RTÉ News, yesterday
Last night.
Broadsheet on the Telly‘s Neil Curran shared a graph with viewers (see below) showing virus growth in Ireland with Dublin and Donegal singled out, prompted by an RTÉ article which Neil claims is untrue and generating fear.
Neil writes:
“Torture numbers, and they’ll confess to anything”
Gregg Easterbrook
The only people who like accountants are other accountants. But there is one attribute to accountants we can all take from; predictability.
Whether its good news or bad news, accountants like to be able to predict it. Otherwise, even if you are giving your investors sky high revenue and profit results, if you didn’t predict it then you’re not in control of your books.
The same can be said for viruses. The difference here is that unpredictability leads to uncertainty and leads to fear. Fear is a very powerful force.
On September 18, Dublin entered level 3+ on the government’ Covid-19 roadmap and on September 25, Donegal followed suit. Second waves, doom and gloom, shame and horror – we are back there again.
With Tony Holohan’s return last Sunday, it brought a further wave of anxiety as the Level 5 leak spread like wildfire (how many of you are receiving the WhatsApp messages already where someone’s Mammy’s Aunt is a teacher and heard level 5 kicks in on X date?). It’s now a media circus.
Yesterday, RTÉ ran a story with the headline, “Still ‘exponential growth’ in Dublin despite level 3 restrictions”. The first paragraph tells us how Associate Professor of Biochemistry at Trinity College Dublin, Tomás Ryan has said the situation in Dublin has got worse and we have what looks like exponential growth.
This is completely untrue…
Rona rates in Ireland, September 18-October 8
…as you can see from this graph (above) which captures daily case rates since September 18, Dublin is not experiencing exponential growth. If we were experiencing exponential growth than the virus would need to be doubling its presence over a specific period of time.
Taking the daily rates from September 18 to October 8, cases are currently trending downward. That’s not to say we are out of the woods yet, we will need to see if that trend continues over the next 5 days.
However one thing is for sure, Dublin is not experiencing exponential growth and there is nothing in the data from the past 7 days that would suggest that.
So why did RTÉ run that article and give column space to an associate professor that was claiming a false truth? Why didn’t RTÉ fact check his claim?
It is fair to say beyond Dublin and Donegal the rest of Ireland is deteriorating rapidly. However, based on the data for Dublin and to a lesser extent Donegal, there is evidence to suggest level 3 restrictions are working, even if they are working at a slower rate than desired.
Yesterday, NPHET recommended no changes to current guidelines of level 3 nationwide and the government heeded their advice. Reading between the lines would suggest they are monitoring progress accordingly.
Without suggesting any return of complacency, it would do us all a favour if the government could acknowledge that level 3 is having a positive impact in Dublin and they are hoping for a similar trend nationwide.
Otherwise the lack of clarity will continue to fuel fear, madness and false claims made by people in positions who should know better.
Last night: Staying In Tonight?
Earlier: Death Without Dignity
Meanwhile…
Ivor Cummins aka The Fat Emperor writes:
THE ULTIMATE LESSON from Sweden – short and sharp for sharing. It will help people to grasp the reality, in these strange, strange times.
Fight!
Meanwhile…
In follow up, here is a graph showing all CoViD-19 Cases and Deaths in Ireland. The graph is smoothed to the 7 day average. The cases, they are rising for sure but look at that death rate. So yet again we ask: #WhyAreTheyDoingThis and #WhyDoWeAcceptIt . #Casedemic pic.twitter.com/DRZP6NGObv
— Jason McNamara (@JasonMcNamaraIE) October 9, 2020
Oh.
the government have lost the public completely. no one’s listening to them, after blunder after blunder they don’t have anyones trust or respect.
“The government have lost the public” – more random sweeping statements that are more wishful thinking than real life. Too much time on Twitter. I just don’t see this.
That’s simply not true.
