From top: Census 2016 figures; Enda Kenny’s former director of communications Ciaran Conlon gives the former Fine Gael leader and taoiseach a helping hand at a photocall
Is @csoireland ‘s census methodology in tatters? A former government insider claims the figures are completely wrong. https://t.co/8U1Sylk3gP
— Antoin O Lachtnain (@antoin) January 3, 2018
Before Christmas, Ciaran Conlon, a former spin doctor of Enda Kenny, wrote in the Irish Independent on why he believes the Public Services Card should be embraced.
Mr Conlon, who is now Director of Strategy and Public Policy with MKC Communications, wrote:
The relevance of both the Public Service Card issue and smart metering is highlighted by my belief that the 2016 Census overstated the number of vacant properties in the State by over 100,000 and, as a result, underestimated the population by up to 200,000.
The numbers are buried a little in the final Census report but they stand out a mile when one considers the state of the property market today.
“The Census suggests that of the 1,931,497 households in the State, there are 183,312 vacant properties, indicating that roughly one in 10 properties were vacant.
“At a time of double-digit growth in prices and rents, it just doesn’t seem logical that property owners would leave their valuable assets sitting idle.
By contrast, in the rental market, according to Census and Daft.ie figures, the vacancy rate is just over one property in 100, or 3,637 properties for rent out of total of 326,493 privately rented households in the State.
“I don’t believe there are 180,000 empty properties in the State and thankfully Minister Eoghan Murphy didn’t either. Before the Budget he told media that, on closer examination by the CSO, there were actually just 20,000 vacant properties or a vacancy rate similar to the 1pc figure in the rental market. Now that seems much more realistic.”
“This intervention by Mr Murphy helped avoid the introduction of a pointless ‘use it or lose it’ property tax, but still leaves behind 100,000 or more properties that have been incorrectly labelled as vacant.”
“If they are not vacant and each property has just two people living in it – the national average is 2.7 – that gives us the 200,000 population understatement I mentioned earlier.”
The claim by Eoghan Murphy concerning vacant properties was made on September 8, 2017.
In response, the CSO released a statement saying:
During the course of the Census 2016 field campaign, which took place over 10 weeks between March and May 2016, over 4,600 enumerators delivered and collected Census data from every house in the country.
As part of this work, they recorded vacant dwellings in their area, using detailed methodology and definitions applied consistently over the past three consecutive Censuses. The CSO is confident that it’s vacant dwelling figures are a robust point-in-time record around the 24th April 2016.
In relation to the recent sample survey work on vacant dwellings conducted by Fingal County Council, the CSO did not provide a list of vacant dwellings to the Council as the CSO only ever disseminates aggregate statistics.
The CSO is in the process of contacting Fingal County Council to seek information on a number of issues, including the methodology and definitions applied by the council in compiling their numbers.
Anyone?
Meanwhile…
Now in actual #PSC News, the Oireachtas Committee which oversees the Depts has asked me to come in to give evidence on the cards (and the national biometric database they are tokens of).
First hearings this month, running into Feb, as I understand.
— Simon McGarr (@Tupp_Ed) January 3, 2018
Read full article here
Previously: ‘The Numbers That Are Really Vacant Are Actually Much Smaller’
Ciaran Conlon: Enda’s Right-Hand Man (2011)
They think we can understand phupp all unless its printed like an Eddie Rockets menu.
+ 1
unfortunately this is true. Most people don’t understand numbers or statistics.
any stats to back that up?
ever heard “I gave 110%”?
87.2% of stats are made up.
Fact.
..and 25.4% of people believe that.
I’m pretty sure I understand numbers. Statistics? Not a clue.
Perhaps you do.
Most people can’t cope with hundreds of thousands – never mind millions or billions (don’t even think about trillions). These are inconceivably large numbers (to most).
Quick quiz (no using ‘tinternet – that’s cheating)
How many grains of sugar are there in 1 kilo?
whoever gets it to the nearest thousand wins a prize!![1]
[1] I’m lying – there is no prize.
Is it more than a million or am I way off?
yes to both parts of your question, young man
i’m going to hazard a guess at 1.61124 million (and that’s assuming each grain weighs around 0.62575 mg)
so?
Fupploads.
