Don’t Hate The Player

at

This morning.

UK cabinet minister Michael Gove corrects an error while outlining new severe Lockdown rules where people will be told to stay at home except for specific reasons.

Covid-19: English lockdown may last beyond 2 Dec, says Gove (BBC)

Meanwhile…

Alternatively…

Oh.

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20 thoughts on “Don’t Hate The Player

    1. Brother Barnabas

      “this is an irish website for Irish people”

      ???

      in fairness, charger, nobody has ever said that

      that would be a deplorable comment that, I’m fairly sure, BS wouldn’t let stand

      1. scottser

        it must have been a sugar rush bb. he’s been at the cake and ice cream again and he’s filled up the other sock. he’ll be back to bed now for a snooze but you can expect more nonsense later this afternoon.

  1. SOQ

    About that chart leaked to Simon Nolan- Graph in bottom left- COVID positive deaths in hospital- absolute & rolling weekly average & estimated admissions.

    Am I right I my reading that the predicted death rate on 26/10/2020 of a rolling 7 day average was between 1600 and 1800 PER DAY?

    Also Julia Hartley-Brewer is like the terrier at the postman’s leg- once she gets a grip, she just will not let go.

    Oh to have similar here.

      1. SOQ

        At this point I think most of it is a face saving exercise- just look at what they are doing in Liverpool- there is no reason for it.

        When you compare the opinions of Imperial and Kings- the second having what is regarded as closest to CSO data- they are deliberately doubling down so that when it burns out completely they can claim credit.

        There is some serious reputations on the line and that might work except for one word- Sweden. Farage has a nose and he smells blood of course.

        1. frank

          I have thought about it like that.
          They’ve got this so gigantically wrong that there is no way back. Remember back in March we were being foretold of a ‘Tsunami’ that was about to engulf us. It didn’t happen. Instead those that should have been protected weren’t and still aren’t.
          I think the brutal truth is that the virus will take those elderly / obese / vulnerable people anyway so it has to run it’s course. The slow death by a thousand cuts of useless measures taken to ‘stem the spread’ is just drawing out an inevitable process but it very unfortunately looks like that’s the route that has been plotted.
          If we had front loaded this back in April / May we’d be over it. Instead the apocalyptic fallout continues with no end in sight

          1. deluded

            Why are Italy considering another lockdown?
            I thought they had “front loaded” back in March/April… why have they not developed herd immunity?

          2. Cian

            @deluded
            It’s not called “herd immunity” any more because bad associations with 1000s of deaths… the new term is “Collective natural immunity”.

          3. deluded

            Perhaps you can answer that question Cian: why has Italy not developed collective natural immunity?

          4. Cian

            @deluded
            why has Italy not developed collective natural immunity?

            I’m not an engineer doctor, but I would guess that not enough people were infected. The March/April outbreak was in one part of the country. The current outbreaks seem to be in a different part (the bits nearest France has massive cases/100,000)

      1. Donnchadh

        SOQ, I think you’re reading that graph incorrectly. The death metrics are on the left-hand side, so around 150-200. The 1600-1800 figure refers to estimated hospital admissions.

        1. SOQ

          It is confusing because the word ‘rolling’ is red but also is the ‘Deaths- rolling 7 day’?

          You are probably correct but why is the ”Deaths- rolling 7 day’ even on that graph then?

          Also why does the header start with ‘COVID positive deaths in hospital’ if there no deaths represented on it?

          Not suggesting it is your work Donnchadh but if you or I presented that to a management team, they’d have us pulled up on it double quick.

          1. Cian

            The bottom left graph is showing three things:
            1. blue line: Deaths per day (left-hand axis going from 0 to 200)
            2. red line: Deaths rolling 7-day average (left hand axis going from 0 to 200)
            3. black: line: Estimated admissions (right-hand axis 0 to 1,200)

            The RED is 5-day rolling;
            the BLUE is absolute numbers.
            (both using the left-hand axis – which is also in red)

            The BLACK is admissions; (using the right-hand axis – which is also black)

          2. Donnchadh

            Deaths are represented on it, by the two relatively smooth lines (the numbers of deaths are on the left-hand side). The word ‘rolling’ is in red presumably to indicate that the red line tracks the rolling deaths.
            I don’t like that style of graph much. That said, if a graph seems to be showing a wildly implausible figure the first thing you need to do is read the small print.

          3. SOQ

            Ok I get it now but it is messy. It is mixing two scales on the one graph with different non related stats and estimates- what is the purpose of that?

            As for wildly implausible figures- plenty of those have been produced already, indulging as reason for England’s level five lockdowns.

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