Predictive Mess

at


Sinn Féin TDs elected last week

How wrong?

Horribly wrong.

Ahead of the general election, RTÉ’s political team predicted how the vote would go in each constituency online.

Many of RTÉ’s staff based their predictions on the 2019 local elections, during which Sinn Féin lost 78 seats across the country.

Here are some of the State broadcaster’s predictions versus the eventual results…

Cork East – four seats

RTÉ predicted: 2, Fianna Fáil (Kevin O’Keeffe and James O’Connor); 1, Fine Gael (David Stanton); 1, Labour (Seán Sherlock).

Of Sinn Féin TD and candidate Pat Buckley, the station said:

“Buckley stepped in as a new broom and kept the Sinn Fein seat in 2016. But his profile on the ground is said to be not what it needs to be…”

The result: Mr Buckley topped the poll and was elected on the first count with 12,587 votes, 23.1% of the first preference votes.

Labour’s Seán Sherlock took the second seat, Fine Gael’s David Stanton took the third and Fianna Fáil’s took the fourth seat – all on the eighth count.

Dublin Central – four seats

RTÉ predicted: 1, Fine Gael (Paschal Donohoe); 1, Sinn Féin (Mary Lou McDonald); and a battle between Social Democrats (Gary Gannon), Fianna Fáil (Mary Fitzpatrick) and Green Party (Nessa Hourigan) for the final two seats.

Of Sinn Féin candidate Mary Lou McDonald, the station said:

“Political observers will be closely watching the Sinn Féin leader’s vote after a series of disappointing results for the party in last May’s local elections. On that occasion, Sinn Féin said the party had failed to get its vote out. But recent opinion polls point to improved prospects for the party.”

The result: Mary Lou McDonald topped the poll and was elected on the first count with 11,223 votes, 35.7% of the first preference votes.

Green Party’s Neasa Hourigan took the second seat, Fine Gael’s Paschal Donohoe the third and Social Democrats’ Gary Gannon took the fourth, all on the ninth count.

Kildare North – four seats

RTÉ predicted: 1, Social Democrats (Catherine Murphy), 2, Fianna Fáil (Frank O’Rourke and James Lawless) and a battle between Fine Gael (Brendan Durkan) and Greens (Vincent P Martin) for the final seat.

Of Sinn Féin candidate Réada Cronin, the station said:

“Social Care worker Réada Cronin (Maynooth) is the Sinn Féin candidate. She failed in her bid to get re-elected on the council in Maynooth in the local elections getting only 510 votes and 4.5% of the vote for the party. However in 2016 she got 6.55% of the vote and with Sinn Féin doing much better in the polls she will be hoping to improve on that this time around.”

The result: Réada Cronin took the second seat on count 6 after winning 17.1% of the first preference votes.

Catherine Murphy, of the Social Democrats, topped the poll with 11,008 votes and 19.3% of the first preference votes. Fine Gael’s Bernard Durkan took the third seat and Fianna Fáil’s James Lawless the fourth.

Meath East – three seats

RTÉ predicted: That there would be no change and that Fine Gael’s Regina Doherty and Helen McEntee, and Fianna Fáil’s Thomas Byrne would retain their seats.

Of Sinn Féin candidate Darren O’Rourke, the station said:

“Sinn Féin’s candidate Darren O’Rourke came fourth in Meath East in 2016. He got 1,050 votes less than Regina Doherty. If the wind is behind his party on polling day, there is a chance that he could take the last seat here at Regina Doherty’s expense.

“However, that would mean unseating a Cabinet minister in a three-seat constituency so it may be asking too much.”

The result: Sinn Féin’s Darren O’Rourke topped the poll, taking 24.4% of the first preference votes. He was elected on the second count.

Fine Gael’s Helen McEntee took the second seat and Fianna Fáil’s Thomas Byrne the third, both on the seventh count. Regina Doherty was eliminated on the sixth count.