I agree. They have lost control of the narrative, which they had maintained a tight grip over for months in the beginning. It’s a relief to see their spell being broken and the numbers of people finally starting to question this nonsense growing by the day. I am pushing for and tryying to help create an environment where lockdown measures are simply no longer politically possible, nor practially enforceable. The tide has definitely turned and more see now that the emperor has no clothes.
Level 5 lockdown coming over the weekend apparently. That’s the word on the street.
“Taking the daily rates from September 18 to October 8, cases are currently trending downward.”
Daily case figure on September 18 per this graph: ca. 250 nationally, ca. 110 in Dublin, ca. 10 in Donegal
Daily case figure on October 8 per this graph: ca. 500 nationally, ca. 100 in Dublin, ca. 50 in Donegal
So cases are trending downward if we look at Dublin figures (fair enough, although if we took the figures on 7 October it would tell a slightly different story). But have doubled nationally, approx., and increased a lot in Donegal.
So what exactly are we talking about here?
Hi. The article focus is Dublin, as that’s the region the associate professor is speaking of on the original RTÉ article.
What period was he referring to Neil?
Or even if we go just one more day earlier, we see that the 6 October case increase for Dublin was +217. Which, if my maths serve me correctly, is approximately double the ca. 110 figure illustrated on the graph above for Dublin on 18 September.
https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/f5a92-statement-from-the-national-public-health-emergency-team-thursday-8-october/#cases-by-county
So basically, you are reading an awful lot into the apparent dip from October 6-8, and a lot less into the trend from 18 September to October 6.
There has been no exponential growth in Dublin in the past 7 days. What is your point?
From 30th September to 6th October, which would have been among the most up-to-date figures to hand when this claim was made, the numbers in Dublin per your link went from 166 to 217.
From 23 September to 6th October, they went from 162 to 217.
So there was a consistency in general from 23-30 September in Dublin of cases, and then a big increase in the following week.
Suffice to say; this is not at all reflected in your graph, but it is described in the link you provided.
Per your link, “Taking the daily rates from September 18 to October 8, cases are currently trending downward,” is at best incomplete, and at worst inaccurate. Also, we could say that over the period 5-6 October, cases in Dublin did indeed double, from 110 to 217. These would have been the most up-to-date figures that were being referred to.
There are big differences between days so you need to be careful. This is why you should look at 7-day averages – it smooths out any daily differences and gives a more fair picture.
So the link you state you have taken your figures from gives different numbers from what’s in your graph
https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/20f2e0-updates-on-covid-19-coronavirus-since-january-2020/#october
Your graph states that on 4 October Dublin saw approximately ca. 210 cases. Your link states 130
Your graph states that on 5 October Dublin saw approximately ca. 100 cases. Your link states 110.
Your graph states that on 6 October Dublin saw approximately ca. 125 cases. Your link states 217.
Mathness indeed.
Commenter #1 – you are my favourite. Not enough kudos for this sterling work (for some reason I think people will interpret this comment as sarcastic – it is not, genuinely bravo)
I am screenshotting this and sending it to my parents.
Better off to send it to your year head – he can take it into account when the next years LC results are being calculated.
Good idea
I think you have your numbers mixed up link states on the 6th 130 new cases in dublin and on the 4th 224
https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/22c2a-statement-from-the-national-public-health-emergency-team-sunday-4-october/
https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/675cb-statement-from-the-national-public-health-emergency-team-tuesday-6-october/
If you scroll to the bottom of the county be county table, you’ll see that the figures quoted are generally for 2 days prior to the overall document. So that 224 figure is for 2 October, and the 130 for 4 October
In March this thing came out of the blue. We were asked to curtail our lives on the basis that we could “flatten the curve” giving the government time to put measures in place: an effecient testing and tracing regime, proper quaranting of new arrivals, sorting Direct Provision, shielding of nursing homes, extra ICU beds etc….
Now its October and we a being asked to curtail our lives on the basis that we can “slow the spread” giving the government time to put measures in place: an effcient testing and tracing regime, proper quaranting of new arrivals, sorting Direct Provision, shielding of nursing homes, extra ICU beds etc….
