found that an increase of 1,000 in the numbers on the dole in a particular county or Garda district led to an extra 50 break-ins and thefts.”

John McManus: Rural crime is about jobs not Garda stations or the bail laws (Irish Times)

Read Enda Hargaden’s study here

Previously: Living In Fear

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58 thoughts on “Crime And Employment

  1. bisted

    …bleedin’ North Americans…coming over here with their PhDs and facial hair…crunching ours numbers…

          1. MajorThrill

            Hell, I’d settle for a link to a blogspot site. It’d be practically authoritative in comparison.

  2. Pale Blue Dot Cotton

    But it’s not rural unemployment. Radio reports usually say it’s gangs from Dublin and fasht cars on easily accessible motorways?

        1. Earthworm Jim

          That’s just it, I didn’t have the time which is why I said ” I wonder”, sincere apologies, I’ll try not to wonder without informing myself as far as is practicable in future. Bloody work getting in the way as usual…

    1. Spaghetti Hoop

      That’s what I thought, but that’s only based on anecdotal evidence. Assumed that urban burglary was getting a bit tricky for the gurriers with all this phone watch and lit-up neighbourhoods and they’ve diversified their activities to rural houses.

  3. Jonotti

    He is wasting his time as be does not have access to the pertinent data. Can he differentiate between rural and urban burglaries? No, because he doesn’t have adresss data. Can he tell if offenders are rural or urban based? No, because he doesn’t have access to offender data.

    1. MoyestWithExcitement

      Ok, buddy. Which part of the report offended you because clearly that’s what’s after happening?

      1. Jonotti

        I don’t like pretend academics having their dodgy research published as fact in broadsheet papers.

        1. MoyestWithExcitement

          Pretend academics? What is he pretending exactly? And which part of his study is “dodgy”? Let’s see your research.

          1. Jonotti

            He’s a PhD student so he should stay away from the papers till he learns his trade. I’ve already dissected his approach here. What are you going to do I send links to machine leaning papers?

      2. MoyestWithExcitement

        And PHD students are pretending to be PHD students? Did you really think that through? And you thinking ‘he couldn’t have access to address data’ is “dissecting” his study is absolutely hilarious.

        1. Jonotti

          PhD students are by definition pretend academics. Some gifted sorts rise above this but most don’t. His research should be given no more weight than somebody presenting a rough analysis in a forum post.
          Please tell me how his hypotheses stand without access to offender and crime addresses?

          1. MoyestWithExcitement

            “PhD students are by definition pretend academics.”

            By definition, yeah? Brilliant.

            “Please tell me how his hypotheses stand without access to offender and crime addresses?”

            Sure. Crime went up when the economy was bad and went down when it improved. Any other mind numbingly inane questions?

          2. Dόn Pídgéόní

            Because its an ecological study, which is perfectly valid to do, albeit with limitations as with every study.

          3. MoyestWithExcitement

            So let’s see your research. Show me how you’ve reached the conclusion that crime isn’t linked to the economy.

  4. Jonotti

    PhDs are supposed to be original research. The link between unemployment and crime levels has been done to death.

        1. Dόn Pídgéόní

          You seem pretty mad. And your PhD isn’t in an area even remotely associated but you feel you can pull his apart? Jog on mate.

          1. Jonotti

            Look at his sources. Any clown can take CSO datasets and play with them. I’ve done it here many times before.

          2. Dόn Pídgéόní

            CSO datasets are a valid data source. Can any clown use a Bartik-style instrumental variable?

          3. Jonotti

            He needs access to the real data. If he had this then he would see his hypothesis fail.
            Somebody mentioned a different hypothesis that was presented to the press by the gardai. This was the result of professional statisticians and researchers working within the gardai having full access to the data.

          4. Jonotti

            Another personal attack because you have lost the argument.

            I would genuinely love to spend a day with some of you and show you my life. You would not believe the level I operate at.

          5. MoyestWithExcitement

            And *you* lose the “argument” (there was no argument, you’re just wrong) when you try and impress faceless avatars on the internet.

          6. Dόn Pídgéόní

            “You would not believe the level I operate at.”

            Someone read a Donald Trump book recently. No, doesn’t sound psychotic at all…

        2. Lorcan Nagle

          “You would not believe the level I operate at.”

          Well, nobody here believes a word you say, so you’re halfway there. Keep reaching, buddy.

  5. ollie

    Mr Hargaden should examine the link between the traveller population and crime. Does an increase in the first lead to an increase in the second?

  6. Not Gerry Adams

    The only constant is the number of travellers, which is paradoxically increasing logarithmically.

    1. Rob_G

      I’m sure that there are also regular scummers who burglarise houses in rural areas, but whenever you hear about gangs who ‘terrorise rural communities’ being arrested, they tend to come from Ireland’s favourite ethnicity – you know, the one that begins with a ‘T’.

    2. Earthworm Jim

      If the sag of the bag is equal to the angle of the dangle then the throb of the knob is constant.

  7. doncolleone

    so unemployment is like a gateway drug to crime. wow, deep man, odd I never started a life of crime while on the scratcher, oh wait, I know why, it’s because the social welfare is there to make sure I don’t need to. Can I have my phd now?

  8. Truth in the News

    PhD for this …really, the reality is that most of the crime prepareted in rural
    areas comes from urban gangs roaming at will in rural Ireland that have little or
    no police patrols, to postulate that un-employment figures in rural Ireland can be
    corelated to the rise in rural crime is nothing short as daft, indeed most of the
    thefts and breakins are never solved and sometimes not reported as most of
    those who are burgled realise that nobody will be caught, charged or even
    jailed, if you were Joan Burton and were discomoded then you’d stand a chance.

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