Poll Positions

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Red C poll in yesterday’s Sunday Business Post

Further to the results of yesterday’s Sunday Business Post/Red C poll

Geography lecturer and deputy head of the Geography Department at NUI Maynooth Adrian Kavanagh writes:

After little change in party support levels had been evidenced in the wake of the February general election, a series of opinion polls in July 2016 pointed to significant gains in support for Fianna Fail, pushing that party ahead of Fine Gael in terms of overall support levels.

The latest in series of Red C opinion polls more or less reflects the trend that has been established across all polls from July onwards; showing Fianna Fail standing a few percentage points ahead of Fine Gael in terms of overall support levels.

This also reflects the trend evidenced in the recent Behaviour & Attitudes poll, in which the two largest parties were both seen to lose some ground to Sinn Fein, Labour and the Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit. (This poll, however, sees the Social Democrats standing in notably stronger position than was the case with the Behaviour & Attitudes poll.)

The 25th September Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll estimates party support levels as follows: Fianna Fail 27% (down 2% relative to the previous Red C opinion poll), Independents and Others 26% (NC) – including Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 6%, Social Democrats 4%, Green Party 2%, Renua <1%, Independent Alliance 4%, Other Independents 10% – Fine Gael 25% (down 1%), Sinn Fein 15% (up 2%), Labour Party 7% (up 1%).

My constituency-level analysis of these poll figures estimates that party seat levels, should such national support trends be replicated in an actual general election, would be as follows: Fianna Fail 52, Fine Gael 44, Sinn Fein 23, Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit 8, Labour Party 7, Social Democrats 4, Independents 20.

As You Were More Or Less…: Constituency-level analysis of Sunday Business Post-Red C opinion poll (25th September 2016) (Adrian Kavanagh)

Red C poll: FF sees support slip for first time since election (Sunday Business Post)

Previously: For Whom The Polls Toll

Pic: Sunday Business Post

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20 thoughts on “Poll Positions

  1. edalicious

    Ah lads, can we not have a decent, effective center left party in this country? I’m getting a bit tired of FG and FF just swapping seats every couple of years.

      1. edalicious

        Yeah, I had high hopes for them but it looks like they just won’t have the numbers. Hopefully they’ll be able to make more of an impact soon.

  2. Sheik Yahbouti

    Ban all political polls (paid for by you and me). It has gone long past a joke. Leeches making money off the desire of other leeches to know what “de public” might be thinking. Urrrrrgh

    1. Harry Molloy

      we’re agreed!

      Polls is such an easy way to fill some newspaper columns but is meaningless and and boring and prompts boring discussion.

  3. Barry the Hatchet

    Ugh, fupp off with your fluctuations within the margin of error. This is not news. Polls are just another excuse for the political establishment to do what it loves best: talk about gossip, infighting, personalities and bullcrap predictions for the future, at the expense of any actual policy or useful analysis.

      1. Disco

        They’re not. They’re based on samples of 1000 people quota controlled to be nationally representative of the voting population.

        1. curmudegon

          ….and they have several polls, and each one gets different opnions/results, the people paying for them chooses to leak/publicise the one that best suits their purpose. The polling company will ring you up and ask you questions – but will refuse to answer your questions on who paid for the poll! BONUS – if i was paid for by either of the main two parties then they actually receive public monies for this (about 100k iirc) so we are effectively paying to be quizzed blind, and then manipulated (by the desired outcome that gets air time/published).

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