It’s cool.
These things happen.
Via MailOnline:
…The stark modelling is understood to have single-handedly led to the decision to move away from herd immunity to a national lockdown on March 23.
But minutes from a SPI-M (Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling) meeting have shown that, a week earlier, the modellers remained ‘uncertain‘ of case numbers ‘due to data limitations’.
The team is also understood to have believed that the modelling only showed ‘proof of concept‘ that lockdowns could help deal with Covid, before warning that ‘further work would be required‘.
Following the release of its model, Imperial College held a press conference, followed by Prime Minister Boris Johnson ordering the public to avoid pubs, restaurants and non-essential social gatherings later the same day.
Doomsday prediction was based on ‘uncertain’ data (Mail Online)
The Daily Fail.
How can you trust that rag ?
Only read by right-wing gammons.
Circulation dropping in Ireland.
Etc, etc.
Hehx3™
Oh man,you really don’t understand basic math.
They still had 160K deaths so it was a reasonable concern.
And how many from what is now considered to be useless lockdowns?
Take 160k from 500k – if the number is less they weren’t useless.
Less than 6,000 people in the UK died FROM Covid. Even they didn’t die from Covid, as Pneumonia involves firstly, blooms of bacteria taking advantage of the Immune System being under pressure from the virus & secondly, a Cytokine Storm caused by the bacterial infection.
I won’t expect you to understand or acknowledge that, Nigel, because it’s science & you just do gossip, hearsay & superstition but science can’t accommodate your florid imagination, it’s stuck with facts & reason.
You’re some half-wit for one half-wit:
https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2022/01/26/to-say-only-17000-people-have-died-from-covid-19-is-highly-misleading/
I freely admit I do not understand most of the nonsense you post.
It would appear that the death toll from useless lockdowns (says the WHO). Damn that Roger Daltry bloke) will be far higher than the unreliably counted deaths directly due to Covid.
…I know nothing about medicine (except it was only the brightest and best that got accepted to study it) but I do know a bit about maths…I hope the self-appointed Broadsheet medical experts know more about their chosen subject because their knowledge of simple mathematical concepts was embarrassing at best…
BS’s mathmatical prowess is second only their geographical knowledge of dublin’s northside.
I see you have the broad brush out today.
But 150000-180000 died with precautions and vaccination (and vaxx injuries too… obviously…)
but for the 1 millionth time – that number includes a lot of people who died of other causes, not from covid. In the UK they counted any cause of death within 28 days of a positive PCR test (many at 45 cycles). The real number of covid deaths is far lower than reported.
Based on the same models, Sweden should have had 85,000 deaths in 3 months but they only had something like 5,000 and their overall total deaths for 2020 and 2021 is one of the lowest in Europe. It’s even lower than their lockdown neighbour Denmark.
For the 1 millionth time, being old or disabled or having a medical condition that made you vulnerable to covid are not ‘other causes.’
Also, your study of the comparative death rates between different countries under different conditions seems both shallow and tailored to fit your conclusions.
Dying from long term terminal cancer with a positive PCR test with zero covid symptoms is not a covid death. This is an example of what I’m talking about.
On your second non point, I’m talking about total deaths in all countries compared over many years.
It’s just the facts and you refuse accept it.
Real deaths have been undercounted.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker
Not sure you’re qualified to judge – cancer pateints are incredibly vulnerable.
Sure, it’s a comparison. A selective, highly limited comparison. Without actual caerful study and analysis, it’s just you pretending there are no other factors involved.
That’s not true for covid Tom2 – deaths have been overcounted for covid and undercounted for other causes. You should look at the data for yourself.
All the data I’ve seen cautions that due to reporting and testing issues both cases and deaths are being undercounted to varying degrees in different regions.
‘ All the data I’ve seen…..’
But, Nigel, you don’t read data that flags as not in keeping with your preconceptions, so you don’t get the overview.
Save your breath, your arguing with people that didn’t realise you can die from the flu until January this year
‘But, Nigel, you don’t read data that flags as not in keeping with your preconceptions’
How do I know it doesn’t keep in with my preconceptions if I don’t read it? Think it through, for feck’s sake.
Kali still does’tt think people can die from covid.
Because it’s flagged as to what the data is about. Duh!
How many times have you refused to read links provided here? Don’t talk rot Nigel. You’ve your safe reading list.
Oh all the time, but not because I’m worried they’ll prove me wrong, (and it’s not ‘me’ being proved wrong, but the scientists and experts who have persuaded me that they’re correct) but because it only takes following one or two to show whose links aren’t worth following.
Funny how you say Bono’s info is tailored to fit your conclusions when that has been your modus operandi since you first started posting here. Just saying something does not make it true. Still no plans?
Bono’s info is tailored to fit his conclusions not mine. I’m not sure what conclusions of mine you’re referring to, unless it’s the controversial view that the pandemic is real.
Irishman Graham Neary highlighted the absurd unreliability of Ferguson & Co’s methodology back in Aug 2020. They came up with their estimate of the infection fatality ratio through extrapolating from a total of just 6 Covid cases on 6 flights.
Thread is worth a read (contains screenshots of Imperial College London’s report) :
https://twitter.com/grahamneary/status/1294645063985836032
“As we live through the consequences of economic depression and the (hopefully temporary) destruction of our way of life, remember that it all comes back to the belief that finding six people with Covid on six flights was a good way to estimate how many people had the disease.”
It was a classic case of massaging the data to fit the policy (of lockdown) which had already been decided upon.
Thanks for this.
A website that tells us that the vaccine has given us AIDs and uses pull up banners a out routine HIV testing has some neck accusing others of “fear porn”.
So many people still don’t understand the meaning of risk. The future is always uncertain this was prediction of a potential worst case scenario without action. That the actual number of deaths was lower though still very considerable is what you would expect after action was taken.
That is on the assumption that lockdowns worked, when all indications now are that they did not. There is no correlation between severity of restrictions and serious illness / deaths. There does appear to be a correlation between vaccines and illness/ fatalities however.
JUST IN – Large German health insurance company analyzed data from 10.9 million insured individuals regarding vaccination complications.
The new data is “alarming,” says BKK board member Schöfbeck in a report by WELT.
https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1496555793092685824
You’re a great man for the facts. Explain to us again how the FDA have banned plasma donations from vaccinated people?
(he has rely on ‘google translate’ or some far right yank site to even attempt,to comprehend the bad translation from German,never mind the maths,clearly not a product of St Killians:)
yeah lets discuss german insurance companies actuarial predictions,meanwhile on a fringe far right site in Irl they are whining and moaning about ‘bad math’ in lockdown’s, which they don’t also understand.
“a fringe far right site in Irl” you seem to spend an awful amount of time on eh?
I think the status that these modellers now enjoy can be calculated, more accurately than they can manage, by the fact that there’s a person on a site I visit who uses the nom de plume NEIL FERGUSON’S CALCULATOR.
Witty but not Whitty.