Tipperary – five seats

RTÉ predicted: 2, Independents (Michael Lowry and Mattie McGrath); 1, Labour (Alan Kelly); 1, Fianna Fáil (Jackie Cahill) and a battle between two Fine Gael candidates (Garret Ahearn and Mary Newman Julian) and another Independent (Séamus Healy) for the fifth seat.

Of Sinn Féin candidate Martin Browne, the station said:

“Sinn Féin changed course when their previously-selected candidate flopped last year and Cashel-based Martin Browne is now the standard-bearer. Again, he may not have enough recognition factor county-wide but, again, if Sinn Féin are having a barnstormer nationally, he could come into the equation.”

The result: Sinn Féin’s Martin Browne took the third seat when he was elected on the eighth count. He won 12.2% of the first preference votes (the second highest figure).

Independent Michael Lowry was elected on the first count with 18.1% of the first preference votes while Independent Mattie McGrath took the second seat on the eighth count after winning 11.4% of the first preference votes.

Labour’s Alan Kelly took the fourth seat and Fianna Fáil’s Jackie Cahill the fifth.

Carlow/Kilkenny – five seats

RTÉ predicted: 2, Fianna Fáil (between John McGuinness, Bobby Aylward and Jennifer Murnane-O’Connor); 2, Fine Gael (Pat Deering and John Paul Phelan) and 1, Sinn Féin (Kathleen Funchion).

Of Sinn Féin candidate Kathleen Funchion, the station said:

“A series of opinion polls throughout the first half of the Election 2020 campaign have indicated support for Sinn Féin is increasing. With support hovering around 20 per cent, that should indicate a safe seat in a five-seat constituency. Kathleen Funchion should be safe if national opinion poll figures were replicated here.

“But a look at last year’s local election results does give Sinn Féin cause for concern. Polling at just 6 per cent in Kilkenny, the party lost all three of its council seats there last year. Similarly in Carlow, on just 8 per cent of the vote, Sinn Féin lost its two council seats.”

The result: Sinn Féin’s Kathleen Funchion topped the poll and was elected on the first count with 17,493 votes, 23.8% of the first preference votes.

Fianna Fáil’s John McGuinness took the second seat on the sixth count; Fine Gael’s John Paul Phelan took the third on the eighth count; Fianna Fáil’s Jennifer Murnane O’Connor took the fourth seat, also on the eighth count; and Malcolm Noonan, of the Green Party, took the fifth seat on the tenth count.

Dublin Fingal – five seats

RTÉ predicted: 1, Fianna Fáil (Darragh O’Brien); 1, Greens (Joe O’Brien); 1, Labour (Duncan Smith); 1, Fine Gael (Alan Farrell or James Reilly) and a battle between Fianna Fáil senator Lorraine Clifford-Lee, Independents 4 Change Dean Mulligan and Sinn Féin’s Louise O’Reilly for the fifth seat.

Of Sinn Féin’s Louise O’Reilly, the station said:

Louise O’Reilly is gone. However, as one of Sinn Féin’s strongest Dáil performers and with a national profile as the party’s health spokesperson, she could be a thrown a lifeline by those who once voted for [new MEP Clare] Daly.”

The result: Sinn Féin’s Louise O’Reilly topped the poll and was voted on the first count after winning 24.9% of the first preference votes.

The Green Party’s Joe O’Brien got the second seat while Fianna Fáil’s Darragh O’Brien got the third, both after the eight count. Fine Gael’s Alan Farrell took the fourth seat after the 11th count and Labour’s Duncan Smith took the fifth after the 12th count. Clifford-Lee was eliminated after the 10th count.

Kildare South – four seats

RTÉ predicted: [Fianna Fáil’s Seán Ó Fearghail as former Ceann Comhairle was automatically returned] 1, Fianna Fáil (Fiona Loughlin); 1, Fine Gael (Martin Heydon) and a battle between Labour’s Mark Wall, Sinn Féin’s Patricia Ryan, the Green Party and Independents for the final seat.

