Tonight’s Irish Times/Ipsos General Election 2016 exit poll

FYI: 2011 results (source Wikipedia)

Tonight’s poll

What does it all mean?

Shane Heneghan writes:

This is sensational. The poll taken at 200 locations across the countriy with a sample size of 5,260 shows Fine Gael (26.1%), Fianna Fail (22.9%) and Labour (7.8%) on a combined total of just 56.8%.

Sinn Fein on 14.1% have to be somewhat disappointed even if this would represent a significant leap forward in Dáil representation.

Of the smaller parties, the Greens may be happiest on 3.5% – almost double what they got in 2011 and will be looking forward to getting back to the Dáil.

The big winner has to be the group of independents and others on a staggering 28%.

This unprecedented group of loose alliances and independents is likely to be seen as the chief stumbling block on the way to formation of a government- it may even make the election of a Ceann Comairle a bit tedious.

If this result is replicated tomorrow, we can look forward to a high turn over of deputies and many “Portillo moments” with many unexpected newbies triumphing as well.

On these numbers, it’s hard to think of any other possible result than some arrangement between the two civil war parties and a second election in a few months.

It hardly seems worthwhile taking down the posters.

Shane Heneghan is a Galway-based psephologist

Election 2016: Irish Times exit poll shows Coalition well short of overall majority (Irish Times)

Irish Gothic by James M Chimney (apols to Grant Wood)

Meanwhile…

Michael Ring says he is open to Fianna Fail and Fine Gael coalition on @NewstalkFM

— Sarah Bardon (@SarahBardon) February 26, 2016