I get why people are jaded.
Wait till we’re here again in April 2021 and then again Oct 2021.
At that stage they will be fining tens of thousands in order to keep their unmovable stance on this issue supported.
All that graph proves is that level 3 restrictions seems to have worked in Dublin. Other locations, that were on level 2 restrictions, did experience exponential growth.
This write-up falls victim to the same vices it is accusing RTE and others of indulging. I don’t disagree with the conclusion but it is likely the case that even if level 3 is having a positive effect, no major acknowledgement is advised until this progress is significant and perceptible so that there is not yet another slide into complacency. I don’t yet see significant progress in the right direction.
it is likely the case that even if level 3 is having a positive effect,
This is what Ivor Cummins calls the ‘Tiger Horn Deceit’.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_pFoaUiZoE
Lol. Why is it these opportunists and soothsayers all have YouTube accounts ready to monetise their “hot takes”. Sorry SOQ, you may live for this junk, I ain’t clicking.
So why go the bother of commenting on it then?
Like it or not, online video presentations are part and parcel of how people communicate and do business these days.
And like it or not, Ivor is making big waves all over the place- and more power to him for it. There is not many with his sort of reach about.
“Ivor is making big waves” – No, what he wants to make are the big bucks – off the backs of saps. This is truly the world of “alternative facts” for nothing other than personal gain. The fact you even mention the “number of views” as some marker of veracity, well that is kind of depressing- for you.
“alternative facts” endorsed by Professor Carl Heneghan, director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford?
The same Prof Heneghan who spoke at length to the Oireachtas Covid committee of course.
And now we have Ivor being incentivised with YouTube payments – the more videos he puts up the more money he makes.
Quite a nice little earner by the sounds of it.
And why shouldn’t he? The fella has a mortgage and five kids to feed.
Tell me, how many presentations have you done which have one and a half million views? And you can be certain that there were some pretty important people in there too.
You can’t trust Ivor because his videos are all about the clicks. The more outrageous they are – the more money he makes.
And you know this how? He put his neck on the line because he could see the bullpoo being pumped out by MSM and if he was wrong his credibility would have been shot- but he was right and a lot of people agree with him.
Yesterday you said doctors couldn’t be trusted because they were ‘allegedly’ being paid to send people for (unnecessary) tests.
But it’s totally above board for Ivor to get money for his viral videos because has a mortgage and five kids to feed?
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
So Cian makes his mind up, not on the content of the videos, but of the fact that they’re clicked.
All well and good, except that knockdowns (if done correctly) do work.
It is really simple. The virus is spread via interactions. Every time you interact with (effectively share space with) someone there are three variables that determine how likely it is that you’ll get infected:
1. What is the likelihood they are infected (this is how prevalent is the virus in general)
2. what is the likelihood they will pass it on to you (this is based on how long are you together, social distancing, hand-washing, humidity, masks, etc)
3. how susceptible are you to it (perhaps you are immune)
Over a given day or week, the last variable is:
4. How many people do you interact with in a given day/week.
Lockdowns are there to reduce #4 – if you interact with fewer people you are less likely to be in contact with an infected person. (also, if you *are* infected you have fewer people to infect).
A lockdown is less effective if people continue to see the same number of people – just in different places. e.g. if I usually meet 4 mate for pints in a pub.. but now we get cans and meet in one person’s house.
If the transmission route is as claimed then why was SARS-Cov-2 found in the sewage systems of cities long before they had an outbreak of CoVid-19? There are clearly other factors at play.
The plain fact is most of what we are told to do is complete bullpoo because otherwise, right now, Sweden’s hospitalisations and fatalities would be going through the roof- but they are not.
I don’t know about the SARS-Cov-2 found in the sewage system. But it doesn’t make sense – perhaps it was a false-positive?.
You can’t compare us to Sweden.
It has been found in more than one city- plenty of stories on it but I agree- if we are to believe what we are being told then it does not make sense- science has a habit of challenging belief based systems like that.