Of Sinn Féin’s Patricia Ryan, the station said:

“Patricia Ryan (Monasterevin) of Sinn Féin got 11.60% of the vote in 2016 with 3,250 first preference votes. She was eliminated at the end of the fifth count at that stage with just 321 votes between her and Wall.

“However it is worth noting that Labour got 12.8% of the vote in the Kildare local elections compared with 4.5% for Sinn Féin. Mark Wall topped the poll in the Athy ward with Patricia Ryan being elected to the council on the fifth count in Kildare.”

The result: Sinn Féin’s Patricia Ryan topped the poll with 21.5% of the first preference votes and was elected on the sixth count.

Fine Gael Martin Heydon took the second seat and Independent Cathal Berry took the third, both on the eighth count.

Longford-Westmeath – four seats

RTÉ predicted: 2, Fianna Fáil (Robert Troy and Joe Flaherty); 1, Fine Gael (Peter Burke); and 1 Independent (Kevin ‘Boxer’ Moran).

Of Sinn Féin candidate Sorca Clarke, the station said:

“Sinn Féin is standing one candidate, Sorca Clarke, who is based in Mullingar. She is a former councillor but lost her seat in last year’s local election.”

The result: Sinn Féin’s Sorca Clarke topped the poll and was elected after the first count winning 11,848 votes, 21% of the first preference votes.

Fianna Fáil’s Joe Flaherty took the second seat, Fine Gael’s Peter Burke the third and Fianna Fáil’s Robert Troy, all after the 10th count.

Meath West – three seats

RTÉ predicted: 1, Fianna Fáil (Shane Cassels); 1, Fine Gael (Damien English) and a battle between Aontú (Peadar Tóibín) and Sinn Féin (Johnny Guirke) for the third seat.

Of Sinn Féin candidate Johnny Guirke, the station said:

“Candidate Johnny Guirke is a Meath County Councillor, re-elected last May. He was selected for a General Election run at a convention in Navan last October.”

The result: Sinn Féin’s Johnny Guirke topped the poll and was elected after the first count with 12,652 votes or 30.5% of the first preference votes.

Aontú’s Peadar Tóibín took the second seat and Fine Gael’s Damien English took the third, both after the sixth count.

Dublin Bay North – five seats

RTÉ predicted: 1, Fine Gael (Richard Bruton); 1, Fianna Fáil (Seán Haughey); 1, Green (David Healy) and a battle between Sinn Féin’s Denise Mitchell and Labour Senator Aodhán Ó Ríordáin for the final seat.

Of the Sinn Féin candidate Denise Mitchell, the station said:

“Sinn Féin TD Denise Mitchell and Labour Senator Aodhan Ó Ríordáin are for now both well placed to be elected. However, a lot will depend on where the vote normally won by the non-running Finian McGrath and Tommy Broughan goes.”

The result: Sinn Féin’s Denise Mitchell was elected after topping the poll and on the first count with 21,344 votes, 29.8% of the first preference votes.

Fine Gael’s Richard Bruton took the second seat on the 10th count; Social Democrats’ Cian O’Callaghan took the third; Labour’s Aodhán Ó Ríordáin took the fourth; and Fianna Fáil’s Seán Haughey took the final seat, all on the 14th count.

Dublin Mid-West – four seats

RTÉ predicted: 1, Sinn Féin (Eoin Ó Broin); 1, Fianna Fáil (John Curran) and a battle for final two seats between Fine Gael’s Emer Higgins, PBP’s Gino Kenny, Sinn Féin’s Mark Ward and Independent Paul Gogarty.

Of Sinn Féin candidates, Eoin Ó Broin and Mark Ward, the station said:

“Newly elected TD Mark Ward may be seen by some as a likely second victory in the constituency for Sinn Féin after cruising home in the November by-election with 24% of first preference votes, and there is some merit to the argument.

