It’s Been Emotional

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Tonight’s Irish Times/Ipsos General Election 2016 exit poll

Screen Shot 2016-02-27 at 02.17.39

FYI: 2011 results (source Wikipedia)

Tonight’s poll

What does it all mean?

Shane Heneghan writes:

This is sensational. The poll taken at 200 locations across the countriy with a sample size of 5,260 shows Fine Gael (26.1%), Fianna Fail (22.9%) and Labour (7.8%) on a combined total of just 56.8%.

Sinn Fein on 14.1% have to be somewhat disappointed even if this would represent a significant leap forward in Dáil representation.

Of the smaller parties, the Greens may be happiest on 3.5% – almost double what they got in 2011 and will be looking forward to getting back to the Dáil.

The big winner has to be the group of independents and others on a staggering 28%.

This unprecedented group of loose alliances and independents is likely to be seen as the chief stumbling block on the way to formation of a government- it may even make the election of a Ceann Comairle a bit tedious.

If this result is replicated tomorrow, we can look forward to a high turn over of deputies and many “Portillo moments” with many unexpected newbies triumphing as well.

On these numbers, it’s hard to think of any other possible result than some arrangement between the two civil war parties and a second election in a few months.

It hardly seems worthwhile taking down the posters.

Shane Heneghan is a Galway-based psephologist

Election 2016: Irish Times exit poll shows Coalition well short of overall majority (Irish Times)

Irish Gothic by James M Chimney (apols to Grant Wood)

Meanwhile…

69 thoughts on “It’s Been Emotional

    1. Pablo Pistachio

      What exactly do you mean by “majority party”? This isn’t the U.S.
      The government, as predicted, have taken a hammering.

    2. Boredwithmorons

      Do you know the difference between “majority” and “plurality”?

      They are the biggest party. 26.1% is not a majority.

  1. perricrisptayto

    Mrs Merkel will be so pleased.
    It will take another 10 years to effect a change in mindsets, but by then it will be too late anyway.
    In the meantime, enjoy.

  2. Medium Sized C

    Fianna Fails card to play. With the gene pool independents and the current government parties that is a Dáil. We will see what happens tomorrow.

  3. sǝɯǝɯʇɐpɐq

    ‘On these numbers, it’s hard to think of any other possible result than some arrangement between the two civil war parties and a second election in a few months.’

    Eh, excuse me…ahem…
    -What have I been saying for months?

    Let me make another prediction…
    -Next time the Working-Class will be better motivated.
    A quiet revolution will ensue.

    I’m never wrong.

    1. sǝɯǝɯʇɐpɐq

      Hang on…
      I’ve just realised that my last comment is like a ‘fun-size’ Frilly Friday.

      Do I get a prize?

    2. ahyeah

      Nah. That’s the problem right there – as long as you can get a Big Mac for €1, the working class won’t ever be motivated enough to do anything. “Lazyness”, some say. Other priorities, I say.

  4. Frilly Keane

    34.6% ? Right To Change grouping?
    + SocieD’s 2.8% making 37.2%

    Civil War hounds @48%
    Christ.
    Dangerous times lads

  5. Pablo Pistachio

    Force FF/FG to form a government. If you could drag Renua into it too we’re into bonus territory. Like rats in a box they will eat each other alive and destroy each other.

    Leaving almost the entire opposition as left wing TDs and ready to sweep into power when the government eventually collapses.

    It’s not the best short term for the country. Long term, it’s for the best.

    1. Anomanomanom

      Seriously, long term it would be like setting of a nuke. I haven’t and currently don’t like all the cuts/policies of this government but if you think a government of all those nut jobs, a few are good TDs, is better then your mental.

  6. Steve

    Mental results!!! Have to admit disappointed with FG turnout and still can’t believe so many people are still willing to give the irregulars a vote after the crash.

    But anyway great news for the SD and the greens !

      1. Harry Molloy

        Well if a mush mash of independentts,, socialists and sinners do get in, it won’t be for long anyway

        1. Same old same old

          You don’t get it. Your pathetic grubby sinecures are no more. The people have rejected all the establishment parties and demand a new form of politics.

          1. Same old same old

            What a load of crap. Your granny’s love is “stability”. The fact is the last 5 years have witnessed a decimation in the social fabric of the country with poor people and medical card holders being thrown out on the street to die like dogs. You people are animals and you need to be annihilated

          2. Harry Molloy

            Can we not have a Congress ruin without you being aggressive? We can surely be civil with each other.

            How could anyone not want stability, in whatever government there is. The opposite is chaos but maybe if you have damn all happening in your life then this is what you do want.

            Social fabric pulled apart my arse, theres a million things that could be done better in this country but it has been getting better year on year

          3. ethereal_myst

            I want stability…stability of rental market, stability of health services, stability of general services, stability of education and stability of property prices……FG/Liebour gave us none of these

          4. Same old same old

            It’s the mindless pigeonholing of complex political decisions into meaningless empty false binary dichotomies like “stability” vs “chaos” that attracts the opprobrium. I’m going to give you stability alright and I’m going to give it you good and hard.