Why can we not compare to Sweden? Does this virus behave differently in Ireland to Sweden? And it is not just Sweden- Latvia never locked down- yet nobody talks about that.
Why can we not compare to Sweden?
I don’t know. But whenever you are asked why the Swedish deaths are 10+ times bigger than their neighbors (per million) you say we can’t compare.
You tell me why are Swedish deaths (582) larger than Norway (51), Finland (62), Denmark (115).
Lativa did lockdown.
March 2020: On 29 March, the government adopted a number of stricter regulations. Foremost, all persons must maintain a 2-meter distance and observe epidemiological safety measures in private and public events, as well as during public indoor and outdoor activities. […] New restrictions also prohibit all private arrangements (except funerals), public events, meetings, processions, pickets, indoor sports and religious activities.
May 2020: A mouth and nose cover would be required in public transport. *from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Latvia
I am not talking about six months ago I am talking about now- what is so different between the way SARS-Cov-2 behaves in Sweden and here? You know the answer- NONE.
“Contrary to many countries around the world, Latvia never issued mandatory stay-at-home orders, wide quarantine measures or lockdowns of the whole society”
“It seems Latvia was able to maintain the same low number of infections and deaths as neighbouring states without enacting similarly harsh measures as in Lithuania”
https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/1167272/dispatch-from-riga-latvia-tackles-covid-19-without-hard-lockdown-or-closing-bars
I suppose it depends on how you define lock down but they are regarded as being a successful softer approach.
your article also says:
“On March 12, Latvia declared a state of emergency. Three days later, it closed its border with Russia and Belarus.”
“…can still find cafes or bars open in Riga, but only if the owners are able to provide a two-metre distance between clients. There also can’t be more than one person per four square meters.
Not everybody can ensure these measures and many bars and restaurants are closed. Those who stay open, still get some visitors, althought noticebly many less than before the coronavirus crisis. Late night partying has also been stopped, with all venues ordered to shut their doors at 22:00.”
[sounds just like Ireland (outside Dublin) last Monday]
“The schools started to teach kids remotely via onlie platforms and government started special educational TV Channel Tava Klase, but entertainers, musicians and workout trainers are now operating from YouTube.”
I said Latvia never locked down- meaning a national lock down and yet they had better results than some who did- so what is the friggen point?
And the reason I say that is because Ireland is heading for another NATIONAL lock down if those NPHET clowns get their way.
@Cian – “Why can we not compare to Sweden?
I don’t know. But whenever you are asked why the Swedish deaths are 10+ times bigger than their neighbors (per million) you say we can’t compare.
You tell me why are Swedish deaths (582) larger than Norway (51), Finland (62), Denmark (115).”
Yet, Sweden has a lower death rate for Covid than the UK, Italy or Spain, which all pursued lockdown strategies. Lower than world leader Peru which imposed one of the earliest and strictest lockdowns in Latin America to stop the spread of coronavirus – but has still seen cases rise rapidly.
What are the actual stats involved:
Population: Sweden (10.23 million) : Ireland (4.9 million) / Ratio 2.08:1
Covid Deaths: Sweden (5,892) : Ireland (1,817) / Ratio 3.24:1
% over 65 in population: Sweden (20% – 2.04 million ) : Ireland (13.32% – 652K) / Ratio 1.5: 1
5892/2.04m : 0.28% – Sweden
1817/652K: 0.27% – Ireland
So, when one considers the actual population age profile and that the over 65s have borne the brunt of the deaths (97% over 65 in Ireland, with similar in Sweden), and compare the outcome for this age group in both populations, we find that it is almost identical, just 0.01% of a difference. How do you explain this in the context of your position on lockdowns?
Chicken or egg?
Latvia didn’t have a lockdown because they weren’t hit badly by the virus?
Latvia weren’t hit badly by the virus because they didn’t have a lockdown?
Latvia never had the numbers to require a total lockdown.
Their borders were closed down, and they didn’t have a huge number of cases. They went the NZ route.