“However, it is an open question if the party’s vote management can ensure both his and Ó Broin’s seat are held, in part because a significant part of Ward’s vote is likely to have been party rather than candidate based.

“It will also not have gone unnoticed that Ó Broin himself played a large role in Ward’s behind the scenes campaign – something he is unlikely to have done if he was in any real danger of being usurped.

This means that unless Sinn Féin can find a way to shore up both seats then, through circumstance rather than ability, Ward’s time as a TD may be one of the shortest in recent memory.”

The result: Eoin Ó Broin and Mark Ward took the top two seats. O’Broin topped the poll and was elected after the first count with 11,842 votes, or 26.1% of the first-preference votes. Ward was elected on the second count after winning 16.8% of the first-preference votes.

Fine Gael’s Emer Higgins took the third seat after the ninth count and Gino Kenny took the fourth, also after the ninth count.

Galway West – five seats

RTÉ predicted: 1, Fianna Fáil (Eamon Ó Cuív); 1, Fine Gael (Seán Kyne); 2, Independent (Noel Grealish and Catherine Connolly); 1, Green Party (Pauline O’Reilly).

Of Sinn Féin candidate Mairéad Farrell, the station said:

“While the polls suggest a surge for Sinn Féin nationally, it would want to be an extremely good day to win a seat here. Their candidate in 2016, Trevor Ó Clochartaigh has since left the party and the party lost all three of its council seats. Among those to lose their council seat was Mairead Farrell – meaning it will be a tall order for her to win a seat as their general election candidate.”

The result: Fianna Fáil’s Eamon Ó Cuív won the first seat, Independent Noel Grealish took the second and Sinn Féin’s Mairéad Farrell took the third, all after the eighth count.

Independent Catherine Connolly took the fourth after the 12th count and Fine Gael’s Hildegarde Naughton took the fifth after the 13th count.

Roscommon-Galway – three seats

RTE predicted: All three sitting TDs would retain their seats – Independents Michael Fitzmaurice and Denis Naughten and Fianna Fáil’s Eugene Murphy.

Of Sinn Féin candidate Claire Kerrane, the station said nothing.

The result: Michael Fitzmaurice topped the poll and was elected after the first count with 28.7% of the first-preference votes. Denis Naughten took the second seat after the fifth count.

Sinn Féin’s Claire Kerrane took the third after winning 17.5% of the first-preference votes. Fine Gael’s Eugene Murphy finished fourth and didn’t retain his seat.

Wexford – five seats

RTÉ predicted: All existing five TDs would return – Labour’s Brendan Howlin, Fianna Fáil’s James Browne and Malcolm Byrne, and Fine Gael’s Michael D’Arcy and Paul Kehoe.

Of Sinn Féin candidate Johnny Mythen, the station said:

“Sinn Féin’s Johnny Mythen narrowly missed out on the fifth seat in 2016 and got just over 10% of the vote in the November by-election. However, he lost his seat on Wexford County Council in the May local elections.”

The result: Sinn Féin’s Johnny Mythen topped the poll and was elected after the first count with 18,717 votes, 24.9% of the first-prefernce votes.

Labour’s Brendan Howlin took the second seat after the eighth count; Independent Verona Murphy took the third seat; Fianna Fáil’s James Browne took the fourth seat and Fine Gael’s Paul Kehoe took the fifth seat, all after the 11th count.

Clare – four seats

RTÉ predicted: 1, Fine Gael (Pat Breen), 2, Fianna Fáil (Timmy Dooley and Cathal Crowe) and a battle between Fine Gael’s Joe Carey and Independent Michael McNarama for the fourth seat.

Of Sinn Féin candidate Violet-Anne Wynne, the station said nothing.

The result: Sinn Féin’s Violet-Anne Wynne took the second seat, after the 10th count. She won 15.1% of the first-preference votes.