          5. Harry Molloy

            By stability I mean a goverment, Any goverment, that will last the full term. And to-do that in a coalition, which it no doubt will be, means compromise with each I her and a mature realization hat not every issue can be a red line issue.

            Think we can all agree that would be a good thing.

          6. Same old same old

            ps I loved your appeal for civility swiftly followed by “social fabric me arse”

            Nice one. I particularly like it when your thugs let the mask slip.

    1. Fergus the magic postman

      Anybody who is shocked by these results, is as in touch with reality as FG & Labour themselves, ie. not at all.

      You cannot treat ordinary people who disagree with your policies with contempt, & then expect them to vote for your party. You reap what you sow.

  7. Deluded

    Who would you favour now for coalition with FG? I’ll presume not SF but would you reject working with certain others?

        1. Deluded

          Thank you Steve, that’s an interesting idea. It’s also a system that works in some EU democracies. We’ve certainly come a long way from FF majority governments.

          1. martco

            REALLY hope they don’t fall into a trap like that

            by looks of it if there’s another election shortly they’ll have an instant chance to boost their numbers by running more candidates

            I didn’t have an SD candidate to vote for and it p*ssed me off (for them) that I didn’t as I wanted to show support for Catherine Murphy…and asking around the place nearly everyone I spoke to said the same thing about it being a pity there wasn’t a way to vote for them

          2. Lilly

            Why, I wonder, had they no one in Dun Laoghaire? Is it a question of not having someone suitable who shares their outlook available to run or is it a question of finances, only being able to fund a limited number of candidates?

  8. Bobby

    Remember that time when the Socialists won the elections in Spain? Business’ and Franco were not happy, they ended the new Republic as soon as it was born. Remember the Popular Unity government in Chile? Overthrown by the US, Junta installed. Remember when Syriza won the election in Greece? Oh yeah, remember when Hamas won the election in Gaza too.. Etc etc.

    Voting every few years is the most pathetic contribution you can make to political life, and probably the singular most ineffective way of changing anything. If Europe voted far left across the board, national parliaments would become stripped of their already limited economic powers. Remember that old saying, if voting changed anything they’d make it illegal.

    Most adults actually have some faith in parliamentary democracy, even though very little decision making happens there that can be implemented in the real world unless vetted by lunatic billionaires and faceless and unaccountable corporations.

    1. Deluded

      ‘”Tis better to have voted and lost than never to have voted at all” -< One Man and His Horse Genghis Khan.
      If 60% of people vote centre-right then you are giving no chance to the other 40% by abstaining.

      1. brownbull

        Bobby your conspiracy theory is based on the notion that Europe might vote far left across the board but this will never happen as the majority of people do not want that

    2. :-Joe

      Ahhh… Bobby don’t be so pessimistic and fatalistic…

      Your Business show on Newstalk and Dragon’s den is a lot of fun and brings a lot of hope to entrepreneurs.
      & If I was forced, I’d rather drink in your coffee shop than starFecks.

      Yes the vote is somewhat meaningless unless you can mobilise the people outside the system of established propaganda but there’s plenty of revolutions that have happened and continue to happen to show it’s not a waste of time.

      If you don’t keep pushing back now it’s even more hard toil later on.

      :-J

  9. martco

    the stattos on rte are thinking that SD’s will score enough for speaking rights and funding…straw poll locally everyone said that they’d have given a high if not top pref to SD even if they’d never seen/heard of them simply because of Catherine & Donnelly

    1. martco

      …stupid phone….point being SDs didn’t/couldn’t run enough candidates to meet demand so to speak

    2. Lorcan Nagle

      One person I work with hadn’t even heard of the SocDems till yesterday morning, she liked their piolicies based on their website though.

    1. Same old same old

      He looks like a snail on those posters – am I the only one who noticed that? Airbrushed to oblivion revealing the empty shell of a man who was there all along

  10. :-Joe

    Be opposed to coalition with the establishment or kiss your political reputation goodbye….
    Unless you’r already backward-minded enough to be voting for this the first place….

    Hopefully the bhoys party [FG/FF] + whoever is dumb enough to go into coalition with them will drive inequality in so much deeper by the next cycle, that the decent politicians will be forced to create a credible organised and focused alternative to challenge them as the next majority government.

    Political power centres are very easily overcome with enough of the will of of the people.

    Political change can only happen when people demand it.

    People need to become active citizens and not passive bystanders living with false hope that it will eventually get done or someone else will do it .

    :-J

  11. Boba Fettucine

    Eoin O Broin proving that Politics is show business for ugly people. His band The Four Men couldn’t make it even with band mate Simon’s then mega wealthy dad Harry Crosbie bankrolling them and using his industry connections to grease the wheels.

    Some may wonder how as an SF lackey he only draws the average industrial wage and yet can wear All Saints shirts (€100+) on RTE?

    Of course as a well educated upper-middle-class Blackrock boy from Monkstown (or Cabinteely if you read his wiki) he can rely on Mater and Pater’s money in perpetuity while enjoying the frisson of his dilettante dalliance with the revolution.

    Hipster H-Block.

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