Tag Archives: RTE predictions


Sinn Féin TDs elected last week

How wrong?

Horribly wrong.

Ahead of the general election, RTÉ’s political team predicted how the vote would go in each constituency online.

Many of RTÉ’s staff based their predictions on the 2019 local elections, during which Sinn Féin lost 78 seats across the country.

Here are some of the State broadcaster’s predictions versus the eventual results…

Cork East – four seats

RTÉ predicted: 2, Fianna Fáil (Kevin O’Keeffe and James O’Connor); 1, Fine Gael (David Stanton); 1, Labour (Seán Sherlock).

Of Sinn Féin TD and candidate Pat Buckley, the station said:

“Buckley stepped in as a new broom and kept the Sinn Fein seat in 2016. But his profile on the ground is said to be not what it needs to be…”

The result: Mr Buckley topped the poll and was elected on the first count with 12,587 votes, 23.1% of the first preference votes.

Labour’s Seán Sherlock took the second seat, Fine Gael’s David Stanton took the third and Fianna Fáil’s took the fourth seat – all on the eighth count.

Dublin Central – four seats

RTÉ predicted: 1, Fine Gael (Paschal Donohoe); 1, Sinn Féin (Mary Lou McDonald); and a battle between Social Democrats (Gary Gannon), Fianna Fáil (Mary Fitzpatrick) and Green Party (Nessa Hourigan) for the final two seats.

Of Sinn Féin candidate Mary Lou McDonald, the station said:

“Political observers will be closely watching the Sinn Féin leader’s vote after a series of disappointing results for the party in last May’s local elections. On that occasion, Sinn Féin said the party had failed to get its vote out. But recent opinion polls point to improved prospects for the party.”

The result: Mary Lou McDonald topped the poll and was elected on the first count with 11,223 votes, 35.7% of the first preference votes.

Green Party’s Neasa Hourigan took the second seat, Fine Gael’s Paschal Donohoe the third and Social Democrats’ Gary Gannon took the fourth, all on the ninth count.

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