Independent Michael McNamara won the first seat on the 10th count after transfers. He won 12.3% of the first-preference votes.

Fianna Fáil’s Cathal Crowe took the third seat and Fine Gael’s Joe Carey took the fourth, also after the 10th count.

Cork South-Central – four seats

RTÉ predicted: 2, Fianna Fáil (Micheál Martin and Michael McGrath), 1, Fine Gael (Simon Coveney) and a battle between Sinn Féin’s Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire, Fine Gael’s Jerry Buttimer and Green Party councillor Lorna Bogue for the fourth seat, saying “this will be a nail-biter, and if Coveney and Buttimer don’t manage their vote, Bogue could just have the edge.”

Of Sinn Féin’s Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire, the station said:

“Buttimer, who is a voracious canvasser, is aiming to win back the seat he lost in 2016. To do that he will have to overtake, and stay ahead of Sinn Féin’s Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire, who surprised rivals by taking the last seat four years ago.

Ó Laoghaire will do well to repeat that feat in a constituency which is known to surprise. The Sinn Féin representation on Cork City Council was halved after last year’s local elections, indicating a decline in support for the party, and he will be relying heavily on his profile, and his record as a frontbench spokesman for his party to survive.

Ó Laoghaire will face a threat from Fine Gael but also from the Greens whose candidate Cllr Lorna Bogue will be hoping to emulate the achievement of her Green Party colleague Dan Boyle who took a seat in this constituency in 2002.”

The result: Sinn Féin’s Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire topped the poll and won the first seat after the first count with 24.6% of the first-preference votes.

Fianna Fáil’s Micheál Martin took the second seat after the sixth count; Fine Gael’s Simon Coveney took the third after the eighth count and Fianna Fáil’s Michael McGrath took the fourth, also after the eighth count.

Dublin North-West – three seats

RTÉ predicted: 1, Social Democrats (Róisín Shorthall) 1, Sinn Féin (Dessie Ellis) and a battle for the third seat between Fine Gael’s Noel Rock and Fianna Fáil’s Paul McAuliffe.

Of Sinn Féin’s Dessie Ellie, the station said:

“There has been some speculation that a dispute within the local Sinn Féin Cumann resulting in the resignation of then councillor Noeleen O Reilly may have weakened the organisation locally. The fact that she came in second place (with 1,741 votes) when she stood as an independent in the local elections behind the FF candidate Paul McAuliffe is an indication of her local support. This coupled with Sinn Féin’s performance in the local elections where they lost two of its three seats in the Ballymun Finglas Ward has led to speculation that Dessie Ellis’s seat may be vulnerable.”

The result: Sinn Féin’s Dessie Ellis topped the poll and won the first seat after the first count. He won 44.4% of the first-preference votes.

Social Democrats’ Róisín Shortall took the second seat, also after the first count. Fianna Fáil’s Paul McAuliffe took the third seat.

Dublin West – four seats

RTÉ predicted: 1, Fine Gael (Leo Varadkar), 1, Fianna Fáil (Jack Chambers) and 1, Solidarity-People Before Profit (Ruth Coppinger).

Of Sinn Féin candidate Paul Donnelly, the station said:

“Sinn Féin Councillor Paul Donnelly was regarded a racing certainty to take a seat here in 2016 – after topping the poll in the 2014 by-election. Alas, he eventually lost out by less than a thousand votes after taking 14.4% of the vote.

Donnelly had a strong local election [topped the poll in Ongar with 21%]; but Sinn Féin will need to have rediscovered its mojo – which appeared lost in those local elections – should Donnelly be in the shake-up. Other contenders are also more transfer-friendly.”

The result: Sinn Féin’s Paul Donnelly topped the poll and was elected after the first count, taking 28.6% of the first-preference votes.

Fine Gael’s Leo Varadkar took the second seat after the fifth count and Fianna Fáil’s Jack Chambers took the third after the sixth count.