I win.
sorry Andyourpointiswhatexactly, the correct SI terminology is “a metric Fuppload”
There are Fupploads of grains in a pound of sugar.
1 kilo is not the same as 1 pound Cian. Sounds like you should brush up on your numerical ability before having a pop at others.
BobbyJ I know.
There are Fupploads of grains in a pound of sugar.
There is a Metric Fuppload of grains of sugar in a kilo.
100% gut feeling is it?
No, it’s 110% gut feeling!
:-)
I believe all the info from the census is available in more detail and less well illustrated format on the CSO website.
Or would you rather they only made giant spreadsheets of numbers available?
+1
Meh, I never believed 200,000 units were vacant.
Although I’d probably want a more detailed survey than what Fingal did.
Given housing is such a big issue and these claims directly call into question the accuracy of the Census, another full scale survey should be completed – it would cost money but so be it.
The Geodirectory calculates a vacancy rate of 5% or 96,000 units, much lower than the census. See here: https://www.geodirectory.ie/Blog/Geodirectory-Blog/July-2017/GeoView-Residential-Report-Q2-2017.aspx
The methodology is a bit different it seems. The Geodirectory (which is based on a twice-yearly survey by 5,600 postal delivery workers) seems not to classify houses for sale or rent as vacant.
It depends on who you feel is better equipped to classify a dwelling as vacant: cenus enumerators who call once every five years, or postal workers who visit the dwellings five times a week.
Two things:
1. “Census enumerators who call once every five years”. The Census guys are supposed to call into each house multiple times over a number of weeks before flagging it as vacant – but I take your point :-)
2. Postal workers will only go to houses that are getting post. In the course of the day they will pass empty houses and count them. However, if there is a house down a laneway that never gets post, then the postman will never have reason to visit that lane and may not be aware of it to include it.
It would be interesting to see if the Census data was crosschecked to the school data. Total counts would tell you if there were major discrepancies. I’m sure Dept of Education has a count of pupils.
If there are (allegedly) 200,000 people missing would it be fair to say some of these are children?
That is a fair assumption.
There must be tons of ways to cross check.
In most European countries you have much more comprehensive administrative data than in Ireland.
This is because people are legally obliged to notify the state where they live, and when they move. So the state has a big database of who lives where and knows lots of things about them.
This does not exist in Ireland for various historical reasons. There are a range of partial databases (Revenue, DSP, motor taxation, etc) but no single canonical up-to-date one. So Ireland relies heavily on the Census to check every five years who lives where, and all sorts of things about people.
You could introduce a European-style system and there would be both lots of costs and benefits to it. I won’t go into them here.
The problem is that the data quality would not be perfect. People forget to tell the authorities when they move house. They don’t mention when they leave the country. Many people have (naturally) messy lives – they move from place to place or they are in and out of hospitals and nursing homes. No system captures this perfectly (maybe North Korea does).
A PSC database is not a panacea.
Also, Ciaran Conlon looks like Paul from the Great British Bake Off.
That’s a class show.
Ah now. I had to go and google him to see if you were right and you’re not. All grey-beardy men do not look alike.
Ah they do.
Have you, perchance, had a small post-prandial snifter?
would it not be a pre- at this hour?
Nope. It means lunch.
Leaving Cert Latin, boyo. All locked in up here.
*ahem
dinner or lunch
(i won’t hold this against you)
It means lunch in Latin. Anything else is arriviste.
Now I’m doubting the use of arriviste.
Look what you’ve done. My night is ruined.
oh no
don’t think that’s right
arriviste like parvenu?
You describe someone as an arriviste when you are criticizing them because they are trying very hard to belong to an influential or important social group which you feel they have no right to belong to.
Sigh. Not what I mean at all.
Ah fupp off.
Parvenu isn’t it either.
I’m trying to say someone who’s modern, not old school.
like an arriviste or new arrival meaning? you’re being v clever now – using the french arriver, maybe?
god, you’re hot
Yeah!! Totally clever. These posts are fupping incredibly smart alright.
I’m going to watch some Maisy Mouse with the nipper. That’s about my level.
Ta-ra, chuck.
Everyone knows Fine Gael people have been broken down by age, religion, and sex … just like the census.