@E’Matty
thanks. You didn’t address my point:
Sweden Vs Norway
or
Sweden Vs Finland
or
Sweden Vs Denmark
@ Cian, and you didn’t address mine. Why must Sweden only be compared to the other Scandanavian countries? Do you believe they have some genetic difference relevant to Covid which means they should be viewed solely in the context of one another? I am providing examples of other lockdown countries and comparing to Sweden, to show the deciding factor for better outcomes is clearly not lockdowns. You seek to limit the conversation solely to the Nordic countries but no reason for this is given?
I have also detailed how when we look at the relevant section of the population (ie. the over 65s, who are most adversely affected by the virus), we see a negligible, almost non-existent, difference between Sweden and Ireland (0.01%). This runs directly counter to the dominant narrative at play that Sweden fared so much worse than Ireland. We both lost a similar proportion of our over 65 population to the virus, so a similar outcome when like for like is compared.
Neil, from a psychological perspective some fear and anxiety have a role to play. If we had no fear or anxiety over COVID we would just continue our lives as normal.
Oh, they know that very well. This is a classic Project Fear exercise with misinformation and misrepresentation of facts by voices of authority to induce a state of fear in the populace so that they will accept the restructuring of their economic and social order. Social engineering 21st Century. The Great Reset, transitioning the world to a new global order and the Digital Age.
For the love of all that is sane and rational, give it a rest with the global conspiracy claptrap. I hate to break it to you, you are wasting your time and life.
Typical response from a member of the uneducated herd. Do yourself a favour and google the World Economic Forum and The Great Reset and then come back and tell me we are not experiencing a restructuring of the social and economic order during these times of Covid.” I hate to break it to you, you are wasting your time and life.” Oh right, I see you’re one of these “ignorance is bliss” types….
Chortle. To be fair, I didn’t really expect you to agree with me! Of course, you are the Oracle of Delphic proportions trying to enlighten us mere “sheeple”. That’s how it goes, yes…
Another feature of you “enlightened” lot are the constant pleas to “Google it” or strewing your posts with links to quacks on YouTube and their dramatic “hot takes”. On your bike goons.
Says the complaint contrarion.
Putting his trust in a mess of a government who routinely lie and cover their holes.
Don’t mind him, E’Matty.
You care about the future of mankind, he doesn’t.
And, he’s not very nice.
@MME – oh right, so you don’t understand what Google is then? You could just go direct to the World Economic Forum website too if search engines aren’t your thing. Or, are you one of these people who thinks information on the internet isn’t “real information”? It’s not real until the Irish Times or RTE tell you it’s real, eh? You do realise that just about every peer reviewed paper and book ever published are available on the internet, right?
“Sheeple” well, if the shoe fits…
@benblack – Thanks benblack. Mindless unthinking types like MME don’t bother me at all tbh. They actually provide the perfect counter voice to enable us to get our information out. When MME challenges my points, it merely allows me to elaborate further and provide even more detail. It’s not MME we’re working to convince. If MME didn’t exist, we’d have to invent them.
You do you E’Matty, however, at the risk of goading you even further, which is not my intention, your last reply is revelatory of level of delusion which is not going to serve you well. But, as I say, you do you.
@MME – right, still nothing substantive in your response I see. You think The Great Reset as proposed by the WEF and for which the information is publicly available, is some crazy “conspiracy theory”. Says all we need to know about you…
You do you E’Matty; knock yourself out!
The only people who like accountants are other accountants.
Well that’s me told
Neil
(；′⌒`)
Is this the same Tomas Ryan that got spanked by a Professor from Oxford on Prime Time ?
“The schools started to teach kids remotely via onlie platforms…”
With respect, Cian, the Freudian slip is rather good.
Not going to level 5 on Sunday is going to be disastrous for retail and Christmas shopping.
November is going to be lockdown month.
Should have done it now so we could have a Christmas.
FF/FG may be able to bullploppy the electorate but you cant bullypoopkins a virus.
Newsreaders are morons .
https://youtu.be/ordODDzVso8