Mayo – four seats

RTÉ predicted: “Even with impressive performers, it’s hard to see either the Greens or Sinn Féin change the status quo here.”

Of Sinn Féin candidate Rose Conway-Walsh, the station said:

“Sinn Féin’s Rose Conway Walsh has been a confident performer in the Seanad, but might also struggle to unseat Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil here.”

The result: Sinn Féin candidate took the second seat after the first count with 22.7% of the first-preference votes, just behind Fine Gael’s Michael Ring who took the first seat with 23% of the first-preference votes.

Fianna Fáil’s Dara Calleary took the third seat on the seventh count and Fine Gael’s Alan Dillon took the fourth, also after the seventh count.

Sligo-Leitrim – four seats

RTÉ predicted: 1, Fianna Fáil (Marc MacSharry); 1, Independent (Marian Harkin); and 2 between Fianna Fáil’s Eamon Scanlon, Sinn Féin’s Martin Kenny and Fine Gael’s Thomas Walsh.

Of Sinn Féin’s candidate Martin Walsh, the station said:

“Sinn Féin polled 17.8% here in 2016 between two candidates; with Leitrim’s Martin Kenny getting elected. Kenny is regarded as one of Sinn Fein’s strongest Dáil performers – but local tensions in his home patch over accommodation for asylum seekers may shrink his vote.”

The result: Sinn Féin’s Martin Kenny topped the poll and won the first seat after the first count with 24.8% of the first-preference votes.

Independent Marian Harkin took the second seat after the 14th count; Fianna Fáil’s Marc MacSharry took the third seat and Fine Gael’s Frankie Feighan took the fourth seat, both after the 15th count.

Predictions for each constituency in full here

Logo via RTÉ

25 thoughts on “Predictive Mess

  1. Grace

    Why would they assume that Louise O’Reilly was “gone”

    Seems an oddly certain assessment, which blew up in their faces after the vote

  2. :-Joe

    The state broadcaster, official media organisation of the establishment does it’s thing once again….
    … Asleep at the wheel/trough doing and getting it wrong as usual.

    It was more a biased statement of hopeful aspiration than a failed or inaccurate prediction..

    :-J

  3. Stephen

    To be fair no one saw it coming not even Sinn Fein,
    Not sure when those predictions were made can’t see any date but it wasn’t until late in the campaign that polls started to show increasing support for SF.
    Yest they got it wrong but I wouldn’t slag them too much for it.

    1. yupyup

      You’re right, they were made very early in the campaign I would say…….judging by the fact Wynne wasn’t even mentioned in the Clare prediction. She was added to the ticket very late in the day. I’d say this was the biggest surpise victory for SF.
      The Martin Kenny prediction was extremely poor and lazy. Very high profile in the Dáil and the area. He gained big support and sympathy around his stance regarding those protests and the subsequent attacks on him and his family.

  4. class wario

    While the results were a surprise to an extent, I do think that analysts paid to make calls like this should be aware of the sizeable enough groundswell of anti FF/FG sentiment amongst a wide spectrum of the population. I also wonder did SF themselves feel a bit pinned back by the non stop doomsday predictions made on their behalf by self-same analysts?

    Also worth noting is that European elections, Presidential elections (notwithstanding that this had a big ‘protest’ option do very well also) and single issue referendums rarely impact GEs in the way people expect them to.

  5. :-Joe

    Anyone know someone or some people who predicted the result or were even close?

    Random mystical or Octopus/Ground-hog/etc. related stories or evidence welcome too…

    :-J

  6. Barry the Hatchet

    It’s probably not fair to pick on RTE in particular as none of the major media or political organisations predicted this result. However, there’s a worthwhile conversation to be had about the nature of media coverage of politics. So much of it is self-proclaimed experts telling us with great certainty what the public is thinking, what politicians are thinking, and what politicians should do or will do, etc. And in reality, as we’ve just seen in this election and as we’ve seen in the past with reporting on the abortion referendum and the water charges, these “experts” are just spoofers. Their opinions add nothing to our discourse and in fact they probably harm it.

    1. Hansel

      There’s even more too, in that over the last number of elections I’ve seen (UK, US, Ireland) the prediction machines are way out of whack. Perhaps social media is really throwing them?

      The SF candidate in my area who did very well, I’d say I’d have shared RTE’s analysis. I’m near a constituency border and I’d have shared their analysis of that one too. But then again I’m not a paid political commentator.

      The issue might be that the media are too slow to react to changes on the ground now. Because some canvassers I talked to were telling me “it’s all SF”.
      So the politicians seemed to know what was going on in real-time alright.

      1. class wario

        I wonder would you (and I’m sure I’m the same) have only shared this view *because* of it being pushed by media outlets though? There is a certain circular quality to the way we discuss and analyse votes.

        1. Hansel

          Could be the case for sure Class Wario.
          I don’t tend to follow much mainstream media though: mostly online stuff (I read Broadsheet.ie for instance). Hard to know, because I only have my own perception.

    2. class wario

      Bang on. Similar issues in the UK where the commentariat is packed full of middle class types who are all pally with each other and authoritatively think their various milquetoast agreed stances represent the views of the majority of the public.

  7. Slightly Bemused

    I saw a funny tweet that went something along the lines of ‘You can see Pearse Doherty’s first preference votes from space!’

    I thought it was funny :)

  8. 01101101 01100011

    I have Ivan Yates on the radio cycling…20 mins ago he was talking with that journo Fionnan Sheahan…musing the ins and outs of FFG+()

    whilst casually musing he openly remarked that FG would fear being “kneecapped” by SF…

    Is he permitted to say something like that on live radio?

    pretty disgusting choice of words to use in a serious analysis piece I thought. the hate is unreal!!

    1. yupyup

      Sheehan and Yates, what a pair !

      Seperately, take care if cycling on the road with headphones……actually just don’t, please, for your own safety!

  9. V

    In fairness my own final GE20 prediction wasn’t my best performance

    Totally didn’t give SF a chance in Kildare South or Clare or with the second seat in DMW
    And I underestimated the scale of their surpluses
    Particularly Dessie Ellis’

    All that aside
    I don’t think anyone – not even some of the Candidates could have predicted the scale of the SF 1st Prefs
    Anyway – word out and about is another election by May

  10. class wario

    Serious Q: is Irish Twitter actually very representative of the electorate here? Seems like various campaigns like repeal and the latest vote/transfer left stuff end up with strong results in their favour. by comparison, Labour in the UK had huge online support and got hammered lately.

    1. Hansel

      I don’t think Twitter is representative.
      It seems (to me) to be a left-leaning medium in terms of its user base here.

  11. Formerly Known As @ireland.com

    Cork East – they said Kevin O’Keeffe was as close to a certainty as you get. He didn’t get elected, his 22yo running mate, James O’Connor did.

  12. V

    Go to Clare there

    Without making excuses – nobody gave Violet a hope, myself in particular

    but what’s worth noting there now is who RTÉ endorsed as a Poll Topper – Pat Breen, who was actually gone by the 2nd Count

    So is this actually another successful outcome of GE2020- that RTÉ are indeed a spent force with zero audience following them?

    On a side note, I’m personally very disappointed that Timmy Dooley lost out
    He didn’t think twice about giving two fingers to the Fianna Fáil delegates when it came to the Repeal campaign
    And faced down all the Matties and Healy Raes all over the South West, including many from Fianna Fáil – there was some craic on local radio. He was a Warrior down there on his own, and within his own Parliamentary Party long before Meehall had his own U-turn.
    And I think his work alone on that deserved to be remembered by the Clare Voters
    I don’t doubt we’ve seen the end of him
    But just wanted to say that about him

Comments are closed.